"Those guys are idiots! Look at their recent records. When the field got big, the Consensus went into the Toilet"
I hear this stuff every year, as folks look at the SuperContest Consensus Plays Results. I shake my head, as these guys HAVE NO CLUE what is going on.
Many weeks, the SuperContest format literally forces you to make a play or two. THIS week the Play is Pats -3. THAT will be the no1 play. Det +3 will likely be the 2nd most popular play. The Contest could have 100 players or 1500 or 10,000. It would not matter!
IF NE-3 covers, then a big W gets posted as the Big Consensus play win. If the Vikes Win, all will talk about how the Contest Players have no clue, "THEY ARE GETTING KILLED!"
When evaluating how the Contest Players are doing, we should look at Consensus plays that are made vs. Widely Available Numbers.........the rest is just noise.