Point Blank – December 9, 2016
It may not be Remember the Titans anymore…But we should take a moment to remember Greg Lake…The NBA’s one-and-done era/error is fully upon us now, which is why Utah’s Thursday performance matters…
Yesterday the focus was on trying to get a better understanding of how Kansas City has turned some mediocre stats across the base categories into what is now a 10-3 season, and Raiders/Chiefs brought us a host of conundrums in terms of individual game grading. It is ever so rare for a team to win and cover with a -3 turnover differential, a tribute to KC dominating the yards per play by a 6.0 to 3.3 count, but for the second straight game an integral part of the offense failed badly – Spencer Ware managed just 85 yards on 34 carries in those two wins.
There is plenty of sorting to do through that one, and today it will be another long look at a particular team, questioning whether we can now begin to ignore what has been a dubious past for the Tennessee Titans because of the tools, and opportunity, the present team has. It will be a day of multiple topics across several fronts so we reach to the jukebox for something to ease the read along, this time being a bittersweet tribute to Greg Lake, who passed away at the age of 69 on Tuesday. Palmer was an original member of King Crimson (search out In the Court of the Crimson King and In the Wake of Poseidon for some great stuff that you may not have heard), before forming the iconic Emerson, Lake & Palmer. Today we go to something fitting for the season, I Believe in Father Christmas, from St. Bride’s Church in London in 2011, joined by the great Ian Anderson -
Item: Is it time to first remember, and then forget, the past Titans
Tennessee becomes a good lead topic because there are particular handicapping notions that come into play, some of which will surprise most readers, that lead me to want to make a bet this week. Yet there is also the reality of betting on a team in what now becomes a high pressure game despite that bunch not having a legacy of success. So let’s get to work.
Tennessee is tied for first place in the rather sorry AFC South, this being on the heels of 2-14 and 3-13 campaigns. The reasons for the improvements are easy to see – just look at the roster. An offense that finished #31 on the Football Outsiders charts in 2014, and #32 in 2015, now has a talented QB with some experience under his belt in Marcus Mariota, outstanding depth at RB, and some emerging receivers. That offense is up to #17 on those same FO charts this season.
A key here is that the foundation that Mariota, DeMarco Murray and others have been added to may have been better than those previous records indicated. The Titans came across as having had better talent than their results, but lacked the polish and confidence to get over the hump. So can we be more confident of this bunch at 6-6 because they were already better than the 5-27 of the two previous campaigns? It leads us to a rather intriguing table, in terms of potential, and this is where many will be surprised -
2016 Net Offensive TDs
Cowboys +14
Patriots +14
Titans +11
The goal of the offense when they take possession of the ball is to score a touchdown. The prime goal of the defense is to prevent one. We all know that the Patriots and Cowboys have been awfully good this season, though certainly not because of their defensive prowess. But in terms of the basic pure net of scoring and allowing touchdowns, look at the Tennessee placement, #3 in the NFL. This is a sign of where that base talent is.
Want another manifestation of that? If you average more than a half yard better per pass than you allow, and per rush than you allow, that is pretty good football. How many teams have accomplished that?
NFL 2016: +.5 both Running and Passing
Per Rush Per Pass
Cowboys 4.8 4.2 8.0 6.9
Seahawks 4.1 3.6 7.3 6.5
Titans 4.8 4.1 7.6 6.9
To make it simple, this team does have a world of upside. The defense has a ways to go, and the special teams need upgrading, but there is a strong base to work with. The question becomes whether the football culture has been changed, to the point at which they can now be trusted to produce a positive scoreboard result under pressure, and that leads to Mariota being the difference maker, not just with his physical tools and performance, but in giving the other players something to believe in.
Mariota was the AFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, a 115 Passer Rating in which he threw for 1,124 yards, with 11 TDs vs. only two interceptions. He also ran for 89 yards and a TD. Mariota is now up to three straight games without a turnover, and eight straight of throwing multiple TD passes – the NFL record in that category for a QB in his first two seasons belonging to Dan Marino with 10, back in 1984.
The development of Mariota and that offense matters, because it was best labeled as a work in progress when the season began, a case of not only building around the particular skills of the QB, but also incorporating Murray and Derrick Henry at RB, and fellow newcomers Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe, now #2 and #3 in the team in receptions. They have not played their best football yet, and now get the benefit of a late-season bye to not just physically fresh (a big plus for Murray as a toe injury heals), but to also add playbook layers.
Can we trust this bunch now? I’ll get back to that in a moment, but first time to sort through a few other items.
NFL Fantasy QB – Jameis Winston
The parallels in Winston’s second season to those of Mariota are fascinating to watch both from the standpoint of their individual performances, and also how they have become catalysts for team turnarounds. Winston and the Bucs have the opportunity to move closer to the playoffs at home vs. a New Orleans defense that rates #26 vs. the pass on the Football Outsiders charts, and despite Saints/Buccaneers having the week’s highest Total, he is far enough down the draft boards (#6 at DraftKings and #5 at FanDuel) to fall into the “value” category.
About Last Night, NBA…
Grading the early NBA season has been brutal. There are injuries galore, with much of the league also adopting the Pops policy of it being OK to rest healthy players from the get-go as the schedule grind unfolds, so attaching full weights to games has become far more rare than it once was. And there is the unfortunate aspect of getting fully into the “One and Done” era, which has been a lead topic in the past and will be again soon – the quality of play is subpar, and that leads to a lot of blowout results. How about Wednesday night, when four of the 10 games were determined by 30 points or more? Watching teams pack it in when facing a big deficit has become far too common, which is why Utah’s compeititve loss to Golden State last night stands out.
The Jazz have been without Alec Burks all season Derrick Favors for a while, and took the court on Thursday also minus Gordon Hayward, George Hill and Rodney Hood. It led to a major sweat for folks behind the counter, with early Golden State -6 running all the way to -11.5 at post, and when the Warriors jumped out 29-5 it appeared that the every one of the GS tickets that led to the climb would cash.
This time it didn’t happen – despite those limited pieces Quin Snyder’s Jazz kept competing, turning it into a genuine battle down the stretch before falling 106-99. This was not Steve Kerr emptying his bench to allow that to happen, with Kevin Durant playing 36 minutes, Steph Curry 35:35 and Draymond Green 34:55. Instead this was one NBA team choosing to stay within their structure and play the game out, despite the uphill challenge.
Mark down Snyder’s post-game take as something that matters - “I think it just has to do with guys having pride in the group and responding for one another.” It isn’t just that the one-and-done players around the league lack basketball skills; there is also that notion of simply not having played enough to have developed pride. Who were two of the Utah keys last night? Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson, guys that have been around the block more than a few times.
The NBA power ratings are a major challenge right now, which made it so refreshing to see the way that Utah competed (now if you truly want some fingernails-on-chalkboard stuff, just try to sort through the fourth quarter of Nuggets/Wizards).
In the Sights, NFL…
I am going to trust #106 Tennessee (1:00 Eastern) this week, because I see Denver vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Instead of the Titans being a moribund franchise I will anticipate positive energy coming out of their bye week, and for all of that past legacy there are so many key cogs that simply weren’t a part of it – Mariota had nothing to do with 2014, was a rookie learning his way in 2015, and now the two leading rushers, and two of the three leading pass catches, were not with the team before this season.
Here is where the post-bye freshness matters – a team built on a physical ground game is a good December idea to begin with, but the rare late-season bye makes that part of their arsenal even better. Now they get a chance to face a Bronco defense that may not have their legs, having faced 157 snaps over the last two games, with travel to and from Jacksonville, and now to Nashville, added in. This is a terrific defense, but also one that has been overworked, only the Giants and 49ers having been on the field for more plays, which becomes exacerbated by the particular load of the past two games.
There is a prime reason for that, of course – the Denver offense has been struggling to stay on the field. Regardless of whether it is Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch at QB they need to be able to run first to set things up, and that is not happening – with C.J. Anderson on IR and Kapri Bibbs missing this week the load falls on Devontae Booker again, and over the last five games he has only managed 264 yards on 95 carries, a mere 2.8 yards per attempt.
The Titans don’t have a great long-term home record, but their last two games on this field were dominating wins by 36 points over the Jaguars and Packers. I believe that is the energy and confidence level we will see here, those past failures being relics packed away in a closet somewhere.
In the Sights, Saturday NBA…
There is an opportunity on the NBA board to go back to a concept that has worked well across the years, and also to focus in on some game management aspects by coaches when they face a difficult cycle. The two different directions land on #519 New Orleans Team Total Under (10:35 Eastern), with 95.5 available in he early trading, and value holding to 95.
The first part of this equation is one that I have written about here often – the penchant for Doc Rivers to take advantage of schedule spots like this to manage his way through the season, a profitable Under pattern when the Clippers are laying double figures at home. It certainly helps that he has a team that is #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, with Paul/Jordan/Mbah a Moute all contenders for first team all-NBA defense at their positions, and tonight there should be an extra focus on that end – there have been back-to-back days off since suffering a pair of ugly home losses, Thursday focused on the film room, and Friday the practice court. They will take the Pelicans seriously.
The issue for Alvin Gentry is that he cannot take the Clippers too seriously. Already missing Tyreke Evans the back-court is expected to be without Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore again tonight, which leaves Gentry with the same rotation that could only manage 88 points in a home loss to the 76ers on Thursday. Here is the added problem in terms of this game – New Orleans plays again at Phoenix on Sunday, only 22 hours between tipoff times. So what does a coach do if he is short-handed in the first leg of a back-to-back? Slow the tempo early to reduce possessions and better compete, but then if it does get away rest the key cogs for the game in which there is the much better chance to win. It can lead to the Pelicans struggling early because the LAC defense will be primed, and then struggling late because it will be a patchwork group of reserves seeing a lot of action. I will make the focus Team Total here instead of full game because of the prospect of the outcome getting out of hand, and New Orleans losing defensive focus in the latter stages.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
I am going to take what I will call the “Blake Bortles Gamble” this week, and project that there won’t be another of his Pick Sixes on the way, and work #119 Minnesota Team Total Under (1:00 Eastern) into the portfolio, the key being that Pinnacle and a few other good shops are offering 21.5 in the Sunday trading. Consider this good at 21 or better. If the Vikings don’t get an easy score off of a turnover or special teams, that is a long haul for their offense.
Back on Tuesday I noted the defensive improvement that Jaguars have made down the stretch, and this is a fit in terms of both quality and tactics. Not only have they allowed fewer yards per game than any team over the last five weeks, but they do it with a bend-but-don’t-break approach that can swallow up the dink-and-dunk Minnesota approach. Here is how Jax DC Todd Wash lays it out –
“We’re going to do everything we can to eliminate explosives, because there is a direct correlation between big plays and points. If you look at it throughout the NFL, if there is not an explosion play within a drive the opportunity for an offense to score is limited. For us, we’re going to keep doing what we do. If they are going to nickel and dime us — one of us is going to make a mistake along the way. We’re going to keep the ball in front of us and make them earn everything they can.”
Take away YAC (Yards After Catch), and the Vikings jus don’t bring much – their offense has only scored six TDs in six road games, and note that two of them came when down 21-3 with 0:37 left at Philadelphia and 20-3 with 5:30 remaining at Chicago. This plateau is asking for a lot, and while there is concern about a big play from the special teams or defense being in the equation, there is enough value to work around that.
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