It's a great feeling knowing football will soon be back in our lives and I couldn't be happier. Last year I was part of a team that finished 15th out of over 1,000 entries in the world's most prestigious football handicapping contest (The Supercontest). It was an experience of a lifetime that has helped hone and sharpen my skills as a bettor and it's already paying dividends as I have uncovered what I believe to be the best bet bet on the board for week 1 in the NFL.
I believe JAGUARS/EAGLES UNDER 51.5 is one solid wager. The overarching big picture theory that leads me to this conclusion is that football is about adjustments. Throughout history new systems and trends develop and eventually opponents learn how to adjust to stop them. I think it's probable that the league will start adjusting to Chip Kelly and he won't have quite the same success as he did in his debut season. Kelly had the reputation of an offensive innovator while coaching in college and had immediate success when he took over the Eagles last year. No one was totally sure what to expect from Kelly but now that he has been in the league for a full season I expect opponents to start adjusting to his offense and slowing it down some. Plus the Jaguars will have had a ton of time to prepare and focus on stopping the Eagles' offense considering this is the opening game of the season.
Another reason I like the under is the Jaguars' defense. The Jaguars ranked tied for 21st in yards per play allowed last season but I think they will be better this year. Check out these tweets from Sports Illustrated's football writer Peter King who recently visited their camp:
On defense it all starts with the defensive line and it appears the Jaguars will be improved in that area in 2014. They added both starting defensive ends from the Seahawk's Super Bowl champion defense in Chris Clemmons and Red Bryant. (These players will be especially helpful against Chip Kelly's offense as I explain later in the write-up.)
Another major factor that supports the under is Eagles' loss of wide receiver DeSaun Jackson. Jackson was by far the Eagles' top receiver last year with 82 receptions, 1332 yards, and 9 touchdowns. The Eagles did not sign an elite receiver to replace him. The loss of Jackson is a huge blow but I think it will actually hurt the Eagles MORE than people realize. The reason I think this is because of the offensive system that Chip Kelly runs. The big misconception is that Kelly is all about the passing game when the truth is he focuses a lot on the running game. Last year the Eagles passed the ball 508 times and ran it 500 times. Kelly likes to employ zone read runs but with Jackson ( a true deep threat) gone opponents do not have to worry about him and instead can focus more on shutting down the Eagles' running game.
As you can see there is strong evidence here that points to value on the under which is why I am making it my best bet for week 1. Enjoy the season everyone!