Cleveland Cavs a Futures “Sucker Bet”
By Tony George
Well now that ESPN has us stuffed full, and over digested with LeBron James and his saga to return home, it is time to take a look into the future. I did an article about Media Influence last week in terms of Vegas line moves and public reaction, specifically ESPN’s ability to mold rumors into premature fact and then have it implode on them, all the while the hype and reporting influences the public reaction to the Las Vegas lines on futures bets. The Cavs futures bets is a perfect example of this, squares buy into it, sharps do not.
Cleveland sits currently at 3/1 to win the NBA Championship in 2015. Ironically and understandably they were 60/1 before the LeBron James rumors and eventual acquisition. If you are thinking that at 3 to1 Cleveland is going to win the NBA title next year, save a trip to Vegas and send me the cash, because I will take that action all day long. Bear in Mind LeBron could not win a title this year with D Wade, Bosh, Ray Allen, a better head coach than Cleveland, and a more experienced bench who have played for a title. They could not compete with the Spurs and could not win, and struggled even in the first round! So It is LeBron and a young team with Wiggins as their 1st pick in the draft (he is 2 years away from being a star NBA Player) and stud guard Irving, everyone else basically in diapers. Good luck on that. Of course in sports gaming never say never, but there are other teams in the East that are huge contenders.
The Chicago Bulls come to mind at 10/1 odds. Doug McDemott was a steal in the draft and in his first summer league game in Vegas put up 31 points in his debut! Add in Derrick Rose’s return (many have forgotten just how good he is), and Noah and Gasol now in house, plus one of the better coaches in the NBA, and many solid bench players, the Bulls are by far a better bet.
Now Miami by many has been written off, when in fact they may end up with as many wins if not more than Cleveland nest year, they have talent and Pat Riley is not done yet. Chris Bosh, D Wade, Deng and a cast of players with experience and no doubt a chip on their shoulder after being wiped off the planet by the media since LeBron has left, will in fact be a Playoff team in 2015, mark my words. Bear in mind Miami’s first draft pick Napier is going to be a rock star guard in the NBA.
There are at least 2 to 3 teams better than Cleveland on paper in the Eastern Conference. Will Cleveland make the playoffs and have a winning record and be a factor, of course they will. If they can somehow get Kevin Love in free agency it will help their cause but that will come at a price with a star player going out of town in a trade. I actually do not see ANY team in the East beating the Western Conference’s elite 3 or 4 teams nest year, whoever it ends up being, for a NBA Championship. That ends the argument right there. With the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, and Clippers all looking like the front runners in 2015, I see matchup problems all over the place for the elite teams in the East against in any scenario. Cleveland will make the playoffs with the best player in the NBA no doubt, but banking on them to win a Championship next year should be back to 30/1 odds, not 3/1. Remember Las Vegas sportsbooks LOVE to take square action and they will gladly take 3 to1 on Cleveland all day long and I doubt they break a sweat wondering if they have to pay $3 for every $1 bet on the Cavs.