JoeD said:
Hey Lloyd, it's been about 80 minutes since that post about lines, etc.....and my offshore book now has the Yankees at -200 / +170. The run line is now Yankees - 1 1/2 for +105. This happens all the time, the numbers change throughout the day. I have read enough of your posts over the years to realize that this type of line manipulation is something that a part-timer like me can probably never overcome. My Pregame handicapper will probably send out 2-5 more games today and the numbers have been jumping all over the place. He'll put out the games this afternoon and I'll play the games when I get to my computer or phone. I'll make the plays and just lay whatever the number is. Very rarely do I get as good a number as my pregame guy puts out......his favorites are always jacked up and his dogs never return as much as he says they will. Not his fault, just telling it like it is.
Can a recreational guy like me, playing bad numbers and paying for picks, win enough games to make this a profitable experience? I'm really second guessing this business model.
Joe D
Ok, I'm going to try to give you as good advice as I can so you can stop pissing your money away.....
First off, are you a sucker? Very much so. But that's OK, lots of people who bet are. The important thing is figuring out how to not become one. You don't have to be some sharp or wiseguy, just stop being taken advantage of, and stop doing things that are hurting you, not helping you.
Step 1: Get more outs
It is almost impossible to win when you are laying bad numbers. Many people are unwilling to put in the work it takes to have more outs, because thanks to Bill Frist, opening betting accounts is not nearly as easy as opening an EBAY account anymore. Many people are uncomfortable going to Wal Mart and sending $800 to Juan Jose Luis Zapada and that's understandable. The sports betting climate it not going to change anytime soon, so either you can "Be comfortable" and continue to lose, or step outside your comfort zone and at least be on the right path to winning. Trust me, it felt uncomfortable for me the first time I did it, now they all call me by my first name when I go in there.
Step 2:
Find someone to follow. Betting your own games is very difficult. Not only do you need to know how to properly handicap or follow the market, you also need the time to do it. It's a huge time commitment that many people do not have. You can find someone in the forums to follow, or you can buy.
Unfortunately, you cannot easily look up long term records for each handicapper (which should be the only criteria for who you buy from).
So this is what I would do.....
Go to every pro's personal thread and ask them for their long term records for at least three years. Ask that it also be broken down by sport. Tell them you understand 54% is an incredible job and you are looking to follow someone for the long term. Tell them they can PM you the information if they don't want it on their thread
1) If they don't have their records available (including broken down), don't buy
2) If they don't respond, don't buy
3) If they are not willing to but a winning record in their thread upon request, I personally would still cross that person off my list but I wouldn't make it an absolute.
Pick someone, and stay with them for at least the sport they have excelled in. It would be preferable to just find someone and bet with them the entire year, but it is not at all uncommon for someone to be better at one sport than another.
Once you pick someone, bet every single game they put out. Bet their big plays, their little plays, and everything in between.
-DO NOT CHERRY PICK
-DO NOT STOP BETTING AFTER THEY'VE LOST 5 IN A ROW
-DO NOT BUY OTHER CAPPERS WHO ARE "HOT" IF YOUR GUY IS IN A RUT
If you are going with a long term winning player, they will win in the long term, it's that simple.
Let me know if you have any other questions