Point Blank – December 7, 2016
It’s getting late early for the Hawks…The end-game gambit is at hand in the Survivor Pool…Cleveland’s cavalier approach on defense leaves a back door open in the Garden…
The focus shifts to the NBA board on Wednesday, where the eye test has a lot of work to do, although there can be the pleasure of merely being a fan when the Warriors and Clippers faced off at the Staples Center late night. But before that it will be time to see whether the Hawks are capable of being fixed.
Item: It is getting late early in Atlanta
The Hawks brought one of the major early-season storylines when they opened 9-2, getting more attention than usual because Dwight Howard was part of the mix. But it didn’t last. Atlanta quickly went from being a positive surprise through the first block of 11 games to the NBA’s worst over the second set of 11, a dismal 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in which Mike Budenholzer’s team fell 153 points below the market expectations. I don’t have a way to look it up, but I would post that -153 over a stretch of 11 games would rival anything in the history of point spreads.
This has been from one of the best coaches in the league, with a team noted for playing consistent fundamental basketball. On that front there have been three losses by 27 points or more in this cycle, after the Hawks did not have a single defeat by that margin last season. So naturally it brings an immediate focus on Howard, who has struggled to assimilate across tours of duty with various teams, the case of particular basketball talents that do not always fit smoothly across a team concept, and also a fragile ego.
This is where I could stop and make it easy – blame the Atlanta demise on Howard because it reads well, but there is more to it, because his replacing Al Horford was not the only major change, it was also Dennis Schroder being elevated to the starting PG spot, replacing Jeff Teague. Might this be a case of the chemistry not working, a group that by flawed design simply may not fit?
The defense looked good on paper with this mix and has been – the Hawks are #2 in the NBA at 100.5 PP100, after finishing #2 behind the Spurs last season. When you put Budenholzer’s playbook, much of which was developed working under Gregg Popovich, with players like Howard and Schroder, the defense could end up being better than the previous edition.
But as for the offense…
The Hawks have lost four full PP100 since last season, beginning the day at #27. What had been a fluid passing game featuring ball movement across the various positions is now a, stagnant mess in which far too many trips end up with shots being forced from one-on-one moves. That was part of the gamble in going from Horford to Howard, so let’s focus in on the major difference in ball movement on from that position, looking at assists and turnovers -
MPG APG TOPG +/-
2016 Horford 33.5 3.2 1.3 +4.7
2017 Howard 28.4 1.0 2.6 -2.4
Horford had more than three times as many assists, while turning the ball over less than half as often (when the per-minute rate is used), and you can see the impact that had on the scoreboards.
Which takes us to tonight, and Budenholzer again starting Thabo Sefolosha ahead of Kyle Korver at the #2 spot. There is nothing terribly wrong with that on a player vs. player comparison, with Korver on the downside of his career, but it does create quite a contrast – a starting lineup that is one of the league’s best defensively, but long-term will be one of the worst on offense.
What had been a rather smooth basketball operation the past couple of seasons is now at a bit of a crisis point, which Budenholzer acknowledges - “None of us would’ve expected this after 9-2. We all have high expectations and high standards. So, yeah, this is a little bit of uncharted waters or unexpected…There’s the uniqueness of Dennis starting and Dwight as a new player. I’m hoping we have enough guys who’ve been here that we can self-correct. But is it maybe a little bit tougher? Could be.”
Hence the focus on tonight. Part of the struggles for the Atlanta assimilation has been an awkward schedule – there was a practice in between home games yesterday for the first time November 11. Now they are settled in, and also get to face a short-handed Miami team that will only have nine players available this evening, Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters, Luke Babbitt and James Johnson not even making the trip. It is an opportunity to see just where the heads of the Hawks are, and if they don’t play well there will be more credence to the notion that this particular team chemistry may not work.
Survivor Pool Week #14
The end-game gambit is at hand now, various pawns and other pieces pushed across the board to the point at which a favorable closing sequence is available. So I can pretty much lay the rest of it out, with no thinking twice about the DETROIT LIONS as this week’s entry.
Left available now is FALCONS over 49ERS for Week #15, COWBOYS over LIONS for Week #16 (with RAMS over 49ERS also an option if needed), and STEELERS over BROWNS for the finale. That is a good position to be sitting in, so the opportunity to sweep through is legitimately there. Of course, it can still all come crashing down this week, with the Bears able to go out and play loosely and with abandon…
Week #1 – Kansas City
Week #2 – Carolina
Week #3 – Miami
Week #4 – Washington
Week #5 – New England
Week #6 – Tennessee
Week #7 – Cincinnati
Week #8 – Denver
Week #9 – Seattle
Week #10 – Arizona
Week #11 – NY Giants
Week #12 – New Orleans
Week #13 – Green Bay
Week #14 - DETROIT
In the Sights, Wednesday NBA…
To borrow a phrase, the Knicks are starting to “get it”, and I am not convinced that Cleveland’s win at Toronto on Monday marked a turnaround. So with the price climbing in the early markets to the point at which +9 has become available, there will be some #712 New York (8:05 Eastern) going into pocket, the likely absence of Derrick Rose not as important as this line is making it out to be (Brandon Jennings is more than capable of adding to his usual minutes).
The Cavaliers were mired in a funk before playing Toronto, an 0-3 SU and ATS slide in which they fell 54.5 points below the market expectations, yet that was not an “all is well” victory over the Raptors. If anything the problems become even more magnified – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were on the floor for 116:26, scoring 86 of the 116 team points, which show the weakness of the supporting cast, made worse now that JR Smith is lost to the rotation, and that win marked the fourth straight game in which they have allowed more than 110 points. In the aftermath the heavy minutes from the big three caused Tyrann Lue to cancel Tuesday practice, which makes the first game without Smith a tougher transition – the natural move would be Iman Shumpert starting, but that impacts the chemistry of the reserves, Shumpert being the only natural PG on the roster behind Irving. The Cavaliers have fallen from #10 in defensive efficiency last season to a current #19, and have genuine vulnerabilities on that end of the court, which makes it difficult to get margins on the road.
The Knicks got off to a slow start because of injuries in the pre-season, making it difficult for Jeff Hornacek to get his rotation in order, but they have won four straight and seven of their last nine. The competition has not been fierce, but at this stage it may be more of a plus for them to get the W’s, which makes it easier for a buy-in on Hornacek’s way of doing things. I believe that confidence and positive energy carries over here in a game the Cavaliers have to win in double figures to rip the ticket, something they have only done once on the road all season, barely reaching that plateau in winning by 11 at Washington nearly a full month ago.
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