Point Blank – December 23-26, 2016
The Texans defense may believe in Santa Claus (though that is not necessarily a bad thing)…The Lakers may have no magic left for their trip to Orlando…
Time to get set up for an unusual NFL weekend, the bulk of the action coming on Saturday because of the Christmas weekend lay-out. There are a multitude of added factors in play, and in the course of tracking one game high on the radar screen some notions discovered along the way are worth bringing front and center today. There is also an open shot on the Friday NBA hardwoods worth taking, so let’s get to work…
Item: The Houston defense may believe in Santa Claus (and sometimes beliefs do matter)
In the course of sorting through Bengals/Texans this week, a game I have had a major focus on because of some issues you can read about in the Wednesday lead there has been some enlightening reading on both sides of the equation. The Houston defense has not been much more than average without J.J. Watt, rating #13 on the Football Outsiders base charts, and #18 on the more sophisticated adjusted ratings. But there is a catch to that.
One of the silliest things to continue to happen in this day and age is for the yards gained and allowed to lead to the “official” designations. That measurement actually places the Texans #1 in the NFL in yards per game allowed, which just about anyone with football sophistication would realize is a flawed designation. But the Houston players showed an interesting reaction when they moved up to that top spot this week, and while some of us might not believe the rating means anything, they do. Hence the question, how much does that added level of confidence or energy translate to this late in the season?
Let’s go inside the heads of a few of the Texans, and since I was reading some Joseph Campbell on the trip eastwards, focus on just how important is that power of belief for professional athletes. The Texans aren’t as good as they think they are, but might that belief lead them to play better than they are?
Let’s start with DE Antonio Smith: "That's definitely huge. Every defense wants to be the No. 1 defense. For us to climb the ranks the way we have, we've put a lot of dedicated work in. It's always a good sign, an affirmation of, 'OK, the work I'm putting in is good for something. We have fun. I don't even think we've reached our peak. We're constantly getting better and wiser on how to work in the frame of our defense."
How about this from A.J. Bouye - "There's that saying that defense wins championships. In our mind, we know what we need to do and we can hold our own. That starts with winning the division, playing good defense. RAC is doing a great job, our DBs coach, all our coaches. We're mixing it up and still playing tight coverage and getting after the quarterback. We have a hard-working group. We compete.”
RAC, of course, is Romeo Crennel the DC, who has been around the block more than a few times. Let’s go to DE Christian Covington for a sign of the motivation the players are getting from their leader on the sidelines - "To have a man like coach Crennel, it always goes back to him. We feel awesome, very proud. We've been doing what's been asked of us. To be where we are right now, you can't ask for anything better than that. RAC is a great coach. He tells us every day to finish, compete, play hard and have fun. We listen to him. As a defensive unit, we do what he says and it's helped us out a lot."
OK, so there is a degree of delusion here because my ratings are not too far off of the Football Outsiders charts – I get the Houston defense at a little above average. But in terms of the last two weeks of the season, what do we have? A team that is going to practice with about as much focus and energy as any in the league, not just the prospect of winning the AFC South, but also of finishing with the artificial to us, but meaningful to them, #1 defensive rating that is within their reach.
That matters. It is in going the extra mile during the week that teams earn more favorable scoreboard outcomes, a little more time in the film room and perhaps a few extra reps on the field often the difference between winning and losing in a close game. That is of particular interest in this game because of how the other side of the equation lays out, which I will get to in a moment. But first…
Friday Fantasy QB – Andrew Luck
I am not going to venture too far down the board this week, with Luck only #4 at DraftKings and #3 at FanDuel, but one of the most intriguing game results of this entire season was how well he and the Colts offense got into a rhythm at Minnesota, a tough place for that to happen, including three TD drives of 88 yards or more. There was a lot of upside to this attack all season, being limited by an OL that will need to be upgraded for 2017, and I will call for that rhythm to carry over against a non-division opponent that may struggle tactically to match up, as the Packers, Jets and Vikings have in similar recent Colts road settings (the ability of the Indy offense to work the TE/RB corps into the passing game throwing a changeup to defenses that have not seen them).
In the Sights, Friday NBA…
The impact of the Christmas weekend cycle on various NFL settings has been a topic of discussion this week, but tonight we can focus on the NBA hardwoods, where a tired, struggling and depth-shy Lakers team has been put into a truly bad setting, and that will bring #704 Orlando (7:05 Eastern) into play, plenty of -5 to be found in the early Friday trading, and this one good up to -6.
The Lakers were thrown a haymaker by the schedule for this setting, an awful cycle of seven road games in 12 days, before the return home to face the Clippers on Christmas night. That was going to make focus for this one difficult under the best of circumstances, but now LAL is also short-handed, with Jose Calderon having missed the trip, Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. unavailable this evening, and Tarik Black considered doubtful. What happens to worn down teams at the end of road trips? The second half of games becomes problematic, and in the two legs of the trip prior to tonight they have fallen by 33 points after halftime to the Hornets and Heat.
Luke Walton is resigned to the current state of affairs - “Obviously we’re trying to come up with those game plans for when this stuff happens. But maybe we’re missing something. You got any suggestions, let us know and we’ll take them into consideration.” For a team that has only beaten the lowly 76ers across the last dozen games, this is hardly the setting for a turnaround, especially with the high profile showdown vs. the Clippers on national television Sunday night.
I do not believe effort will be any problem for the Magic tonight, because that is where they came up short against the Knicks on Thursday beat 52-41 on the boards, something they were quick to acknowledge. Frist from Bismack Biyombo - “I believe we got outworked by their bigs. They brought more energy than we did. We can’t let two days in a row [go by] being outworked.” And Nikola Vucevic - “I thought we didn’t play with enough force. I think they took the game to us. We didn’t respond the right way.”
Orlando is set about as well as any team can be through the holiday weekend cycle – the Magic will be home throughout, and don’t play again until Monday. They can bring a let-it-all-hand-out type of effort here, and with the short-handed Lakers already sitting at #29 in defensive efficiency, ahead of only Portland, that means an opportunity to have the Magic side of the scoreboard flash like Christmas tree lights.
In the Sights, Saturday NFL…
As the week progressed the pieces to fall into place to be involved in the hours before Santa on Christmas Eve, and put #126 Houston (8:25 Eastern) into play, with some +1 to be found now, and the Texans holding value to -1.
Both ends of this one have been discussed at length already this week so let me add a few clinching details – first the notion that for as well as the Houston defense has played recently, including a domination of Jacksonville far beyond what the scoreboard shows last Sunday, the Texans will now get Whitney Mercilus back on the field, and there is a good chance Jonathan Joseph returns as well. That just adds more talent and chemistry to this group, Mercilus having been chosen as a Pro Bowl alternate, and Joseph having made the Pro Bowl twice in the past. A negative may be the absence of Lamar Miller, who missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday, but that has been fully factored into this line, and Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt bring enough from the reserve cast to keep this a go.
It is the flip side of the equation that has read well, and for all of the earlier discussions about being a road team out of contention on this particular day, it was laid out in fine detail by Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer, a piece that would be good to keep in the files for this situation in the future. In addition to already lacking motivation for this setting, having used up a great deal of energy in that grudge match vs. the Steelers last week, the Bengals were thrown the curveball of having to play at night. That means heading straight to the airport afterwards to be home for Christmas morning, their plane likely landing around 4 AM.
Cincinnati will compete like a professional team, which the Bengals have done each week since falling out of contention, but those notions of staying after practice for extra work, which I expect from the Texans, won’t be there. In a close matchup that can make a difference, and it will be the sharpness and added focus of the home team that pulls this one through.
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