Point Blank – December 31, 2016
An NFL Week #17 stream of consciousness…
One of the running themes established here earlier in the week is just how different the final Sunday is across the NFL handicapping front, with power ratings, statistics and matchups taking a back seat to notions of first of all who will play, and then who will play harder and better. As such there has been a lot of reading between the lines going on as various teams issue vague notions about their intentions, some of it being genuine, and some more camouflage to make it difficult for the opposition to game plan.
Consider this to be more of an opener to the thread rather than a destination take – there are many storylines still unfolding out there, so there is much more back-and-forth to come. Here are some of the issues on the radar screen, in schedule order, as we approach 24 hours to the final kickoffs –
Houston/Tennessee - This game doesn’t mean anything to the Texans in the standings, but there is a lot of work to be done. Tom Savage is not ready to lead the team to a playoff win yet, so not only will he play, but Bill O’Brien may game plan as though this is a playoff game, in order to get Savage and the first-team offense to the highest performance level possible. Lamar Miller and Jadeveon Clowney will not play, but most of the other key cogs will, and I do believe that for Houston to maintain that silly, but meaningful to them, #1 defensive rating for fewest yards allowed is a part of their consciousness, a notion I will do something with on game day
Buffalo/NY Jets – Once upon a time that had the feel of a “Coaches Playoff Game”, perhaps the winner of Rex Ryan/Todd Bowles to keep his job. Instead it is one of the flattest tires of all, the Bills coming in with Anthony Lynn not really a candidate for the HC job, and without Tyrod Taylor at QB, although that does give EJ Manuel a chance to showcase himself to get a tryout with someone else next season. But while that could open the door for the Jets at the price point if they come to play, among the things we must deal with this week comes something like this – The Jets locker room is a telling ghost town.
NY Giants/Washington – We know the Redskins need to win to have a shot at the playoffs and will go all out. But what about the Giants? If they decide to show something this line is high, but how much they bring remains a mystery. Let me recap some quotes that have appeared in earlier discussion threads this week.
First from Ben McAdoo – “We’re going to play our players and go win the ball game. That’s what we do for a living. We only have 53 players on our roster. It’s tough to go through a game if you rest your starters. We think we have 53 starters. Everyone plays a role on the team and you go in, you have an opportunity to play this week, we have to win the game this week.”
As to whether Eli Manning would play, and how much -“Eli’s going to play the game, yes,” McAdoo said. But what about the whole game? “Eli’s going to play the ball game, yes,” the coach responded.
And then there was this from Landon Collins - “We are putting the pedal to the metal. We are playing it like a playoff game, treating it like a playoff game and coming out and firing on all cylinders. That is our mindset and we are trying to get the W.”
I believe the Giants will at least go hard in the first half, and putting a little +4 or better in the pocket for that part of the game brings reasonable value.
Dallas/Philadelphia – I began the week on Tuesday with a detailed quote from Jerry Jones about why Dak Prescott would play this week, and Tony Romo wouldn’t. That did not hold up long, and it appears that Prescott, Romo and Mark Sanchez will all see action on Sunday. How much? The Cowboys themselves may not know that yet, but one key item to consider is that when Romo plays, it is likely that the first team offense stays out there for that time, the combination of needing to get him into rhythm with them against an opposing defense, and also the better OL to protect him from getting hit, although Tyson Smith will not play. A significant issue is in the defensive front, where Tyrone Crawford, DeMarcus Lawrence, Terrell McClain and Cedric Thornton have already been declared inactive, on top of LB Justin Durant and CB Morris Claiborne also missing. If they decide to hold Sean Lee out, which may happen, this becomes an extremely patched-up unit. I believe there is a way of taking advantage of that on the Fantasy front, which I will get to in a moment.
Cleveland/Pittsburgh - As noted earlier in the week, Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Maurkice Pouncey will not play for the Steelers, with more to come, and added to that list have been Ladarius Green, Stephon Tuitt and Robert Golden. The key cogs at LB have been practicing, but it would be a surprise if James Harrison or Lawrence Timmons played.
New England/Miami – The Patriots will bring a high game integrity, needing a win to wrap up the home field throughout the playoffs, but the Dolphins can also improve their positioning with a win, and like Houston need to get more time for their QB if indeed it is to be Matt Moore in the playoffs. A problem this week is taking on Tom Brady with a patched-up secondary, that group having already been without Reshad Jones for much of the season, but now losing Isa Abdul-Quaddes and Byron Maxwell. With Jelani Jenkins missing again at LB there are some game plan limitations on DC Vance Joseph, whose defense was riddled for 589 yards at Buffalo last week.
Kansas City/San Diego - Melvin Gordon’s season is over, a storyline I have followed closely because of just how limited the Chargers RB corps has been down the stretch without him. Gordon really wanted to play, and may indeed be healthy enough, so let’s file his own words on this front from earlier in the week before we get to one of the keys - “I’m gonna be fine. Because I feel like I can go out there and contribute. If I felt like I would go out there and I was gonna get hurt, then I wouldn’t go out there. I know my body better than anybody around here. So. I know if I can’t go. It’s a difference between being injured and hurt. So, in my mind, if I can go out there and I can help make plays, I’m gonna play.”
So why won’t he play? Naturally part of that is not wanting to risk a major talent, but perhaps even more is the fact in the OL King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin have not practiced all week, and Matt Slauson was only a limited participant in the final practice. Watching the inactives come across on Sunday will be significant – if Dunlap/Franklin miss, or perhaps all three, there just won’t be much that Mike McCoy and Phillip Rivers can draw up.
Oakland/Denver – Let me put something into focus that was a discussion point in the Tuesday edition, and in the follow-up threads – the drop from Derek Carr to Matt McGloin may not be as major as many are making it out to be. Part of that is the outstanding talent the Raiders have across the other offensive positions, which makes for an easier assimilation, and here is something from QB coach Tom Downing that made the files, and is worth a read –
“There aren’t any throws that he can’t make that Derek can make. We feel comfortable with our full catalog in the pass game. He’s a consummate pro, so he’s been preparing as though he’s the starter all along. One of the things that’s most impressive about Matt is he studies the game plan and puts himself in all those game situations as though he were starting from Week 1. So there’s not a lot of change in his preparation other than the amount of reps he’s getting.”
NFL Fantasy QB – Carson Wentz
I believe there is some solid value to head far down the board on Sunday, Wentz sitting at #18 on both the DraftKings and FanDuel charts, despite going up against what will be a short-handed and disinterested Dallas defense. The weather in Philadelphia will be about as good as could be hoped for at this time of year, the temperature in the mid-40’s with only a mild wind, and instead of this being the final game of the 2016 season, it takes on the shape of being the first Eagles contest for 2017, an opportunity the playbook to be opened up, and to build some positive momentum on offense.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
I will have some action on the Team Totals fronts that will be posted on Sunday morning, but for now we can take advantage of the line dropping from 44 to 42.5 to get #329 Seattle/San Francisco Over (4:25 Eastern) into play, a game in which both offenses will bring a high level of intensity, but each defense has issues beyond the market perceptions.
The Seattle problems without Earl Thomas have been real – Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer each had their way with that pass defense, with that walkover vs. Jared Goff and the inept Rams not meaning all that much. That opens the door for a San Francisco offense that isn’t much, but will at least let all elements of Chip Kelly’s playbook hang out, Kelly getting a last copportunity to see whether Colin Kaepernick is worth bringing back, and also trying to build some positive momentum into next season.
Meanwhile what looks like improvement down the stretch for the San Francisco defense is merely the fog of that unit having faced Matt Barkley in bad weather, and then Bryce Petty and Goff, across a span of four games. In the only challenge over the past month Matt Ryan and the Falcons when through them like it was flag football, and that group will not put up much resistance against Russell Wilson and a Seahawks offense that will bring a sense of purpose to the proceedings.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
Here is one that many of you are likely expecting, but with game day bringing a more than fair price to the marketplace it will be #302 Tennessee Team Total Under (1:00) Eastern, with 21 available as a win number across the board, including Pinnacle sitting on 22.5.
There are two key aspects to this one, one which was written about extensively last week – while the Houston defense has only been a little above average on my charts, and a matching #14 from Football Outsiders, the Texans have allowed fewer yards than any team, and hence get the #1 designation from the NFL. That is something that the players and coaches have bought into, some of that now indeed leading to better performances, through more energy and attention to detail on the practice field. When the coaches see that energy it becomes something I believe they will want to reward, and it is something they have talked about openly, like this from DC Romeo Crennell – “It would mean the players have picked up the system, give good effort, learn the game plan and execute the game plan. If we can finish #1 for the first time, that would be pretty special.”
That defense now gets to face a Tennessee offense that loses a couple of playbook chapters without Marcus Mariota, Matt Cassell not bringing any run threat at all, and Cassell may not get as many opportunities as usual because of the game place, which is a key Part II to this equation. The Texans snapped the ball at a three toed sloth-like 32.7 SPS in the first start by Tom Savage last week, and for perspective that is nearly three full seconds slower than the pace any team has played at this season. I expect that to be the Houston tempo on offense again, in a game in which Bill O’Brien would like for his team to play well, but also to avoid injuries, something that reducing snap counts can do. And I do believe they will use that pace as a way to protect that #1 defensive rating as the game flow unfolds.
In the Sights, Sunday NCAA Hoops…
I’ll go shorter on details on a busy morning in the trading arena, but there is a classic “horse stepping up in class” setting in the Big 10 today that does not work for Minnesota, which will put #730 Purdue (4:30 Eastern) into pocket, this one good to -13 (there is some -12 out there right now).
The Golden Gophers are indeed improved after last season’s injury/suspension riddled disaster, but this is still a team filled with holes, and one that has not been developed well for this setting – there has only been one true road game, a loss at Florida State, and it was easy to see the market error in making them -6 over Michigan State on Wednesday, a game they lost outright in OT. Now they step in against the real deal, a Purdue team that has Final Four potential. The Boilermakers are one of the toughest deals in the nation to match up against, the combination of the NBA bodies of Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas around the basket; the ability of others to knock down shots when defenses sag against that duo (#8 in the nation in 3-point percentage); terrific ball movement (20.6 assists per game); and suffocating defense (allowing 39.3% shooting).
Only the Big 10 elite will have a chance to compete at Mackey Arena this season, with Iowa falling down by 24 at halftime here on Wednesday and never getting in the hunt. Minnesota is much closer to Iowa than to the league’s elite, and the Golden Gophers will find 40 minutes a long time given their lack of road prep.
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