Shay -
First of all, you are an asset to this community, you are a must read and your efforts are appreciated. Thanks for taking the time to come on here.
OK, I have a problem with your "buying picks" analysis. It makes sense if a bettor is starting from scratch and operating in a finite bubble. But hey, that's hardly the case around here!
The point I'm making is that for a paid capper to be "profitable", he only has to be better than the person he's capping for. Here is an example.......
If Weekend Gambler plays $100 a unit and averages losing 1 unit a week in football, that's a $2500 loss for the season. ( I am a STIB (short term investment broker) in the sports industry, and ONLY losing one unit a week on average is actually way better than expected for a weekender!) If that Weekend Gambler had paid $500 for a season service and the paid handicapper only broke even, the Weekend Gambler would have made a $2000 "profit".
It's not finite....it's relative. I had about 20 players last season in football. 19 of those players would have been much better off, been way more "profitable", if they had used a professional handicapper and only played their picks. That's 19 of 20, year after year after year.
I'm not arguing with the math, and yes, you present your argument perfectly. What I am saying is that the Weekend Gambler is much worse than a coin toss and they would all benefit greatly from a paid handicapper....even if that professional only broke even.
Thanks again for your time and efforts.
With appreciation -
Joe D