Point Blank – May 24, 2017
On why a Win may matter for Sonny Gray…Who is going to pitch for Arizona today? Just about everybody…
For an extended stretch last night it genuinely looked as though the Eastern Conference Finals were going to become competitive, but then Kyrie Irving’s third quarter happened; LeBron James became aggressive in attacking the paint again after a stretch of passive play that defies an easy answer; and the Boston interior defense remained the sieve it was in Game’s #1 and #2. The Cavaliers took 40 of their 74 shots in the paint, making 29 of them, and are now a step closer to the Golden State series.
There will be more details on that one as the handicap gets built for Game #5 in tomorrow’s edition, the markets already making a statement in pushing Cleveland to -10.5 in one key precinct. The Celtics may still have a will, but do they have a way, only coming down with 40 percent of the available rebounds in last night’s defeat. Now time for the MLB Diamonds to come front and center, and it starts with whether or not there may be a buy signal out there for Sonny Gray…
Item: Sonny Gray’s win may mean something
One of the details you may not notice the absence of in the discussions of MLB starting pitchers here is their W/L record, largely because for the most part that category does not bring a lot of predictive value. Of course omissions are difficult to see. The focus instead is in trying to determine through all of the various performance details just how well, or poorly, each pitcher performs in terms of run prevention, and that leads to the most efficient ways of generating power ratings.
This is different than in other sports, when a QB or a key basketball player (think primary ball-handler, which is not necessarily the PG anymore) can and should be measured at crunch time – the ability of a starter to make things happen at those key times, and hence have a greater impact in getting wins, is moot because they are rarely out there.
But there are occasions on which I will mention wins, and the reference is usually going to reflect what a “W” can mean to their own psyche, and confidence level. As such I am of the belief that it may be time to give a close look to Gray.
Gray came up quickly through the Oakland organization after being a first round draft pick in 2011, putting together back-to-back campaigns of 14-10/3.08 in 2014 and 14-7/2.73 in 2015, that showed the potential to reach ace status. Then it came apart in an injury-riddled 2016, the bottom line reading 5-11/5.69, which means that this season was more than just about getting back on track physically, but also the mental toll of what allowing more than twice as many runs per inning as the previous season, and getting tagged with so many defeats, can mean.
Gray’s debut did not go well, the Twins tagging him for three home runs in an ugly 9-1 loss. While the A’s did beat Detroit 8-6 in his second outing he labored to a 21.0 PPI, and could not finish the fifth inning. There was a pattern there, Grady getting to two strikes on hitters and not being able to finish, which raised questions about either his stuff, or his stamina.
The bottom line at Texas was much better in Game #3, Gray leaving with a 3-2 lead that the bullpen could not hold, but again there was the problem of finishing hitters, and when Bob Melvin offered “He was good. He just ran out of pitches” it kept the concerns up about stuff/stamina, with a single-game SWS% of 5.7 a concern. But at least there were signs of a progression in place.
Then start #4 brought the psychology of baseball into play. One appearance after he had pitched pretty well, but did not get the bullpen support to hang on to a win, Gray struggled early vs. Boston and fell behind 2-0 in the first inning. His teammates responded with three in the bottom of the inning, and we can chart that as having mattered because Gray said it did - "I really wasn't really ready to pitch there in the first, and they made me pay for it, but to be able to get out of that inning with two runs, and the offense putting up a three-spot right after that, that was really the kick I needed to try to put up some zeros from there."
Gray then began to look like the pitcher of 2014-15, leaving with an 8-3 lead after six innings, more strikeouts than base-runners allowed in a game in which his SWS% elevated to 15.5. And when contact was made it was on the ground, a 57.1 GB% that marked three straight starts of being at that level or higher (his career is 54.2). It was good pitching in terms of run prevention, but it also got rewarded with a win, the first for Gray since July 26 of last summer, and in this instance that “W” really may mean something. His words - "I wasn't aware of how long, but as a pitcher you want to win games. Everything else will come as is, but when you go out there, you want to start a game that the team wins, and I think that's the most important thing as a pitcher, is to win.”
From the standpoint of baseball handicapping fundamentals, can the case be now made that Gray was simply rushed by the A’s, only getting two Minor League starts, and needed those first couple of games to build his stamina? There is some foundation for that. And what happens to a team when they see their best pitcher get it done? Let’s go to catcher Stephen Vogt after the win over the Red Sox - "It's huge. He's our anchor, our ace. To see him throw like that tonight, that's him. When he's going and doing what he does best, we feel good every time he takes the mound."
I bit off a piece of #924 Oakland this morning, before the price moved off the bargain shelf (consider value to hold to -130). A key is that Edinson Volquez continues to labor, having fallen to a 10-17/5.28 over the past two seasons combined, and sitting on career-lows in BB% and GB%. When a pitcher is struggling with command it is not easy to eat innings, and that matters here, with fatigue ratings attached to key Miami bullpen cogs Kyle Barraclough and AJ Ramos, who each threw 34 pitches in Tuesday’s win and are vulnerable in a Night-to-Day setting (there is also the likely prospect of Christian Yelich sitting out).
Item: Will R-O-L-A-I-D-S work for the Diamondbacks?
There is both some unusual pre-game handicapping, and In-Running charting, on tap at Chase Field this afternoon. The Diamondbacks will be starting Randall Delgado, not as any kind of change in their plans for him, but simply as the first stage of a “bullpen by committee” affair, brought into play because of Taijuan Walker joining Shelby Miller on the DL, and no one from AAA in the proper cycle (they would have preferred Brandon Shipley, but he started on Sunday).
Delgado did come up to the major’s as a starter, but over the past three seasons 157 of 158 appearances have been in relief. So how far will he go? From Troy Lovullo - “I’m not going to put a number on it. What we’re asking him to do is go as hard as he can for as long as he can, not change his routine, not change his game-day prep. Just walk into that start doing exactly what he’s been doing because he’s been locked-in and throwing the ball very well.”
In terms of early-game props it is a conundrum – Delgado will be working for only the second time in 10 days, so is he fresh or rusty? And behind him there are multiple Arizona relievers with starting experience, including Archie Bradley and Jorge De La Rosa, which at another time would mean the ability to stretch out a bit, except Bradly has worked back-to-back nights, and De La Rosa also appeared on Tuesday.
This is the kind of setting that makes a full game handicap extremely difficult, but should it break open early there could be a “take one for the team” element coming into play (the Diamondbacks board a plane for Milwaukee after the game), which may well open up an In-Running option.
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