Point Blank – March 8, 2017
Tourney Time – On “Courting” advantages (not really any “Black Magic” anywhere this time, except from Peter Green)…Yes, Ian Mahimni was good last night, but not that good…
It is time to go wall-to-wall basketball now, four consecutive days of games playing out for about 15 consecutivehours, and as noted yesterday it is not only one of my favorite times of the sports calendar year, but annually among the most profitable as well.
Today the focus switches to the venues themselves to see if there may be some edges available, and also to note some of the general issues that are in play when studying the court values. This time around there isn’t anything all that magical, except for today’s background, which takes us quite a way back, to Boston in 1970, as we continue Peter Green Week. The sound and video don’t sync up perfectly, but we should feel glad that any video at all has survived from that night, Green and Fleetwood Mac with the original “Black Magic Woman”, which became an iconic hit for Carlos Santana later. You’ll get some snippets of Mick Fleetwood and John McVie in their youth, with Green trading licks with Danny Kirwan, which brings all sorts of “what might have been” notions into play -
Now let’s take a tour of some of the major conference venues, listed in the order they first appear in the schedule rotation…
ACC (Barclay’s Center - Brooklyn)
This is the first go-round for the conference at this setting, and the brackets also bring some double-bye issues into play. The double-bye adds an element that was discussed here yesterday in terms of fatigue – at a new venue, might it be the teams that have already played, and have had a chance to settle in, that might have a slight edge over those that have not played yet, instead of it being freshness vs. fatigue?
Here is something that is important on that front in terms of the Wednesday transitions into Thursday across various leagues – the ACC, CUSA, Sun Belt (which I don’t track), Mountain West and Pac 12 have what I call a “blanket” today. That means games going on all day, and there is something that matters from that – the teams that open tourney play on Thursday do not even get a chance to practice on those courts today. That is a lesser factor if it is a venue that they are all familiar with, but that is not the case for several of them, including the ACC.
In terms of crowd I do not see enough of an advantage building for any team to alter the ratings. Syracuse fans will out-number Miami fans for the opener, but in the first round the tickets are spread out so much among the eight teams that no school can claim enough to have impact (and it is also why you will see a lot of empty seats, with only the true fan sitting through all four games).
CUSA (Legacy Arena – Birmingham)
Note that while UAB is playing near home, the Blazers have not played a game in this arena yet this season. Give them an advantage for sleeping in their own beds and being in their usual routines, and also what should be decent crowd support. I have it one point less than a usual home game.
MOUNTAIN WEST (Thomas & Mack Center - Las Vegas)
The demise of this conference in terms of overall quality will make this an awkward setting – there was even talk of putting a tarp across the upper reaches so that it will not look so empty on television. Once upon a time New Mexico and San Diego State could be trusted to bring a lot of fans, a weekend in Las Vegas never a bad thing (flights are so easy to find), but will those same fans show up if they don’t expect their teams to win multiple games?
Host UNLV will not have any special advantage, especially with the inconvenient 4 PM local starting time for the Wednesday Rebel tipoff. The wild card here may be Nevada. This is the first time that the Wolfpack come in as the favorite, and might that lead to a strong showing? It is something to look for when they take the court on Thursday, and then carry that over.
PAC 12 (T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas)
While the Pac 12 has been in Las Vegas for several years now, the venue shifts from the MGM Grand across the Strip to the T-Mobile Arena. This could provide a slight edge for the Wednesday winners, who have the opportunity to settle in, although you should note that UCLA beat Ohio State 86-73 at T-Mobile back in mid-December.
BIG 10 (Verizon Center – Washington)
This is an interesting gamble by the conference because there are some long trips involved for many of the teams, and attendance may be underwhelming. Maryland should get a crowd boost, which will grow throughout the rounds (should the Terrapins advance to Sunday might come close to sounding like a home game), and the Terrapins did have a chance to play here earlier, beating Georgetown 76-75 back in mid-November.
A10 (PPG Paints Arena – Pittsburgh)
Another gamble being made by a conference, with only Duquesne within 200 miles of the arena. This is not the home court for the Dukes, but it is only a couple of blocks from campus and they do maintain their own locker room at the facility. They have played three games here this season, vs. Pittsburgh, Robert Morris and Dayton, so naturally that means a little bit of familiarity for the Flyers. I will check the early rounds to see if any team has much of a following – perhaps it would be Dayton, their fans being able to anticipate a run to Sunday, but these crowds will not be special.
BIG EAST (Madison Square Garden - New York)
Still the greatest basketball venue of them all, architecturally designed so well for hosting games, and a savvy local crowd that appreciates the sport being played well. I was fortunate enough as a young sportswriter to cover a game there venue before my 21st birthday, a West Virginia/Tulsa NIT semi-final matchup the excuse (the newspaper OK’d it because I could get a cheap bus ticket and ride with WVU students), which also brought the opportunity to see a Purdue/Syracuse night-cap (this was before the NCAA expanded to 64 teams, so there was some outstanding talent on the court).
While St. John’s is comfortable playing here I do not give the Red Storm much of an advantage – the other schools travel well in terms of fan support, and not only do the other teams usually get a regular season road game in the Garden, but often there are some pre-conference appearances as well. Note that the St. John’s games vs. Butler and DePaul were played at Carnesecca Arena on campus this season.
BIG 12 (Sprint Center – Kansas City)
This has become an annual, as is the SEC next to come, and note that also happens annually for each – Kansas and Kentucky fans will be there in abundance. Over time they learn the drill in terms of getting as many tickets as possible, and note one of the significant factors behind that – getting into Phog Allen Fieldhouse or Rupp Arena is not easy, so these tourneys offer fans from two schools with huge followings the opportunity to attend games that they have not had during the regular season.
Note that Kansas has already played here twice this season, beating UAB and Georgia.
SEC (Bridgestone Arena - Nashville)
This is becoming the home for the SEC, and an annual weekend for Kentucky fans to gather in Nashville. Vanderbilt does get a boost for the players being at home and in routine, plus a bit of crowd, but the Commodores have not played in this arena this season.
What is the impact of the Kentucky fans on this event? You can find a good read on that front here, which notes that despite the quality of basketball in the conference not being all that special, the SEC has the highest ticket prices of any league.
AAC (XL Center – Hartford)
Connecticut is the host school and plays here often, which negates the edge just a bit because it also means some of the conference opponents will have already been in the arena – earlier games vs. Houston, East Carolina, Memphis and SMU were played on this court. Note that while Cincinnati did get a win against the Huskies on Sunday, that was over at Gampel Pavilion.
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That should give you a decent overview; I will also add details over the next couple of days should their be some surprises in store, like some teams having a particularly good following behind them.
About Last Night, NBA…
For a board that only brought three games the grading created some challenges, so let’s share a few.
First there was the microscope being brought out for the Lakers, who had played one of the worst games of the entire season in getting dumped 122-73 at Dallas back in January. Was there some pride that would lead to a better effort in the rematch? Don’t let the final score fool you. The Lakers trailed by as many as 31 points, were down 29 to begin the fourth quarter, and were still down by 21 with 2:00 remaining. If anything the very last game sequence was even a bit troubling, in terms of a team respecting the sport – Ben Bentil of Dallas missed a long 3-pointer at the end of the shot clock with 0:06 left, which should have been a rebound and dribble out for the Lakers. Instead Julius Randle got the rebound, passed to Brandon Ingram, and Ingram dished to David Nwaba for a dunk just before the buzzer. It was a rather classless display that gives some evidence of where the mindset of this team is.
And then there was the basketball circus that was Washington/Phoenix, a game that requires going beyond the quick glance because of how fatigue might play a factor for the Wizards tonight, the awkwardness of a back-to-back with the altitude of Denver for the closing game. Because there were so many fouls called, the teams combining for 86 FT attempts, you need to grade the minutes of the Washington players a little more harshly – the game played out to 113.9 possessions, and for comparison the fastest team in the NBA is only at 103.6 this season. The minutes of the Wizards don’t look too bad, outside of John Wall’s 37:19, but because of that pace a magnifier should be added.
And of course no recap of that game would be complete without a foray into the silliness that +/- can provide over a small sample. It was a bizarre game flow that included many runs, Washington leading by as many as 22 points and Phoenix by as many as 11, so let’s introduce a Hall of Fame for +/- that came out of it:
Minutes +/-
Ian Mahimni 25:44 +38
Mahimni played well, with 15 points, nine rebounds and an eye-popping seven steals (for perspective, in his previous six games since the All Star break he only had seven steals across 96:16 of court time), but for the Wizards to have out-scored the Suns by 38 points when he was on the court is an all-timer.
In the Sights, Wednesday afternoon…
I’ll use some components laid out here over the last couple of days to find an opportunity to play into one of the strongest current trends of conference tournament action, Mike Kyzyzewski’s 1-9 ATS slide across the last five ACC affairs, to put #525 Clemson (2:30 Eastern) in pocket. I get a full play at +7, which we may not see, but there is plenty of +6.5 out there in the morning trading and the Tigers working at +6 or better, so about two-thirds of a unit unless the +7 shows.
The ACC tourney began taking on lesser importance to Coach K as he got into the “one-and-done” era in his recruiting – it has annually meant a lack of depth as he rebuilds the roster, and this year’s Blue Devils have one of the weakest benches of his tenure. As such I don’t perceive going out to win this tourney being a major motivational factor, especially since it means running into Louisville and North Carolina before even getting to the finals.
Yet much of this is also about the flip side. I believe the Tigers have the advantage in the setting by having played yesterday to get acclimated to the Barclay’s Center, with fatigue not an issue off of an easy ride vs. N.C. State. There is also a key here that is subtle – you might not think of a team that has gone 4-5 over their last nine games as being on a “run”, but that is what I have seen. Clemson hit a rock bottom in a shocking 109-61 loss at Florida State in early February, and while 4-5 since then does not look like a turnaround, focus on the losses – 82-81 vs. Syracuse, 64-62 at Duke, 71-65 at Miami, 71-70 at Virginia Tech, then 76-74 in the rematch vs. FSU. There wasn’t a bad effort to be found.
In particular note the confidence level the Tigers can bring to this matchup. Jaron Blossongame, Avry Holmes and Donte Grantham were all in the starting lineup when they beat the Blue Devils at home last season, and in taking them to the final possession in Durham a month ago they won the floor game, coming up with five more rebounds and having four fewer turnovers, but finished a basket short on the scoreboard because they were out-shot from long range, 11-26 beyond the arc for Duke to just 2-9. It means that they take the court knowing that they can win today, providing the kind of energy that should have them in the hunt to the final possession again.
And for your listening pleasure...
Brad Powers and I kick around the keys behind beating the conference tournaments in this week's NCAA Podcast -
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