(+2.5) SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Buffalo at home
Some NFL teams are more affected by where the game is played than others.
In Bills games, the true home teams are 16-3 against the spread
Meaning that Buffalo covers at home - and doesn’t cover on the road
Last week – the Buffalo home crowd was extremely energized with the news that the team was likely to stay in Buffalo
Hard to expect that extra energy again the very next week
Buffalo not as good as 2-0 record
Scoreboard can be deceiving
Digging deeper
Last week, Miami had 10 more first downs than Buffalo [23 to 13]
and the week before
Chicago had 14 more first downs than Buffalo [29 to 15]
HUGE Buffalo letdown
Many do not understand how much playing Miami means to Buffalo.
Historically, after BEATING the Dolphins,
the Bills are 2-20 against the spread
*** MORE
Bills 11-38 ATS the week AFTER playing the Dolphins
Bills last 43 games: lost against the spread by a NET 113 points combined
Wiseguys really like Mike McCoy - Pro bettor David Malinksy called him “a coaching legend in development”
San Diego has not lost against the spread its last 7 games in September
Defensive strength of Buffalo is running QBs, likely not effective since SD throws the ball quickly.
10 am Pacific start for San Diego
SD: possible letdown after Seattle win.
Some giving credit to heat in San Diego’s win over Seattle
San Diego center OUT.
Early line (before last week’s games): SD -2.5
(-1) DALLAS (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Cowboys as favorite
Favorite means expected to win
and Dallas struggles to keep their focus
As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 4 of last 16
And when Dallas is favored after winning the last game
(giving them another reason to lose focus)
the Cowboys are 1-13 against the spread
St. Louis’ Coach Fisher
Strong as underdog throughout his career
winning 60% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [91-61 ATS]
Tony Romo
Has played well vs. the Rams
8 TDs and only 1 INT
*** MORE
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (47-19 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Cowboys, after winning a game: 7-18 ATS
Dallas has gained the 7th most yards in NFL
Dallas upgraded 2 points by Vegas after first two games
NFL West teams as underdogs: 21-7-1
(+6.5) WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at PHILY (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
RG3 vs. Kirk Cousins
Vegas says there is NO TANGIBLE DIFFERENCE either way
This line would be the same if RG3 had not been hurt.
Washington's Stats
Better many realize:
On offense, the Redskins have gained the 5th most yards after two weeks
and on defense, they’ve given up the FEWEST YARDS in the NFL!
Eagles in tough situation
Eagles tend to fall short at home:
Last 29 home games, they've covered only 7
Philly is off a tough Monday Night Game
And they play at San Francisco next week
Philly is banged-up bad on the offensive line
*** MORE
In fact, professional bettor Steve Fezzik told me Friday morning that
he would be “shocked” if this line doesn’t drop lower before kickoff
So if you like the dog, PLAY IT NOW.
May be some negative emotion for Washington regarding the diminished prospects of their franchise QB
Washington as underdog: 3-10 ATS
Philly: Outgained Indy by 117 yards
Philly fell behind against Jax, but ultimately outgained by over 110 yards
(-2) HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Giants not good
Last 13 times Giants have played against a team’s starting QB
they’ve won only TWICE and lost 11 times
2014 results deceiving?
NOTHING affects the scoreboard more than turnovers
And New York’s -5 margin is the WORST in the NFL.
Houston’s margin is +5 is 2nd best in the NFL
Texans have won both their games
even though they were outgained yardage-wise in each
furthering the case for deceiving results with these teams
Overreaction
Before last week’s games
the line on this game was New York favored by 3
Now, after only one game, the line has adjusted by 5 points!
*** MORE
NYG slow to pick up new offensive scheme
and sharps do not consider it a good scheme for Manning in the long-run
NYG downgraded by Vegas more than any team after two games
Houston upgraded by Vegas more than any team after two games
New York facing more pressure than typical 0-2 team
Giants winless ATS in September last year and this year (0-6 ATS)
At home:
Giants only 2 of 15 winning seasons ATS
Week 1: Houston first 3-13 or worse team to be favored in Week 1 since 1995 . . . now a road favorite for second straight week!
Houston to Oakland last week, and then to New York this week.
Only 2 teams have gained less yards than the Giants.
(+10) MINNESOTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Public LOVES the Saints
Though 0-2,
still only 3 teams with better Super Bowl odds [at Las Vegas SuperBook]
Wisguys like them too:
Vegas Ranks Saints as 3rd best team in NFL [via pro bettor Steve Fezzik]
Big Trends Backing Saints:
Last 18 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have NOT lost even once against the spread (17-0-1)
Saints when favored by a touchdown or more (with Coach Payton): 13-2 ATS
Saints off a road loss: 20-4 ATS [from 9/24/2007]
Vikings offense NOT suited to play from behind.
*** MORE
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) have covered only 5 of 39 games
Under Coach Payton: 24-13 ATS last 37 games
Coach Payton off a loss: 18-6 ATS
(+7) TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Cincy at home
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home during regular season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so. 1-0 SU and ATS in 2014
2014 overall could have been even more impressive
Cincy kicked more than an average amount of FGs the first two weeks – scores would have been even more impressive with an average amount of TDs.
Tennessee in bad spot
And Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 5 of 19 ATS
*** MORE
Check status of AJ Green
Home team in Titans games has covered only 4 of last 18
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 4 of last 21
(-1.5) BALTIMORE (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Ravens dominate Browns
Vs. Clev: Flacco 11-1 SU vs. Browns in career (8-4 ATS)
Same Cleveland team?
Browns 5-0 ATS with Hoyer as QB
but
Browns have yielded the 2nd most yards in the NFL
Forget Ray Rice
Vegas considers Ray Rice is a non-factor on the field.
Removing the distraction is a possible positive.
*** MORE
Rest: Baltimore 12-2 SU (9-5 ATS) under John Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest.
The SU winner of the last 30 Cleveland games has covered 26 times (spread has mattered only four times)
Browns: pro bettor David Malinsky told me perhaps worst skill players on a team in the last decade!
Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 15-36 against the spread.
(+2.5) GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Packers in strong situation
GB: 34-14 ATS in Division (including 12 of last 16 ATS)
Packers 21-13-1 ATS as underdogs
Vs GB: Lions have won only 2 of last 16 games vs. Packers (3-12-1 ATS)
With revenge:
Detroit pounded Green Bay 40-10 the last game (WITHOUT QB Rodgers)
Lions historically look better on paper
Detroit (overall since 2011): 19-32 ATS
*** MORE
Lions have yielded the 2nd fewest yards in NFL.
Early line (before last week’s games): Green Bay -1
(-7) INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Indy “Must Win”
When extreme motivation is obvious, the public tends to overvalue it
Wiseguys have considered Indy to be overrated for years . . .
Prior 2 seasons combined, Colts have been outgained by opponents
(Indy made playoffs both years)
Outgained this season also (by 117 years vs. Philly)
Jags have looked horrible
Bettors still remember horrible start from last year.
This year . . . 0-2 . . . Last 6 quarters: outscored 54-3
Jags lost 7 straight September games ATS
Jags at home: 4-12 ATS
Win by betting on WORST team
Home underdogs by more than a field goal off a 30+ point loss: 38-16-2
*** OTHER
Off a loss: Colts 13-1 ATS next game (lost last Monday off a loss)
Much better at home - Luck’s career:
Won 14-4 SU at home; 9-10 SU on road
First game in renovated stadium for Jacksonville
Jags outscored 64-3 in the SECOND HALF half this season.
Colts outscored Jags 67-13 last year.
Jax has yielded 13 sacks this season. Next most sacked team has yielded “only” 7.
Some experts believe the Colts to have the worst team in the league at all postions OTHER THAN at QB
(+14) OAKLAND (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Pats much better at home
The home team in New England games: 16-4 ATS
Raiders have lost 13 straight games in the Eastern Time Zone (4-9 ATS)
Pats crush reeling teams
Opponent who have lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 33-14 ATS (in Tom Brady era)
But Double Digits are tough
Patriots as double digit favs: 6-20 ATS
*** MORE
New England has won 38 of 41 regular season home games (SU)
Oakland play at New York in Week One, now back east Week Three.
Oakland worse than final scoreboard for Jets and Houston (down 27-0)
Bellichick vs. rookie QB
Patriots have gained only the 27th most yards in NFL.
(-3) SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 4:05 PM
Public heavy on San Fran
Backing them with 80% of the bets so far (http://SportsbookSpy.com)
Sharps also leaning that way
Strong situation for San Fran
San Fran’s ability to run the ball and control the game’s pace helps them on the road
San Fran’s last 11 road games
the 49ers have lost against the spread only ONCE
When San Fran loses a game as a favorite (like they did last week)
they’ve lost the next game against the spread only ONCE in 16 tries!
And against Arizona,
San Fran has covered 9 of 11
Carson Palmer’s value
Vegas considers Carson Palmer to be worth about 4 points
*** MORE
Arizona – 2nd best defense last yea (by advanced metrics)
Cards sneaky good: One of 6 teams last year to cover 10+ games
Cards at home last 10+ seasons (51-40 ATS)
49ers: Lost only 5 of last 18 games ATS
SF WITH Harbaugh: 35-19-4 ATS (65%) overall
Off Loss: Coach Harbaugh has lost 11 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only twice.
SF: 11-2-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
SF -4 in turnovers last week vs. Chicago
(NFL teams win 5% and cover 8% in that situation)
Arizona +4 in turnovers last week vs. Giants
(NFL teams win 95% and cover 92% in that situation)
NFC West teams as underdogs: 21-7-1
(+5) DENVER (2 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
First time in 33 games Denver not favored
(20-12 against the spread in prior 32)
Seattle at home
#1 home field advantage in NFL
Covering almost 70% since 2005
with Russell Wilson at QB: 18-1 SU
Last 3 seasons
Seattle has had 10 home competitive games
(defined as NOT being favored by more than a touchdown)
In those games
Seattle is a perfect 10 SU and ATS
beating the spread by over 14 points per game
Payton Manning has problems with loud crowds
Digging beyond the scoreboard
Even though Seattle’s record is only 1-1
Vegas Wiseguys have upgraded the Seahawks
considering them a better team than when entering the season
And even though Denver is undefeated
Vegas Wiseguys hae downgraded Denver
considering them to be a less team than expected
Super Bowl Rematch
Denver getting revenge for the Super Bowl
is a much talked about story line this week
but keep in mind that these two team played in the preseason
with Denver winning
and even though that was only preseason
this game not being the first rematch may take a little edge off the revenge
*** OTHER
Denver won 17 games since start of last season, winning 16 of them by a TD or more
Backers with bulging pockets:
Seattle: 24-9-1 ATS overall last 34 games
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (53-24-2)
On road during same period: 41% (32-46-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 99-56-3 (64% winners)
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 25-9-1 ATS
Seattle: 15-4-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
Seattle offense upgraded in David Malinsky’s power ratings more than any other unit in league after two games.
(+4) KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Dolphins favored at home
Dolphins, as a home favorite: 10-35 ATS (back to 2003)
KC on road
Andy Reid on road: 62% ATS in career (80-49 ATS)
KC overrated from hot 2013 start
2013: KC outgained 12 of 17 games last season
KC: Key defensive injuries early in 2014
*** OTHER
Alex Smith last 44 games as a starter: 31-12-1 SU
Road team in Miami games 57-40 ATS
KC: RB Charles OUT
Early line (before last week’s games): Miami -6.5
(+3.5) PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 8:30 PM
Carolina home – Pitt road
Carolina at home: 9-3 ATS
Steelers on road: 9-18 ATS streak
Extreme Turnover Margin
Carolina +6 turnover margin (alone atop NFL)
Steelers -4 turnover margin (only one team worse in NFL)
Overrated vs. Motivated to bounce back
ESPN ranks Carolina 6th . . . Vegas rankings has Panthers tied for 18th
Steelers, after NOT covering vs. Ravens, lost next game against the spread only 1 of last 10.
*** MORE
Pitt lost 7 straight ATS in September
After 1st half of 1st game, Pitt outscored 50-9
Ron Rivera, in three prior seasons, has started seasons 1-5 SU and 1-6 SU and 1-3 SU (2013) . . . 2-0 in 2014
Cam Newton in one-score games: 7-14 SU in career (won last 5)
Steelers yielded 157 yards rushing to Clev, then 183 to Baltimore.
Steelers have gained 6th most yards in NFL
(+3) CHICAGO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Early $
This game opened at PICK’EM
and the EARLY sharp money backed the Jets
Bears vs. Run
Bears CANNOT stop the run
Last season: they gave up 161 yards per game
This season: they’re giving up the EXACT SAME 161 yards per game
And the Jets LEAD the NFL in rushing after two games.
Line now Jets -3
The average home field advantage in the NFL is 3
But Vegas considers New York at home
to be WORTH LESS than that
(Jets as a home favorite: 53-87 ATS)
So, for the Jets being favored by 3 to make sense
it means the Jets must be a CLEARLY BETTER team than Chicago
Entering the season,
Chicago was projected by Vegas to win 1.5 more games than New York
It’s TOO EARLY to adjust these teams enough to say New York is better.
*** MORE
Chicago 29-15 first down edge in week one loss to Buffalo.
Bears have covered only 5 of last 18 games ATS
Game One:
Yardage count with 2:39 left in game:
NY Jets 404 Oakland 85
Game Two:
Jets Up 18 at Green Bay
Geno Smith: 25 ints and fumbles last year. Only 12 TD passes.
55% of passes complete last year.
Week 1: 82% of passes. 1 TD pass. But 2 turnovers last week.
Week 2: only competed 50% of passes. 1 Int (1 TD)
Chicago +4 in turnovers last week (NFL teams win 95% and cover 92% in that situation)
Bears when over/under total greater than 44: 14-40 ATS
Bears beat up on defense
Chicago plays Packers next week.
Tough travel for Chicago:
To SF last week for SNF
To New York this week