Once again, another Bucks game the books have over-adjusted on the total. I'm not sure when they're going to get it right, but I think we are getting some line value with under 195.5 here.
Take a look, they put ZERO thought into this.
All they did was take each team's PPG, and add them together, and shaved it a little. Sad.
Earlier this week I mentioned in the Jazz/Bucks game that we were buying low on the OVER and that's exactly what we did. Today we'll need to dig into these numbers a little.
The streak of unders ended for MIL, but it wasn't because they changed anything they did, the books just literally shaved about 10 points of any recent total they had....it was as if we got to play a teaser free of charge.
If you take a look at the streak of unders, every one of those totals was greater than 192, all the way up to 209! Well, I think we get back to the trend starting tonight.
Also a strong lean to the surging Piston who have caught some heavy sharp action this morning. If you like it, I would grab -2, because it won't get much better than that, most of the value gone there already IMO.
Detroit is poor road shooting team, and there last 5 games are trending much of the same, shooting 42-43%. They're also a terrible FT shooting team around 68%..... I think the sharp money is right here, and DET should get it done, but it won't be in blowout fashion, making this a decent play under the total. Some early money brought this thing up about a point, but I would be surprised if we get to 190 in this game. This could very easily be a 88-78, 86-80 type game....but we'll see, that's why we play the games!
I'll take a shot at it.
DET -2
Under 195.5
FWIW, if you keep a watchful eye and remain patient, 196 is starting to become readily available.