Point Blank – January 5, 2017
Defense wins championships? Not in NFL 2016…But there is plenty of defense when Russell Westbrook and James Harden match up (it just doesn’t come from them)…
Time to get serious about the NFL playoffs now, focusing in on the Saturday games today and then more on the Sunday games tomorrow, but first an overview to set the stage for all of them. You are going to hear a lot of the old standards when the NFL preview shows hit the air this week – “It’s playoff time and that means defense, because defense wins championships”, and so on. But the 2016 season was an entirely different ballgame.
The sport did not change. The average team in 2016 scored 22.8 points per game, on 63.9 offensive snaps and 350.4 yards. The previous season it was 22.8 points, 64.4 plays and 352.7 yards. But the paths to victory sure as hell did. Do you like to think about the superior teams being the ones that could make the big defensive plays, and consistently preventing opposing offenses from enforcing their will? If you do, 2016 was not for you.
Let’s have some fun with this, and take a look at the playoff defenses from several key categories, starting with the Football Outsiders adjusted ratings, which I believe are as good as anything out there because of their attention to detail -
Football Outsiders
2. NYG 15. Dallas
7. Pittsburgh 20. Miami
8. Houston 21. Oakland
9. Seattle 22. Atlanta
11. New England 23. Green Bay
14. Kansas City 32. Detroit
Five of the top six defenses didn’t even make the playoffs, while none of the four teams that earned first round byes could even finish in the top 10.
There is some advanced stuff at FO, but everything starts with a base. The simplest base in the NFL is Yards Per Play, because over the course of 1,023 plays, the league average, there is a chance to make some proper comparisons. In this case it shows that the fine tuning of the FO folks was actually making the playoff teams look a bit better (which some of them genuinely were in various meaningful sub-categories).
Yards Per Play
4. Seattle 18. Dallas
5. Houston 19. Atlanta
7. NYG 21. Miami
10. New England 28. Green Bay
16. Pittsburgh 29. Detroit
17. Kansas City 32. Oakland
Again it leaves an uninspiring list that we will be having to handicap going forward. But perhaps because it is the modern NFL we are looking in the wrong place – it has to be the pass rush, right? With more passes being thrown than ever before, it has to be the teams rushing the passer best that make it to the playoffs.
Sack%
2. Seattle 22. Miami
9. Green Bay 23. NYG
10. Pittsburgh 26. Atlanta
17. Houston 30. Kansas City
18. New England 31. Detroit
19. Dallas 32. Oakland
Only one of the top eight in sack percentage made it to the post-season, while the three teams that were weakest in the category are still alive.
If we use these numbers to tell us that there are only three defenses among the playoff teams that can be considered to be legitimately good (the Steelers just outside of that parameter) – Seahawks/Giants/Texans – that is at least a fair assessment. But of the two that play Saturday, both have perception issues.
Item: Going back to Houston, Houston, Houston, to talk defense
I am not going to play the old Dean Martin tune because I have done it before, and am trying to avoid redundancy when possible (even if it does have one of the great lines of all time – “Saw a dollar yesterday, but the wind blew it away”). The Texans defense has been a major theme a few times here in recent weeks, and now that you will read and hear over and over again this week that they finished #1 in the NFL, you need to be able to filter through that.
For a good refresher on the details you can go here – The Texans defense may believe in Santa Claus. There is something important to the story – the very fact that they believe they just earned that #1 tag does matter, because it makes them far more confident, and brings more energy and concentration to the practice field. But how could they get that lofty rating, and still only earn a #8 from FO, which is close to where my charts put them? Easy – they weren’t on the field all that much.
As noted above, the average defense was on the field for 1,023 plays, but for Houston it was only 950. That rated them dead last across the NFL, and meant that they were on the field for the equivalent of 73 plays below league average, or more than one full game. That makes it far easier to finish with the fewest yards allowed, doesn’t it?
With the potential for +4 getting out there I might end up with some form of Oakland in pocket, albeit only a small flutter because of the risks involved with Conner Cook, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history to make his first career start in a playoff game. It will be difficult to get him up to speed with just a week’s worth of reps, because #3 QBs get almost no practice action in the NFL, outside of running the scout team plays, and that is with fellow reserves, not the other offensive starters.
But Houston does not bring much to the table to be laying more than a field goal – only Ryan Fitzpatrick finished with a worst passer rating among starting QBs than Brock Osweiler, and even with Lamar Miller back the Texans are unlikely to make the plays to open any distance – every one of their wins came in single digits. Here is the key – if the full game line climbs high enough it may open a fair +3 for the first half, and that would be the path. I do not want Cook playing from behind on the road in the second half, but in a game that could open with each HC being ultra conservative (Jack Del Rio and Bill O’Brien would both likely be happy to get into the second quarter 0-0 given their QBs), taking a full field goal for the opening half may work, though still only for a small amount.
I do believe there is a decent bet to be made in Saturday’s second game…
Item: The DCs are the ones that could be sleepless in Seattle
I will be in play with #104 Seattle/Detroit Over (8:15 Eastern), the weather forecast calling for a kickoff temperature in the mid-30’s, with a mild wind that is not likely to impact play.
Some of the tables above tell the tale of the Detroit defense, a limited group that has occasionally made a big play when it has been needed, but has generally been ineffective across the board. And in key step-up games against the Cowboys and Packers to close out the campaign the Lions were shredded for 73 points and 823 yards, not coming up with a single takeaway, and only managing two sacks in 62 drop-backs. It is difficult to envision them having much success against Russell Wilson, his mobility making it difficult for them to get him on the ground, and when opposing QBs have remained on their feet there have been plenty of openings – Detroit has allowed 72.7 percent completions, dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. League average was 63.0, and no other team was lower than Dallas at 67.1 (yes, to continue today’s theme the two defenses that allowed the highest completion percentages both made the playoffs).
But the Lions can also make some plays here. While the Seattle defensive numbers were still strong this season, even if below the expectations coming in, there is the simple fact that replacing Earl Thomas is not easy. In the four games without him the Seahawks allowed a 106.9 passer rating to opposing QBs, without getting a single interception. Considering that half of those games were against Colin Kaepernick and Jerod Goff, that is troubling.
Detroit brings a tough matchup for this group. One of the key elements in making the Seattle defense so strong through the years is the ability of Richard Sherman to take away the opponent’s #1 receiver, and hence throw an offense out of sync. That does not bring as much advantage vs. Detroit as other teams – Sherman likely matches up with Golden Tate, but Anquan Bolden caught 67 passes and Marvin Jones 55, so Matthew Stafford has other prime WRs to work with, and of course the 61 catches from TE Eric Ebron put more pressure on the safety position, and the absence of Thomas. The Lions offense will face the usual pressures of a strong pass rush, enhanced by this crowd at night, but the door is open for Stafford to make some plays.
This one adds up as more of a free-flowing affair than the way it is being priced, which brings value at the 43s that are out there. Now time to head to the NBA, where there is a high-profile matchup that may again run against the anticipated flow…
Item: And speaking of defense, about that Westbrook/Harden showdown…
There shouldn’t be many matchups more fun to watch that Russell Westbrook vs. James Harden, two prime MVP candidates that have been putting up huge numbers. They are both aggressive and love to attack with the ball, all the while not being nearly as adept at guarding people at the other end. So when they go head-to-head there should be explosions, right? There haven’t been, and tonight there may not be one more time.
The first two meetings between these teams were dead Unders, both games played at Oklahoma City –
Nov 16 OKC (-2.5 and 218) 105-103
Dec 9 HOU (+1.5 and 224) 102-99
Those games fell a collective 33 points below the Total, and you did not have to look much further than that Westbrook/Harden duel to see why –
FGs TOs
HARDEN 10-39 14
WESTBROOK 17-45 14
How in the hell does that happen? It is actually rather simple – they don’t guard each other, and there is a two-pronged aspect to the defenses winning the first two battles. First is the fact that both Westbrook and Harden are guarded by two of the best defenders at their positions in the NBA – Patrick Beverley for the Rockets and Andre Roberson for the Thunder. Those two in particular get up for these games, not just the challenge of taking on one of the league’s best, but also knowing that by playing well they are helping their own teammate in that season-long MVP race. The flip side is that neither Beverley nor Roberson are an offensive threat, which means that the sub-par, and sometimes even matador, defense of Westbrook/Harden does not get exposed.
Despite missing time recently with an injured right wrist Beverley is expected to play tonight (from Mike D’Antoni, who got emphatic at the end - "I think he'll be ready. If everything goes well, he should be ready. He's going to play. He's going to play. Yeah, he's going to play."), and in truth what is happening at Houston goes beyond the individual matchup with the Thunder – despite the expectations of being the NBA’s version of the Harlem Globetrotters entering the season, the Rockets are becoming a factor on the defensive end. Since the start of December the Houston defense rates #4 across the NBA, and might trend even better when Clint Capela returns.
Now to set tonight’s perspective – despite the first two games between these teams playing under by 33 points, and the Rockets showing major improvements on the defensive end, the Total is sitting at 225, higher than either of those earlier encounters. That helps to set up the value for #707 OKC Team Total Under (8:05 Eastern), with 107.5 out there this morning and value holding at 106 or better, because there is also one other element that is starting to be of major interest in the tracking – might Westbrook be wearing down?
Westbrook has been carrying a remarkable load this season, his court-time only up a trickle from LY, but the effort required much more (5.9 more FG attempts per game, 3.5 more FT attempts, 2.6 more rebounds). But he appeared gassed at the end of last night’s loss at Charlotte, when the Thunder were badly out-played in the fourth quarter, and finished just 11-31 from the field. That takes his last three road games to a rather startling 25-79, with 15 turnovers vs. only 14 assists.
Let’s add context – instead of getting some down-time around the holidays it has been a brutal grind for OKC, which played on Christmas day and New Year’s eve. This will be the 11th straight game since the Thunder last had consecutive days off, and the ninth straight with a court change. Hence fatigue can be a major issue, especially running into a Houston team that was off both Tuesday and Wednesday to dial up a defensive game plan.
For those that don’t have access to Team Totals there is still reasonable value for a full game Under 225 or better, but there is the risk of the game breaking open late, which has happened a few times recently in a strong Houston run – the Rockets have put up 131 (Suns), 140 (short-handed Clippers) and 129 (Knicks) in some recent home blowouts.
And for your listening pleasure...
This week's Podcast is up, one stop-shopping covering Clemson/Alabama, and touching on all four playoff games -
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