Point Blank – April 6, 2017
Can Harvey/Shields get 2016 out of their heads (yes, it is ELO day on the jukebox)…Do the Celtics have a glass jaw…
It is the psychology of sport taking the lead today across multiple fronts – the 2017 debuts of Matt Harvey and James Shields offering seminars in how what is inside the head of a pitcher plays such an important role, and also a morning-after look back at the Celtics, and pondering if they still may not have a mental toughness needed to be factors in the upcoming NBA playoffs.
These particular issues falling as they do make the jukebox call an easy one, with the focus on highlighting the 2017 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame class, the induction ceremonies tomorrow night. It is a pertinent time to go to Jeff Lynne and ELO, with a recent performance of “Can’t Get It Out of My Head” , an elegant version that any Sports Bettor should keep on file for the morning after suffering a bad beat -
Now time to find out whether Shields and Harvey are capable of doing just that off of dismal 2016 campaigns…
Item: Has James Shields already passed a point of no return
For Shields to decline in recent seasons was not a shock, a guy once known well as “Big Game James” may have simply been in too many of them – he had nine consecutive campaigns of more than 200 innings pitched heading into 2016, something that we are likely to never see again. But to go from 13-7/3.91 to 6-19/5.85 in a single season, including 4-12/6.77 in his 22 starts with the White Sox, was rather shocking.
First note that some of the signs of aging were already there – Shields’ 2015 was aided by home games at Petco Park, where he sported a 3.29 ERA, compared to 4.50 on the road. Yet even in pitcher-friendly Petco he was tagged for 19 home runs over 98.1 frames, which should have set off alarms for teams interesting in bringing him on board. His 2015 BB/9 was a career-high 3.6, more than double the previous season, and it led to a career-high 4.45 FIP. The red flags were there.
2016 was an unmitigated pitching disaster. There wasn’t any bad luck involved, with a BABIP of .302 and a 72.7 LOB% near the MLB average. It was bad pitching, Shields setting career lows in every meaningful category – W/L, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, GB%, HR/FB% and SWS%.
So now the big question for 2017 – is he a savvy veteran that can reach back for something, or does throwing over 2,000 innings across a 10-year span simply empty the tank. I was trying to read between the lines during the off-season for an indication that perhaps he was injured last summer and did not let on, but most of what I found was non-commital player-speak – “Every season is different. That’s one thing about this game — no matter how long you play you have to make adjustments. I feel like I’ve made pretty good adjustments this offseason, and I’m looking forward to the season.”
Is there anything he can adjust with? Between 2014 and 2016 Shields lost a full two mph off of his fast-ball, and at the age of 35 you don’t get that back. There wasn’t anything special to see from his Spring Training offerings, when he walked seven batters across 15.2 IP in four outings. I am going to be in play from the get-go against him, today using #916 White Sox/Tigers Over (2:10 Eastern) as the path, with 9 easy to find in the current trading. Although it will be a cold day at U.S. Cellular Field, which ordinarily favors the pitchers, a strong wind is not good for Shields, fly-baller Matt Boyd, or some uninspiring bullpens. The early-season MLB wagers are for only a moderate volume, but this one fits.
How serious are those winds? The direction is out to right-center -
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...
- Location: Near the lake shore mainly from Chicago southward.
- Timing: Through early to mid afternoon.
- Winds: Sustained north winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
- IMPACTS: Damage to trees...power lines and personal property are possible with winds of this magnitude. Driving may be made difficult for high profile vehicles. High waves along the Lake Michigan shore may cause lakeshore flooding.
Item: It’s 2017, do we know who Matt Harvey is?
Remember not too long ago when Harvey was a budding superstar, and Terry Collins had to make a decision about sending him out for the 9th inning of a World Series game vs. Kansas City? Of course you do. But now comes the task of blending that memory with a pitcher that worked to a miserable 4-10/4.86 in 2016, when Harvey’s struggles were made a feature topic here on multiple occasions. Now comes the question of just who is Harvey as a new campaign approaches.
In this instance the issues were physical, but with pitcher’s physical issues automatically become something for the psyche as well. In Harvey’s case it is a serious one, Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which is a nerve and blood vessel problem in the chest and shoulders area. It raises genuine questions as to both how much of his physical skills he will be able to retain, and also how he works around them as a pitcher.
Spring Training provided a mixed bag because in the early stages he was just trying to work his way into shape, but he did manage to hit 96 on the radar guns as he progressed. The performance numbers were a 5.89 allowance, mostly the result of contact, with 23 hits and three HR over 18.1 frames, but his ratio of 16 Ks vs. 3 BB showed command of the strike zone.
The focus tonight will be on two areas – the radar gun and his comfort zone. Let’s start with Harvey’s own words - “I’m not looking to throw 100 mph again or 97 even. My job is to get people out no matter what I’m throwing, and I’m looking forward to it. The velocity is going to be there or it’s not, and I have to go out there and pitch.”
And Terry Collins backs that up - “He’s just got to get his command going, and I think he’s going to be fine. He threw some very good changeups, but he wanted to get that slider working a little bit better, but he’s making progress. I am not worried about velocity. I am worried about command. If his command is good, he can pitch.”
Does Harvey have the moxie to be effective by working the strike zone without necessarily overpowering hitters? That is a lot to ask from someone that only has two seasons of more than 100 IP under his belt, and those may have been seasons with different physical tools than what he has now. In this instance I will only be sitting back and watching, before establishing an early-season power rating, but I will certainly be watching closely.
I was also watching Cleveland/Boston closely on the hardwoods last night, and because there was an early shredding of a ticket I naturally did not like much of what I saw…
Item: Do the Celtics have the toughness to be a playoff contender
Wednesday was an ideal setting for Boston to play well in a statement game. The Celtics had two full days off to prepare for that showdown, while catching the Cavs at the end of a five-games-in-seven-nights cycle, and also coming in without Tristan Thompson. Yet it was a thud for Brad Stevens and his team, falling behind by 15 by halftime and never amounting a challenge.
It does raise a serious question going forward – in what was the biggest regular season game the current group had ever played, does that lack of post-season success remain a barrier in their psyche? Not only has this group not won a playoff series, but they have yet to win a single road game in the post-season. Instead of being aggressive in attacking the Cleveland lack of size and depth around the basket the Boston players were noticeably timid, settling far too often for perimeter shots, and getting whipped 51-38 on the boards.
Of course there was LeBron James stepping up to set the tone, with 36 points, 10 rebounds and six assists (although why he was out there for 38:33 in a game that was never in doubt from the middle of the second quarter on is an on-going conundrum), but LeBron can do that, having a legacy of being able to elevate. The Celtics will likely enter the playoffs with the #2 seed in the East, which usually translates to being a contender, but…
Here was the Stevens take afterwards – “You name it, they were better in every category and made it really tough on us. They played with more purpose, more pace. Again, you name it, they won it.”
That is troublesome. If there was a particular fundamental matchup issue being identified it would be easier to grasp, but items like “pace” and “purpose” were not areas in which Boston was overmatched going in. The Celtics failed to step up, and it raises a question going forward as to how much they believe in their abilities.
About Last Night, NBA…
There is one team outside of Cleveland that may have that swagger and ability to step up, the Toronto Raptors, who have been a topic for discussion a few times here since picking up Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. Last night saw the return of Kyle Lowry a little ahead of schedule, and it is worth filing away just how effective he was, and how that win at Detroit flowed, the Raptors rallying from being down by as many as 26 points to come away with a 105-102 triumph.
One of the keys in liking the Toronto chances was that Lowry’s wrist injury had a chance to be a blessing in disguise. He was gassed in the playoffs las year, but having saved 21 games worth of workload can be meaningful this time around, all the while it was an injury that allowed him to keep up his conditioning work. How easy was his assimilation back? Lowry was out there for 41:49 at Detroit, with 27 points on 9-16 shooting, with 10 assists vs. only 2 turnovers.
As the standings currently lay out the Raptors would be facing the Celtics in the second round if both hold serve in their opening playoff series, and that is a matchup the markets could easily misread, especially with Boston having the home court advantage.
Item: About Last Night, NBA II...
Yes, for all sports bettors and stat keepers last night's Lakers/Spurs fiasco deserves attention, but that one calls for so much that I will save it for the Friday lead. It was truly an all-timer...
Item: It’s always College Football season
With the NBA playoffs ahead and the MLB season getting into full steam there will not be much space here to deal with the NCAA gridirons in their busy off-season cycles, but in truth there is a lot of filing away of various details from the spring practices, which helps in getting a step ahead before the 2017 kickoffs take place.
There is a good source that you can be following right now, Podcast cohort Brad Powers, and his calendar for the off-season can be found right here. Note that inside of that are listings of work that he has already done, including his dedication to be on-site for the UNLV Spring Game last Saturday. Brad is doing some excellent work, and I will link to many of his specific takes as they are posted.
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