Shay seem like good guy but type of beautiful mind style in the bar sense.

Unknown said:

Just to clear a few things up

1) I've no idea if the LVH contest is +EV or not but my insticnt lead me to believe it if if you're using optimum strategy and game theory

2) I'm not changing my outlook by looking to enetr a contest based on opinion because its not really opinion. I would consult with people who have knowledge on NFL and factor in what way I think the lines are moving to make my plays. I wouldn't make a pick because I 'fancy' a side

3) A question: Lets say that every week if you grade each line on the LVH sheet in order of far it beat closer how many enteries would you think would have the top 5? Again I've no idea the answer to this question but if you could get as many of these amongst you entries then you'd have a theoretical edge over a chunk of the field.

I've no problem with being proved wrong on any of the above as I wouldn't be looking to discuss this if I knew the answers!

Ha, I promise I'm not disagreeing with you just to disagree.  #3 is a very good point 

The problem is your method may be profitable but even if it hits at a 55% rate you win ZERO in the contest

Yes but theoretically if you select 53% sides as opposed to 50%, you still need a lot of variance to go your way, but you have a 3% head start

Lloyd Christmas said:

Yes but theoretically if you select 53% sides as opposed to 50%, you still need a lot of variance to go your way, but you have a 3% head start

That's where what I learn from you mixes with the handicapping skills of my partner.  The line moves are a factor but not a "blind" follow in the contest.  Sample size of 85 games a season is not enough to satisfy even the laziest math guy. I also have a "Toofdoc theory" that the line move could be from the public pushing money and I don't want to be on that side and will bet that the public side hits less than 50%.  If the public hits at 47% which I think is a very generous guess based on overall records of contest entries, then your 3% advantage in the line move only gets you back to 50%. 

The Wednesday line posted for the contest is a line that the casinos(even your beloved Pinny) was willing to accept wagers on and I rarely see middle opportunities in the NFL.  Just pick the winner!  

Unknown said:

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines.