Docwatson said:
2* Atlanta -6
I have this at 7.25, and while Thursday nights have been tricky sometimes you just have to go with it when the numbers say so.Tampa is bad team who's defensive numbers look better than Atlanta's. However lets look at the opponents each have faced. Atlanta played a Saints team who they played with step for step and won at home. A Saints that on turf is usually going to score on any defense. Tamp was also at home that week vs a Carolinia team that has no serious playmakers and minus they're starting QB. Tampa trailed basically the whole game. Then they're against an 0-1 Rams team who also was missing their starter and a key D line player. The Rams won SU scoring in every quarter. Atlanta meanwhile was manhandled on the road at a consistent and good Cincinnati team. This will be Tampa's first road game at a place where Atlanta is known to play solid ball. Throw in that the Falcoons defensive is more aggressive upfront than any the Bucs have seen thus far, and to me it all adds up to a 2-Unit wager on Atlanta.
Doc
2* New Orleans -10
I have the Saints at 11.5 points here, and like the line value based on the loss to the Browns last week. They're playing they're first home game and come in at 0-2 in full desperation mode. Good thing is they take on one of the bottom third defensive units in the league while even though 0-2 the Saints have a top three offensive unit. These aren't NFL rankings I'm talking about it's my own assessment and rankings of each team that I do. Just like the Atlanta game Thursday sometimes you can't over analyze games. The Saints are 19-3-1 as home favorites since 2011 (4-0 when laying 10 to 13 points). Minnesota is 1-3-1 the L/3Y ATS as road dogs of 10 to 13.5 points.
1.5* Arizona +3
I have this line as San Francisco -2 as Drew Stanton gets the call again as starter for Arizona. Drew Stanton is a Bruce Arians guys with the HC bringing him over he was announced as head coach. The 49ers defense isn't as deep as in years past, and I think that will help Stanton. Arizona's defense is smart enough to contain Kapernick in the pocket, and they're will be no intimidation factor here since these are division foes. I have both defense ranked 11th to 15th, and the 49ers with a top 10 offense and Arizona with a 16th - 20th ranked unit on that side of the ball. Vernon Davis is out for the Niners and that takes away one of Kap's favorite targets. Arizona is 20-11 ATS as a dog since 2011, and 7-4 as home dogs during that time. San Francisco is 13-5 as road chalk since 11', and 12-3-1 ATS the L/3Y off a SU loss.
1* Dallas -1
Shame on me for taking the Cowboys as road favorites in any game, but my line here is Dallas by 3.25 points. The Cowboys offensive line has gotten better, and face a Rams defense that will be without Chris Long on the Defensive line. Dallas' defenses is still one of the worse in the league's, but the Rams offense is quickly sliding in that direction with the absence of a true NFL QB Plus today they'll be without deep threat Devon Austin, and Dallas gets they're best CB back with Scandrick coming off of suspension. I never thought I'd be laying points with Dallas this year, but they're at least 2-1 as road chalk of 2.5 or less, and 2-0 ATS vs. the Rams since 2011.
1* Baltimore -1.5
I had the Browns last week vs. New Orleans, and that win has given me some line value here as I have Baltimore -2.7 points for this matchup.Both teams are familiar with each others system's on both sides of the ball with ties going to Rex Ryan's defense a few years back in Baltimore, and Shannahan tying into Kubiac on offense. I've gotten Cleveland in the bottom 3rd of the league on offense with Baltimore 20th - 25th on that side of the ball. I'm just not seeing Hoyer being able to have much success today, and Flacco seems to have the Browns number with an 8-1 SU mark.
1* Kansas City +3.5 -120
I have Miami by 1 point in this contest today as the Dolphins QB Tannehill is on the verge of getting the hook here because of accuracy issues. The Chiefs will be without RB Charles thus the 1-unit wager here as the Dolphins secondary will be tough for Smith to find many open receivers. The Chiefs still have the edge on offense and special teams (killed Mia last week), and thus should wind up being a close game.
GL
Doc