Unknown said:
Lads you have to think big. No one can really quantify this bet so it's not mathmatically -EV. Like I said Llyod is wrong here, anyone who thinks smart and can afford to waste $1,800 needs to burn there cash on this. There's so much value in the pot.
Like I said before, you and Toof could be correct and there could be enough dead money for it to be a good investment besides just a fun thing to do.
I find it interesting considering how much you criticized people using their opinion to judge value, yet your opinion supersedes the basic math giving you your EV for the contest. If I've learned anything reading your stuff though, it's that you are not going to admit that you could possibly be wrong, nor can anyone's way besides your own possibly be the correct one.
So as far as you believing there is value just because you believe it, and I'm automatically wrong because I didn't have any way to quantify the specific influence of dead money in the pool, we're just going to have to agree to disagree on that one.
However.....
After reading Comptrbob's stuff, I have a change of opinion and believe there may in fact be value even with the proxy fee. It's been three years since he wrote that as well, and the influx of popularity in the contest surely has increased the dead money in the pool.
I'll still be sitting out this year since I already turned a couple of people down. Maybe in the future it will be something to look into though.