WestcoastTycoon said:
A lot less quality content posts....
Here, I'll give you a quality post (I think). Gets more views here, anyways. It's tomorrow's MLB notes, FWIW:
Arizona-SF: This is Cahill's third start already. He's not even close to what he once was (another in a long line of pitchers that left pitcher friendly parks and fell apart). He JUST pitched against the Giants and did well, so I might look for SFO to make the adjustments here. And of course Hudson threw a three hit shutout against AZ in his first game for the Giants. Assuming all things being equal here, it's got to come down to the bullpens, and the D-Backs don't have one. Weather is not too shabby and a PM game here, so I could make a case for the over, which is low because of the aforementioned pitchers AND AT & T Park.
Washington-Miami: Even if the Marlins were 0-5 instead of in first place (I think) the Nationals do not need to be -190 to them for any reason whatsoever. I do realize the Fish haven't hit him, and Gio owned the Mets (you don't get points for that) but I would gladly take the Fish RL at what will be a cheap price. Alvarez struggled in his first start against Colorado, and of course the Nationals have hammered him in limited, but across the board, exposure. I guess IF the Nationals show up and have their A game with them, they could score those seven runs by themselves, so I take back what I said about the Fish RL.
Mets-Atlanta: A little surprised to see the Braves that cheap in their home opener, even with Harang on the mound. He had a no-hitter going into the 7th, I believe, in his last start. Truth with him is somewhere in the middle, I suppose. Colon has what Colon has (no PED's) and he's not going to walk many. If he's got decent stuff he keeps the ball on the ground, which can be a tough matchup for a Braves team that likes to play longball, ala the last game in Washington where Jordan just had them hacking at sinkers. Still couldn't touch the Mets, but could see the under here.
Cubs-Pirates: I was dead wrong about Jackson getting lit last year. I thought over the years his tendency to give up the long ball would be killer at Wrigley. McCutcheon has owned him, but I can see where the Cubs could be a viable home option. More so if they had a bullpen, but if Jackson can keep his pitch count down, you never know. Mortons' resurrection appears to be complete, but these teams/pitchers just faced each other and both pitchers out-performed the hitters. Since Morton is not that stout against LHH's I think I could go with the Cubbies here.
Cardinals-Reds: My least two favorite teams playing each other. They both OWN me. And of course we have to pitchers that also are Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde. Since they're playing the day game as I am doing this, I will wait to see what happens late, especially with bullpens. Another rematch, Bailey was torched by the Cardinals and the Reds torched Lynn. Maybe because the game is in a hitter friendly park and at night with a cross-wind, the total will be too high. But, it's already only 7.5 juiced to the under. Interesting.
Orioles-Yankees: Chen was completely lit up by Boston, so perhaps there's some value to taking Baltimore. Especially since Nova didn't look good and I have a tough time fading the Orioles against a right handed pitcher. Simply too much left handed power, and most of them have hit Nova pretty well. Orioles and over or nothing. But, day games must have lineups first.
Boston-Texas: Although we've got two potentially marginal pitchers and two potentially great offenses, the first thing that struck me was that total, given the odd start time, hence shadows. I know it's already gone to 9 and I also know the wind is supposed to be blowing out to RF pretty hard, but two LHP's may negate some of that. Plus, RF in Fenway, unless it's right down the line, is a long poke. Perez, I don't think, has pitched in Fenway, nor has he been as good against LHB's as one might think, so I gotta lean Boston here. But with Middlebrooks on the DL, not sure I can lay -140 here, really. Maybe over really is the best play.
Houston-Jays: Even though the Jays tend to hammer LHP that price is still pretty disrespectful to the Astros, IMO. The big advantage Toronto has is the day off while the Astros get hammered at home then fly to Canada. I do like Oberholtzer and he can get the punch out, so until the Jays see him a couple of at bats, I can see him keeping Houston in this, and maybe a nice little F5 bet. Is Buerhle as good as he was against the Rays? Probably not, and the Astros have seen him, some. He can get sloppy and give up the long ball on occasion. But, in the end, I can't justify the Astros for the game and lean under, if anything. Especially if somehow it goes to 9.
Rays-Royals: We'll see what happens in tonight's game, but Archer on the road is not Archer in the Trop, so we could see taking the Royals here. Especially given how much better they typically fare against right handed pitching. With the Rays not having seen Ventura, and if nothing silly happens on Monday with bullpens or other momentum-changing stuff, we could be taking the Royals. We'll see.
White Sox-Rockies: I always like to think that taking the DH away from the AL team is a painful cross to bear. And Quintana is just one of those pitchers that will have "the game of his life when you don't expect it". However, the Rockies don't fare as well against LHP (normally) but with Morneau having seen (and hit him) Jose in Minnesota, Jose never pitching in Coors Field, perhaps Colorado is the play. Bad news there, though, is even tho Morales pitched in Coors before Boston, he's not been a starter which brings the Rockies pen into play, more than likely, so this game could well be "the one" that goes over the big number. We'll see what happens with Paulino and Lyles on Monday.
Tigers-Dodgers: I don't THINK that Max should be that big of a favorite in LA without the DH thing, especially as well as Haren pitched last week, and the Dodgers have seen him before. No big deal without Kemp, because he was/is 0-16 against Max. But, because he was even better (stats) on the road last season I could make a reasonable case for the under here. Although Haren is probably somewhere between what he was last week and what he actually is (he'll give up bombs) I'd have to take the Dodgers here, especially where that total is only 6.5. Give me the better hitting pitcher, I suppose.