TexanSam said:
Dwayne,
I have followed you for a couple months, you started off on fire, but have hit a dry spell, even though I have not signed back up with you, I think you will get it right. You can do this man, I lost a chunk off your plays as well but I did not have to bet those games. If you are giving out your NFL plays free this weekend, i would love to see what you come up with. Just go back to the basics, like what you were doing a month ago just picking winners. Some NCAA bets have been questionable but man I have seen you do too good to go flat. Don't try too hard, use your system, stick to your gut and I am more than positive you can isolate a few games on Saturday and Sunday and will be profitable. The only question I had this past weekend was out of all the games on the ncaa board and your Max was West Virginia, made me think you are just not feeling it. There were so many other lines to get value. Best of luck!
Sam,
First, I'd like to thank you for communicating in a very mature manner. You have no idea how much I've come to appreciate that. I wish I was kidding, but sadly I am not.
I'd also like to thank you for the words of encouragement. But truth be told, I'm very confident that I will have winning seasons in both college & pro football. My current season-to-date records are:
- NFL = 12-11 (52%) +0.25 Units
- CFB = 14-12 (54%) -0.20 Units
So even with this current NFL skid included, my season-long subscribers are basically out the package fee right now (assuming they're betting according to the Units I advise on each play). My current records actually do not surprise me. Generally, every season starts this way. I'm not saying I usually start hot for a few weeks & then go on a long skid, but I am saying I'm usually around the break-even point or worse in mid-October. I always get better as the seasons go on because I'm a very stat-based capper. So naturally the more current-season data I have, the better I do.
So in the NFL, I started 12-4 and have now lost seven straight (pushes excluded). Obviously, if I had never won or lost more than two in a row on those 23 NFL plays, nothing much would be said. But not everyone is a season subscriber. Some saw the 12-4 start & jumped in the last two Sundays & got buried. As I said in a previous post, I don't have the words to accurately describe how lousy I feel about that. But how I feel doesn't matter. My customers deserve better & the only thing that makes up for money lost is money won. So hopefully these next two free Sundays will help guys recover some or all of their losses.
Having said that, I will not put out a bunch of plays. As you said, I'm going back to being very selective because that's the style that has always worked best for me. I'm 6-3 the last two Saturdays, so I'm confident I have the college season heading in the right direction. Just need to get the NFL bets back on track. I'll definitely be going back to only two or three NFL bets for Sundays.
As for West Virginia, I had them winning by two TDs, so I saw eight points of value in laying the -6. Obviously after a second straight "SU win / ATS loss" on WVU, it's pretty clear I had them overvalued. Adjustments have been made. But I can't help but think that, if Lambert doesn't hit that 55-yard FG on the final play (how many college kickers hit a 55-yarder at all, let alone on the final play?), WVU wins by a TD in OT as they had all the momentum. Or maybe I'm fooling myself. Doesn't really matter at this point. I still can't complain about the last two college Saturdays. That's not the issue. I'll definitely be more selective with my NFL plays from here on out. I'm very confident that I will more than make up for the last two Sundays when this NFL season is all said & done.
Again, thanks for the mature post. I really do appreciate it. Best of luck to you as well, Sam.