2014 - 2015 NBA Record
50 – 26 @ 0% for +21.4 Units
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#1: New Orleans Pelicans +2.5
#2: Toronto Raptors -4
#3: Orlando Magic +5
Good Luck
Breakdowns
Fri 11/28:
GSW @ CHA +9
The Hornets are really struggling right now as they’re dealing with a ton of injuries and will be without MKG, Neal, and Marvin Williams today. Both Walker and Hairson will play but both have sustained some injuries in their last game, so might not be at 100%. While the Hornets are on a 7-game losing streak, the Warriors have won 7 in a row and the first 3 of their 5 roadies on this trip. This team has the #1 ranked D, and ranks 1st in both offensive eFG% and eFG%-a (against). Now that’s impressive. Are we going to see another blowout here?
Lean: GSW -9
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MIL @ DET -2.5
The Pistons are 0-5 ATS as a favorite while Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS on the road. In addition, the Bucks are 8-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. When they played @ DET earlier this year they were +5, now they’re +2.5. Pistons are without Brandon Jennings in this one, though he’s not good enough to cost a full 2.5 points. I think the bookmakers are just making an adjustment to this line. I do wish there were a few more points on the Bucks here though I would still lean them here slightly.
Lean: MIL +2.5
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NO @ ATL -2.5
Pellies are coming off a loss where Davis was feeling ill and didn’t play up to his potential. With 2 days off, I’m assuming he’ll be fully healthy and ready to take on this 26th ranked ATL defense. Atlanta hasn’t been very good against the ‘better’ teams in the league as only their win against Washington stands out. With both Asik and Davis working in the paint, this soft ATL interior D will get exposed. New Orleans has been a better team so far this year and I think they provide a tough matchup for the Hawks.
Lean: NO +2.5
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DAL @ TOR -4
The Mavericks lost to a HOU team missing Dwight Howard, they then lost to an undermanned IND squad at home, and needed OT and a comeback just to beat NY without Carmelo in the lineup. What is going on with this team? If they play like this against Toronto, this one will be a blowout. While Dallas ranks #1 in OffEff, Toronto is #2 in the league. In addition, the Raptors have excellent TO-rate offensively, which is an issue for the Mavs. Dallas ranks 14th in DefEff and their key defensive gameplan is to force havoc and generate TO’s. Well, it will be much more difficult against Toronto which ranks 2nd in TO-rate offensively. Tough matchup for Dallas here and taking on the best team in the East, they better hope they play better than they have in their last 3 games.
Lean: TOR -4
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ORL @ IND -5
The Pacers are getting West and CJ Watson back today, but they’ll still be without Hibbert. That means that Vucevic should have a strong game in this one as he’ll have an advantage in the paint. In addition, all of Orlando’s players are now healthy, including Harris, Fournier, and even O’Quinn. I think the Pacers are inflated by about a point or two in this one.
Lean: ORL +5
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NYK @ OKC -8.5
Knicks will be without Anthony. OKC will be WITH Westbrook, who is returning to the court today. The Knicks played hard last game, their first without Carmelo, as the backups and the rest of the starters stepped up. In the short-term teams typically exceed expectations when a star player goes down with injury and I think we might see another strong effort from NY tonight. Regardless, OKC is laying way too many points in this one from my perspective, with with Westbrook back in the lineup.
Lean: NYK +8.5
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LAC @ HOU +3.5
The Clippers will be playing their 6th straight road-game here as they close out their road-trip with a game @ Utah tomorrow. The Rockets have now won 3-in-a-row without Howard, beating teams like DAL and SAC (no Gay or Collison) in the process. Still they could be greatly overmatched here, especially since Beverley is out as well. Clippers have the size in the post (Jordan/Griffin) and an elite PG in Paul, and without Howard/Beverley, it’s going to be very difficult for the Rockets. Harden has carried the Rockets recently but he’s been very inefficient so far this season, shooting 39% from the field and only 33% from the 3PT line.
Lean: LAV -3.5
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SAC @ SAS -10.5
Wow, what an inflated line here. That was my first thought. Then I realized that Cousins is out and both Gay and Collison are questionable. Easy pass.
PASS
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PHX @ DEN -1
These teams just met on Wednesday, where Phoenix snapped Denver’s 5-game winning streak. Of course Nuggets were on a b2b and 3in4 spot, after beating Chicago the previous night. Now Denver will be at home and fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. Revenge time? Possibly, though the Suns are a slightly better team. Isaiah Thomas is GTD and Denver will be without Foye and McGee. This one could go either way IMO.
PASS
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MEM @ POR -4
Two top Western teams, who both rank in the top-10 offensively and defensively, square off in this one. The spread is right on and there’s no interesting angle I can find in this one. I’ll definitely be watching this one but I won’t have any action on the game.
PASS
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MIN @ LAL -5.5
Mo Williams is back for Minnesota, and this will be Thaddeus Young’s 2nd game since rejoining the team after his mom passed away. He was pretty awful in his first game going 1-10 from the field so I’d expect a bounce back tonight. At the same time, this is the first time all season that LA is a listed favorite. The question of course is why are they favorite by this many points? The Wolves are a terrible team, missing a number of key pieces, and as much as I’d love to back them here, I just can’t bring myself to do it.
PASS