2014 - 2015 NBA Record
169 – 130 @ 56% for +26.0 Units
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#1: Miami Heat -2
Revenge game for the Heat, after getting blown out by New Orleans at home last Saturday. The Pelicans got out to a very strong start in that one, winning by 11 after the first quarter. Of course that was also the game when both Davis and Anderson went down with injuries late in the 1st, though NO proceeded to hang on to a win. In addition, it’s important to note that it was Dragic’s first game with the Heat. Tonight will be his 4th with the team and I’d expect a much stronger performance. At the same time tonight’s game won’t be the 2nd of a b2b. Even though the game on Saturday was the 2nd of a b2b for both squads, there’s a big difference when you have a team with younger players (Evans, Gordon, Pondexter, Anderson, Cole, and Davis all 26 or younger) going up against a squad that relies on a bunch of old-timers (Wade 33, Deng 29 – with a ton of mileage, Haslem 34, Andersen 36, Chalmers 28). Both teams had a day-off yesterday and I don’t see fatigue being an issue. To me, the combination of Wade/Dragic is better than Evans/Gordon, and I also prefer Miami’s front-court of Whiteside/Deng to Asik/Cunningham. Expect the Miami team with a ‘championship’ pedigree to make the necessary adjustments tonight and pull out a road win in this one.
#2: Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
#3: UNDER 193.5 MIN/CHI
The drop from +6.5 indicates to me that Pau Gasol is very likely to miss tonight’s game. He left the shoot-around with an illness and I doubt he plays tonight. Even with Gasol in the lineup this matchup is very tough for Chicago because the Wolves possess something that typically gives the Bulls an advantage against most team – front court size. Pekovic, Dieng, and Garnett can matchup with Noah, Gasol/Gibson, minimizing Chicago’s “advantage” in the paint. In addition, the Wolves have two strong scorers in Martin and Wiggins, as well as a selfless facilitator in Rubio, making this team very tough to defend. In the past the Bulls would lose one or two key contributors and would rely on their defense to win games. This year, their defense is far from ‘elite’, ranking 12th in the league in Def-Eff. Without the two key scorers in Rose and Gasol (most likely out), I have a hard time seeing how Chicago covers this spread. Then again, both Rose and Gasol were primarily responsible for Chicago’s defensive issues as neither is any good on that side of the court. With Gibson in the lineup, expect a much stronger defensive focus from Chicago. Of course let’s not forget that Garnett’s impact on the other side is primarily on the defensive end for the Wolves. I know it’s only one game but Minnesota did limit the Wizards to 77 points and 38% from the field in Garnett’s first game back. Against a Bulls team missing their top-2 offensive weapons, I’d expect the Wolves to have success defensively once again. I think we’ll see a slow-paced, defensive game tonight, and I’ll grab the points as well as the UNDER in this one.
#4: Utah Jazz -5
With Nurkic and Arthur out tonight, this horrible Denver front-court is even more depleted. How in the world is Hickson and Faried going to contain the monsters that are Favors and Gobert? Utah should absolutely own the paint in this one, on both sides of the ball. Favors should be the focal point of the offense, while Gobert will protect the rim defensively. Utah is also playing with a ‘revenge’ angle after losing by 2 to the Nuggets very early in the year (Dec 1st). Favors did not play in that one while Gobert wasn’t being unleashed on the world just yet. I expect a very different result today. Utah is coming off a bad loss to the Lakers, a game where they were leading by 9 at home entering the 4th quarter. I think we’ll see a much more focused effort tonight from this team and the advantage in the paint should be enough to get a cover.
#5: Portland Trail Blazers -6
Watching the OKC/PHX game last night I couldn’t help and notice how absolutely exhausted Russell Westbrook looked. The guy played 43 minutes, scored 39 points, went to the FT-line 16 times, and even twisted his ankle on the last play of the game. Now he has to do it all over again the very next night. And keep in mind, it’s not just one game, as Westbrook had to carry this Thunder offense on his shoulders since Durant went down. Exerting that much energy game in and game out has to take it’s toll sometime, and I think tonight’s the night. Playing on a b2b, 3in4, and 6th time in 9 nights won’t be easy. Facing the 3rd ranked Portland defense will make things even more difficult. In Lopez and Aldridge, Portland has two guys capable of defending the paint and protecting the rim. So we might see Westbrook settle for long-range jump shots as opposed to attacking the rim with reckless abandon like he has been doing. At the same time, he’ll have to defend Damian Lillard, one of the premier PG’s in the game, thus negating the possibility of conserving his energy on the defensive end. It’s very hard to see Westbrook having a dominant game in this spot, and if he’s not performing at an ‘elite’ level, then this OKC team doesn’t have a strong shot at a competitive result. I like Portland to record a win and a cover at home.
#6: Milwaukee Bucks -6
When a bad team wins multiple games in a row, I try to find a way to fade them. Such is the case for the Lakers tonight. Coming off wins against BOS and UTA, I’m banking on the ‘let-down’ here. On the season, LA has 3 multi-game winning streaks. Here’s how they’ve done in the very next game: lost by 34 to DAL, lost by 16 to WAS, and lost by 19 to IND. The Bucks are 21-8 ATS on the road, 13-9 ATS as a favorite, and a ridiculous 21-9 ATS against teams with a ‘losing record’. One thing they know how to do is beat (and cover against) bad teams. These two teams played early in February, with the game going to OT. That first meeting came after two strong wins by the Bucks, against Portland at home and @ Toronto a few days prior. It was a natural ‘let-down’ spot for them, and they needed OT just to dispatch of the Lakers. Coming into tonight’s contest Milwaukee has lost 2 of their last 3 games with the only win coming against the lowly Sixers. I don’t see the Bucks taking the Lakers lightly this time around. Expect a strong effort from Milwaukee especially on the defensive end where they rank #2 this season.
Good Luck