Point Blank – January 23, 2017
Monday plot twists across the NBA grind…The Clippers set sail on a long strange trip (so why not bring in The Dead for some soundtrack)…But speaking of trips, what is the proper way to track the Thunder…It just may be time to believe in the Nets offense (the key may be that they believe)…
The focus now turns away from football to the sounds of the bouncing ball across the hardwoods, and also shots clanging off the rim. I will do the usual NFL review on Tuesday, and there are now two weeks to talk about Falcons/Patriots, with all of the various sub-lots involved. Most of the folks behind the counter I have talked to are pretty confident that New England -3 will be dry paint for a while, so it isn’t as though one needs to be in a hurry to get something locked in to a volatile marketplace. This game may be more about scraping pennies than finding loose half-points available.
The NBA will come front-and-center today because there are several situations on the Monday board that bring long-term talking points into play. As noted here so often, the regular season in this league is a long, arduous, and sometimes flat-out silly grind, and learning to sort through the diverse elements that are in play is ever so important for the serious handicapper. So with a lot of ground to cover today the jukebox will be plugged in, as speculated across the weekend thread, not only some traveling music in general to play to the theme, but in particular to the rather difficult cycle Doc Rivers and the Clippers have ahead - it may indeed become a “West L.A. Fadeaway". The Dead, from 1989 -
Item: Can the Clippers keep wind in their sails
This topic was brought into play near the end of the Friday edition, and also produced what turned out to be a layup with Denver on Saturday night, one of those rare NBA games in which there wasn’t any back and forth flow – the Nuggets won every quarter, never trailing and leading by as many as 35 points. Of course noted in the long weekend thread was the notion of it not necessarily being a good result for the pocket; it may be possible that the margin could lead to a net negative, the prospect of staying in play against LAC on this trip diminished (-6 is a go with the Hawks tonight, but I don’t know if we'll see it).
Here is the gist – for as good as Chris Paul is, which should seem to be a rather obvious notion, the markets have not even come close to making the proper adjustment for his absence. Paul may not set off the fireworks of the likes of Curry/Westbroook/Harden, but in terms of basketball fundamentals, and especially defense, he belongs in that elite group. How badly have the market adjustments missed the mark in the games he has missed?
SU ATS ATS Margin
0-8 1-7 -72
The Clippers have under-performed by a full 9.0 per game vs. the expectations. Now it is the timing that adds an added vulnerability, the NBA throwing a rather absurd layout at them at a time in which they hardly need added issues.
After playing at Denver on Saturday, it will now be a back-to-back of Atlanta this evening, and then at Philadelphia tomorrow. But after only two games in the Eastern time zone they head west again, at least getting a few days off before playing at Golden State on Saturday. Then they are at Phoenix, before a home rematch vs. the Warriors, but that is followed by another trip to the east coast for four games. I can’t recall the last time that a west coast team crossed the nation twice in such a short span.
Now comes the juggling act for Doc Rivers. Blake Griffin has been practicing and is with the team on this trip, but does he see action, or does Rivers use the break before facing Golden State to better get him into the rotation? It isn’t just a matter of Griffin’s health and timing, but the fact that he is not accustomed to playing without Paul, and after the others played at the Denver altitude on Saturday, Sunday was used to give them a break, rather than focus on getting Griffin in sync with the new rotation. The latest word is that he won’t play tonight, but I don’t expect to see him until they face the Warriors.
Needing a break perhaps more than anyone is Jamal Crawford, which becomes another part of the Rivers juggling act. Before Paul was injured Crawford was already in a shooting slump, one that has now extended to 11-58 over the last six games, including 0-15 from 3-point range. But in the midst of this slump he is now needed for extra floor minutes, which may tax the issues for someone than turns 37 in March, instead of bringing a better opportunity to break out. His own take lays out the psychological dimension - “You’re your own best defender. That’s kind of what’s going on now. When you’re thinking about them, you’ve already missed them.”
Charting Crawford's minutes, and shots, is a prime factor going forward in the long cycle before Paul returns.
Item: On properly tracking the Oklahoma City “road trip"
The Clippers will be awkward to track for the obvious reasons in the days ahead, but there is a different challenge with the Thunder. They are locked into another of the NBA’s bizarre scheduling cycles, the base chart showing that tonight’s game at Utah is #17 of what will be 22 straight court changes, and also the 5th straight game on the road. Or is it?
The difficult grind, plus the loss of Steven Adams, led to a couple of “In the Sights…” tickets against OKC last week, and the Thunder limped home after losing to the Clippers and Warriors by a combined 43 points. But hence the tracking issue – they did indeed limp “home”. Because they had four days off between the loss at Golden State, and tonight’s game in Salt Lake City, they were back sleeping in their own beds, and on their own practice court for a few days. Hence the challenge in doing the proper tracking.
How much does having a couple of days back in Oklahoma City alter both the physical flow of the team, and the mindset? Is this really Game #5 of the current road trip, or Game #1 of a two-game stretch that concludes in New Orleans on Wednesday? It may not sound like a big deal but it is something that the savvy handicapper needs to come at from a coupe of directions. First is in the power rating for the individual game, and I do have the Jazz a bit lower tonight than had the Thunder stayed on the road, and played them on Friday or Saturday. Second has to deal with the trends trackers that are out there, because almost all of them are only geared towards “Who-When-Where” components, and will not be able to acknowledge that this is not really an extended road trip, the OKC players waking up in their home city on Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Clouding the issue in terms of tonight is whether or not Steven Adams will pass the concussion protocol. He took part in some light drills at practice on Sunday and did make the trip, but there will not be a determination on this status until later in the day. Do not neglect what he means in the OKC rotation – the Thunder were a -21 on the boards in those last two losses to the Clippers and Warriors.
Item: Is there something to see with the Nets offense?
Among the challenges across the long NBA grind is finding any signs of a basketball integrity with the truly bad teams, notions that they are still working and trying to compete, which can bring sleeper value in a marketplace that will often fail to pay attention. It is easy to understand anyone wanting to ignore the Nets because they have been utterly terrible, that 9-34 record an accurate reflection of their talent level. But in terms of going forward note that the markets have done a good job of evaluating their terribleness, a 20-21-2 ATS tally. In other words, the lines aren’t all that bad on Brooklyn, so one can look in that direction if there is reason to.
The question now is whether there might be some reason. The Nets aren’t good at anything, but one of the prime focus points HC Kenny Atkinson has been trying to get into play is ball movement. That is not easy with a roster that not only lacks talent, but also lacks experience playing together. Yet might some of that be starting to come around?
There have been some subtle signs all along – despite rating #26 in Offensive Efficiency, the Nets are #10 in the league in assists. Now they are off of a stretch of 103 assists in four games, including a season-high of 30 on Saturday at Charlotte (they lost 112-105 as +12). Are they getting it? There is an insightful piece from Brian Lewis at the New York Post that delves into it, and I will bring a couple of key quotes forward.
From Atkinson - “Our offensive karma right now, our spirit is good. Guys are really buying into the ball movement and sharing it,’’ Atkinson said. “I’ll give our young guys credit; they’re coming in and following the lead of the older guys. Give Brook [Lopez] credit: They start doubling him in the post, he throws it out. We’re making that good-to-very-good pass. I’m happy with that.”
From rookie guard Isaiah Whitehead - “I think we’re finally starting to get that the extra pass is the best option on offense. When we’re swinging the ball, swinging the ball, when it goes from side-to-side [and] then you make the extra pass, most likely someone is going to be wide open. I think we’re getting that picture and we’re just sharing the ball.”
And from veteran guard Randy Foye - “It’s just been a fun brand of basketball. It’s something that he (Atkinson) talked about from the beginning, and it’s just been cool — you saw glimpses, but now we’re really starting to see it. I said to Isaiah seeing is believing, and when you see it — and you saw what happens when we share the ball — then you start believing.
“If I give up the ball, then next time when it comes back to me or if it’s a good shot somebody is going to pass it up to me for a great shot. That’s why I say seeing is believing. I always try to be the catalyst for that. If you give somebody a good shot, somebody’s going to find you and they aren’t going to think twice about giving you the ball for a great shot.”
Yes, some of this can be filed as “Coach-speak” or “Player-speak”, but part of the key is that you rarely read these words from a 9-34 bunch. After getting a couple of days off in succession last week they went out and played their best game of the season in winning 143-114 at New Orleans, and the following night they had the lead at Charlotte with 6:00 remaining in the game. What particularly matters about those nights? If we chart January games only, the Pelicans are #6 and the Hornets #10 in defensive efficiency. So I am going to do something with this…
In the Sights, Monday NBA…
Let’s use the info from that last section to build out the edges for #506 Brooklyn Team Total Over (7:35 Eastern), with 103 available in the Monday morning trading. The Nets are playing aggressively, with only Golden State getting up and down the court at a faster pace in January games, and are also having some success with it, the kind of success that should lead to a high level of energy, and perhaps even a little confidence, tonight. The Spurs won’t bring anywhere near that focus level, having won that grudge match at Cleveland on Saturday and with a bigger challenge at Toronto tomorrow than the one they face tonight causing some distraction..
One of the keys in using some of the Nets quotes above is that in Whitehead and Foye the depth of the back-court shows – they are not starting these days, but are playing as many minutes as the starters, and that means the ability to stay on the accelerator for the full 48 minutes. I believe we will see plenty of that on the offensive end, but my focus will only be on the Nets scoring, and not making stops, because an awful defense will remain awful (#28 for the full season).
The San Antonio defense has not been up to the usual standards of late – the Spurs came into January at #2, but this month reside at #8. It is a thin rotation without Pau Gasol and Tony Parker (possibly no Manu Ginobli this evening), and having to start David Lee at center is an open invitation for opposing teams to attack the basket. SA brings the polish to win the scoreboard against the kind of opponent that the Popovich offense can expose, but the Spurs may be on their heels at times defensively.
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