bryanoz said:
Hi Dave,
Have been with you for 35 days and very happy with the results !
Just wanted your clarification on something, I have been flat betting as I read in an earlier post you said not to bet 3x your normal bet on a 3* release, but then today you seem to be saying that although we went 1 and 4, it was only a small loss due to the 3* win !?
Am interested in your thoughts on bet size, again very happy with results so far, and am planning to stay long term.
Cheers from the Adelaide Hills, Australia !
Great question and one that I am glad to answer publicly. First off I have no problem bumping it up SOME on a 3* bet. In this "industry" we are usually judged by the almighty "unit" and they are not all created equal - even within Pregame there are some of us that make a lot of 3* plays, some make their " standard " bet 2* ,and for whatever reason I make mine 1*. I may reconsider but that's a later topic. So, from a marketing standpoint, the part of this I like the least, it can work both ways. We can look better with a 1-4 day like yesterday (although many people that buy daily only want and bet the 3* plays which we don't have every day) or conversely if we had made all those 1* plays into 2* (standard) plays we'd be up, from a "unit' standpoint", well over 100* in MLB this year. So, it's a double edged sword. If we made one 3* play and lost, but WON three 1" plays, assuming they are all -110, then "on paper" we (I) would go 3-1and yet lose a little, and that has happened. When THAT happens, the daily people that only buy and bet the 3*, are pissed because some don't even play them all. I suppose it does even out like most things do - but that is the harsh reality. And if you compare someone on Pregame to someone elsewhere that uses 5* plays - then it's apples to oranges. I admire you for both asking and "sticking to the plan", as many people bet too much on 3* plays and we know from experience and simple math that that's a recipe for a short-term lived betting cycle.