Good Morning Gentlemen, well with today's smaller board and the fact that I already have tomorrow's board power-rated, it gives me an opportunity to discuss something with all of you guys that I have been meaning to for a while now and my clients will understand perfectly because its something that they have not already witnessed a lot of, but I keep repeating over and over...Yesterday's games offered me the perfect opportunity to write about this topic so here we go...
When I first began betting games for other people I got the opportunity to go to the offices where these so called "steam" moves were capped and sent out from for a few of the outfits...and one in particular that I later went to almost exculsively move for had the walls covered with all kind of facts, trends, %'s, numbers...and as I told you before, I didn't realize until that time just how little I knew about this racket...so to be honest, I never even paid them any mind because I wasn't capping the games and I hadn't become freindly enough just yet to ask questions...eventually I got to move inside more so I was surrounded by these freaking things every single day for years and although they changed, the were about the same things...and here is a few of the things that I remember to this day...
The one sign was "NFL & NCAAFB PROBABE OUTCOMES" and we all pretty much know what was listed because as bettors we hear it all the time...the most probablle number for a final score is "3"...and then we all know that 7, 6, 4, 10 are all key numbers and we want to base our wagers with that in mind every time because again...bottom line, its a numbers game...so without thinking it should become an automatic reflex that if you are about to place a bet and the number is 3...if you are taking the dog, buy it to 3.5 and if you are taking the fav, buy it down to 2.5...that is obvious and should ALWAYS be done...and I know that many will argue that in football and basketball laying -120 makes it harder because now its 12 to 10 which means that you have to hit a higher win % to make any money and that win% is actually right at about 54.5% and if you can hit 60% of your wagers, you can actually lay up to -150 and break even, so as long as you are straight with yourself, you should never have a problem knowing what your limit should be...thats all True...but consider that you are not going to be laying -120 on every single basketball and football wager you make, and it will Ultimately only be a handful of games that you will need to do this for because its not as if the only wager you make each day are on key numbers....so now that we got that out of the way...lets move on the the Topic at hand...
The next sign that I always saw and stuck in my head was, "NBA & NCAABB PROBABLE OUTCOMES"....and although I do not have the exact figures in front of me, but they aren't difficult to track down and truth is, after so many years of results I have just become a robot about it and do it almost instantly...now since in another few weeks we will have nothing but basketball garnering all the attention and the sport which we will all try to continue making money wagering on, I think that we should all be aware of this...The most IMPORTANT & KEY NUMBERS in Basketball are 6,5,4,3...and I believe its even in that sequence which really isn't what is important...now if we just stop and take a look at yesterday's basketball results, here is what we will find...
1 out of the 3 NBA Games fell on these Key Numbers....and "11" of Last Night's NCAABB Games fell on those numbers..."11" and it wasn't even a very big board at all...so you really need to always take that into consideration when you are wagering on baskets because its not my opinion, Its Fact....that games will end on these numbers more than any other, and therefore when the point-spread is on these numbers, we need to take that into account and based on our results overall as far as wagering is concerned, we can't be stubborn and think..."hey, if they are going to cover, then they are going to cover so why lay the -120"...As much as we all like to try and take the gamble out of sports betting and I believe that with discipline and money management, you can do so...we can not overlook the fact that Sports Wagering is a form of Gambling...and any form of gambling has a direct relation to the laws of probability...
The main difference between what we do and what a crap shooter does is that is that they are involved in a game where random selections will definately prevail and the true odds are represented accordingly over the "long run"...but with sports wagering, by adding one more dimension to the equation....handicapping we each have the ability to manipulate those true odds...but that is another topic all together that I hope to cover one day...
And I almost forgot...the one other sign on the wall that interested me the most and I feel that I should share this with you because its something you can all do and really improve your capping when baseball comes around...because it is by far a game that numbers cause it to be one of the most beatable...is a sign which had the exact Average of Runs Scored in each Ball Park Over the Last 2 Seasons...and I always make sure that I create one in March and think that its a great idea if you slowly do the same...I also have a great topic that I want to cover for the upcoming NFL Games this weekend and will try to do so after I am finished capping and Uploading tonight's plays for my clients and this one will blow your mind, because in all my years...if I hadn't heard it straight from a sportbook sup who knows his shit...I would have never thought that the players edge can be so huge...Thanks again, VR