We were 1-1 yesterday in baseball, winning the 3-Star on Kansas City and losing the 1-Star on the Phillies. The Royals won wire-to-wire as a 125 dog in Toronto and the Phillies lost when Papelbon allowed two in the bottom of the ninth. Win or lose, we are proud of the the depth and breadth with which we analyze the games. Here are both write-ups from 7/5:
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Kansas City +125 over TORONTO – This is a very soft spot for the Jays, giving the Royals an excellent opportunity to steal one. The first time the Jays faced Hochevar this season, they won 4-3 in Kansas City. This is one reason that Toronto could be flat here, as they are 3-15 when facing a starter that is seeking same-season revenge for a 1-2 run team loss.
Toronto is off a couple of multiple-run wins and this can get them over-confident and sloppy. Yesterday, they combined to strand 15 runners, but won 4-1. In fact the Jays are 8-29 off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs, including 1-10 their last ten. The SDQL text is:
t:team=Blue Jays and NGT and p:hits*1.0/p:runs>=3 and p:W and 20050420<=date
The Royals have shown a hard-nosed demeanor in this spot. Kansas City is a very profitable 12-5 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and they are 10-6 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Hochevar has been the starter in four of the games as a road dog vs a team that won at least two straight. The Royals are 4-0 in these four starts. In the last two, Hochevar beat the Red Sox and Beckett as a 250 dog in Boston and this May 12th, he shut out the White Sox 5-0 beating Chris Sale.
Finally, what is the answer to the trivia question: which major league team has been the most profitable since early 2007 in the last game of a series with they are off a loss? The Answer is the Kansas City Royals. They are 86-82 in a series finale when they are off a loss producing a net profit of $2692 for a $100 player. There are team with better winning percentages that the Royals, but no team has made more money.
We expect an honest effort from the Royals here and that’s enough to get us on them at this price.
FORECAST: Kansas City 6 TORONTO 4
Philadelphia +115 over NY METS – In yesterday’s game, the Phillies trailed 2-0 after five innings and it looked like another loss for Cliff Lee. However, Philadelphia scored three runs in each of the last three innings to win 9-2 and break their six-game losing streak. They should be able to carry the momentum of that win into tonight’s game.
The Phillies have a chance at a series win here and they have been excellent in this spot in the past. Philadelphia is 9-0 as a DOG in the last game of a three-game series vs an NL foe when they lost the opener and won the second game. The SDQL text is:
team=Phillies and DC and series game=series games=3 and pp:L and p:W and 20070927<=date
That’s nine straight wins as a dog.
In addition, the Phillies are 13-1 when they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than off the opponent’s starter. They are 8-0 their last eight and a perfect 3-0 this season – never trailing in any of the three games. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Phillies and A and po:BPRA>po:SRA and p:W and date>=20101010<p>
New York is in a terrible spot. The Mets are 0-9 as a home favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.
Cole Hamels has been a terrific underdog, going 11-3 his last 14. This season, he has been a dog twice and he has won both; winning in Atlanta vs Beachy and in Washington vs Zimmerman.
In addition, Philadelphia is 8-2 on the road with Hamels when they lost his last start, with both losses quality starts by margins of 2-1 and 3-2.
This is the second time that the Phillies get to see Dickey this season, as he beat the Phillies with Cliff Lee by a score of 5-2, despite allowing NINE hits. This is a distinct advantage. The Mets are 1-1 with Dickey this season when he is facing a team he has already faced in 2012, allowing 10 runs in ten-and-a-third innings in those two starts.
We rate this one a toss-up, so the smart money is on Philadelphia.
FORECAST: Philadelphia 4 NY Mets 3
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A few posts ago in this thread, purks asked what kind of dogs I like. I responded: "I like dogs when playing against a favorite that is in a soft spot. There are many teams in the league that can be overconfident and lackadaisical when they are expected to win handily. When you get a dog that's playing with confidence, you can cash at a nice price."
This is exactly the reasoning for the play on the Royals +125. A gritty dog vs a soft favorite.
It should be clear from these write-ups that the linesmakers are no match for the PhD scientists at MTi Sports Forecasting. My triple-plays are now 2-0 at pregame.com and both were at least +125.
Now, I'm getting to work on today's games. Thanks for taking the time to read our analyses.
Dr M.