Point Blank – November 29, 2016
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #12
There is plenty to sort through a long NFL cycle that began with Vikings/Lions early Thursday, which by now may seem like it was weeks ago for many of you. In particular for guys behind the counter, an awkward sweat began to build until the late Sunday games – prior to the west coast kickoffs the first 11 favorites had all won outright, including covering their side on Teasers. It ended up not being the disaster it could have been with the Bucs, Chiefs and Packers pulling upsets to alleviate a lot of the live Parlays and Teasers.
Now there is much to see as the home stretch approaches in what has been a season of change. Arizona and Carolina met in the first round of the NFC playoffs at the end of the 2015 season, and the Cardinals and Panthers are now a combined 8-12-1 and heading nowhere. You have to stay on your handicapping toes with this league, and even in being nimble there are difficult teams to gauge. Like the seemingly consistent and steady Kansas City Chiefs, who provide one of the current major challenges…
Item: Kansas City has come back from the dead three times in one season
Sub-Item: Grading Chiefs/Broncos is a headache
As the first 11 games of the Chiefs season get analyzed perhaps there is not a more fitting vision than Cairos Santos kicking the ball at one of the uprights in Denver, but having it hit at just the proper angle to ricochet inside the other upright. Game over, KC wins, time to celebrate.
Now the conundrum – the Chiefs are ever so easy to place in the “They are who they are” classification, an A-/B+ side that brings good game plans under Andy Reid, and enough talent to hang around in games via those plans, but not enough to move to a higher level. Except that they are now 17-3 in their last 20 regular-season games, no team sporting a better mark in that span. The problem is that they still just look like who they are, and attempting to make sense of Monday night is a microcosm of that.
Denver thumped the Chiefs 464-273 in total offense, including 6.0 to 3.6 in yards per play. In yards per pass it was 8.7 to 3.8, one of the biggest disparities you will ever see for a team that did not win the game. And in truth it was even worse than that – when Alex Smith and the KC offense took the field for the final drive in regulation down 24-16, they had 145 yards in total offense.
So now the good – they made the plays they had to in order to win, right? That is the tricky part. The Chiefs did score on each of their last three possessions, but across those drives only managed 4.7 yards per play. There were five Broncos penalties that contributed, including three on the last gasp march in regulation.
It was the third time Kansas City won a game when trailing by eight points or more in the fourth quarter this season, which is a remarkable thing to do. The difficulty is that when the handicapper tracks the circumstances, all three of those games appear to be more a result of the opponent making mistakes with the lead rather than KC necessarily stepping up. There was bad game management from Mike McCoy and the Chargers; some terrible decision-making by both Cam Newton and Ron Rivera for the Panthers; then those Denver penalties, plus Gary Kubiak’s gamble on a long FG, on Sunday night. Go back and track the stats for those three games and the Chiefs were the inferior side in each.
Even someone that could easily play the role of a homer, and laud the competitive spirit of the team he covers, recognizes it for what it has been, Sam Mellinger in the Kansas City Star with this Runyonesque quip - The Chiefs are 8-3, somehow, a stunt devil of a team surviving near wreck after actual wreck after near wreck after actual wreck after near wreck and it’s all so hard to keep track of anymore.
?Kansas City is 8-3 despite having scored 21 offensive touchdowns in 11 games. That is not easy to do. But when you make that many rallies it does build a confidence in a team, and that confidence can have them playing a half grade above their talent level. It is the way they feel about themselves that is now a prime handicapping factor.
Now time to work on some other teams that are challenging to grade…
Item: No standing Pat(s) on the New England power rating
About a month ago I had the Patriots close to a full TD better than any other team, not necessarily a case of them being great, but because the usual #2 types are a cut below this season. That is no more, and it is important to understand why - the Pats have a ceiling now on offense.
Back during the summer preview cycle there was a major focus on what that Brady/Gronkowski/Bennett trio could accomplish, the opportunity to become one of the best offenses ever through talent and tactics. There was the potential to offer challenges to defenses that they had never faced, much like the headache of facing an option team on the NCAA gridirons, it was going to be a one-off game plan for opposing DCs to try to come up with a scheme. That still may be the case when 2017 rolls around, but there are now major limitations for this season.
It started back with Brady’s suspension, which not only took him out of the first four games, but also limited how much time the trio could work together in training camp. Now Gronkowski has had multiple injuries, missing one game entirely and leaving during the third drive vs. the Jets without returning; Brady sat out two practices last week; and even Bennett missed part of Sunday’s win. Instead of those vaunted two-TE sets it was the New England offense having to gut it out with the other parts, the Gronk/Bennett box score production being only three catches for 22 yards.
The Patriots are still formidable, and may end up with the home field advantage in the AFC playoffs, but come January they will have had no more than a half season max with Brady and the TEs working together in practice and games. My early high rating was based on their upside; my new lower rating recognizes their reality.
Item: The Ravens ran the ball more, and better
Sub-Item: Don’t you dare allow the final play to cloud the rushing stats
Even with a change in OCs, the Ravens are not going to be special on offense – there is a missing rhythm that needed to be there by now, and in particular there remains an inability to make big plays, despite having Steve Smith, Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman to stretch defenses. What they did manage to do in grinding out a win over Cincinnati on Sunday was stay committed to the run deeper into a game, but you need to go beyond the box score for that, and for folks that automatically download stats into spread sheets, you have some editing to do.
John Harbaugh called a great play to close out the Bengals, having punter Sam Koch take an intentional safety, while also telling his blockers to hold the Cincy defenders to give Koch enough time to burn out the clock – no matter how many penalty flags got thrown, the game would be over. It was mission accomplished on the scoreboard, but a good football play gets measured improperly through the usual procedures.
Baltimore is docked as having lost 23 yards on a running play, while the Bengal defense gets credit for making a positive play in which they actually did nothing. Hence the 30 rushes for 92 yards, and 3.1 per carry, that gets recorded forever. Junk that. Have your stats read 29-115 and you have a better grading for both teams, Kenneth Dixon and Terrance West not special for the Ravens, but in this case they were good enough.
What you should create is a “Team” category in box scores, and use that for such plays, which would also include QB kneel downs at the end of games. Some of this does require the extra time of going through play-by-play results, but that extra time can be the difference between winning and losing. So let’s go to Oakland for a minute, where the Raiders keep winning, if not in the prettiest of fashion.
Item: You need to adjust Oakland for Derek Carr’s kneel downs
Sub-Item: Even after you do that the rush stats were ugly again
The victory formation is something that football stats get backward, penalizing one team for being successful, and rewarding another for failure. Even when the yardage is benign there is still at least a minimal impact, but for Oakland and Carolina it became a big deal on Sunday – Carr lost nine yards on his two kneel-downs, which does damage to the rushing columns. So you adjust for that, the 30-55 for the Raiders becoming 28-64, and then note that amidst the good feelings in Oakland there may be a problem emerging.
Latavius Murray has carried the call 31 times for 78 yards in those last two close wins, almost two full yards per carry below his season average of 4.4 entering the games. Of the 31 tries, not one went for more than seven yards.
Here is what was particularly alarming about Sunday – the Panthers were without Luke Kuechly, which created the potential for some vulnerability. That didn’t happen. The Raiders are in a legit battle for the home field advantage in the playoffs now, but to get there they will need to find a way to run the ball effectively over the stretch drive.
Item: What now for the Cardinals (grading Arizona/Atlanta is not easy)
Much like Chiefs/Broncos, Atlanta’s 38-19 win over Arizona, which looks so dominating on the scoreboard, requires some sorting through. The teams finished with 5.4 yards per play each, with the same number of turnovers, and in the NFL that hardly calls for one team winning by 19 points. Julio Jones and the Falcons were just a step ahead when it mattered most, and for the Cardinals it turned out to be more of the same – a team that has done a lot of things right this season has simply not maximized what was available.
From the Arizona side of the equation a litany of mistakes added up, including dropped passes by both the offense and defense, and a major swing when Calais Campbell jumped off-sides when the Falcons were set to punt in the fourth quarter, that penalty extending a drive that turned into a TD. Campbell acknowledge the fault, and also the dilemma ahead - “Definitely one of the dumbest plays of my career. This is pretty frustrating, but we have to dig deep and keeping playing ball.”
The latter issue comes front and center now. The Cardinals just had tough back-to-back road games at Minnesota and Atlanta, and if you graded them play-by-play, may well have won more snaps than they lost. But the game-changing plays weren’t there, and in this case perhaps season-changing plays – at 4-6-1, even a sweep of the final five games might not be enough for a Wild Card slot.
Bruce Arians was succinct, and to the point - “It’s very frustrating. You’ve got to start with yourself and see if you’re asking guys to do things they can’t do. I don’t think catching the ball is one of them. … Defensively, we had some guys get out of their lane again, try to do too much. They tried to get on the stat sheet instead of just doing their job. That’s selfishness instead of selflessness that’s crept in. That’s an individual thing.”
Arizona takes the practice field this week as the antithesis of Kansas City – the Chiefs bringing a springboard of confidence because they have been able to play above their abilities, while the Cardinals face both a crisis of confidence, and one of motivation. That will lead to a lot of reading between the lines this week – imagine what the spread would have been for a home game vs. the Redskins earlier in the week, and now look at the current tariff. Arizona may still be the better team in the matchup, but do the Cardinals still believe in themselves, and in this season?
Item: Matt Barkley played decent QB for the Bears
Sub-Item: The Bears dropped a lot of Barkley’s passes
Sub-Item: Is that simply who these WRs are
For some more challenging grading from this past week we head to Chicago, where the injury-riddled Bears were on the verge of being blown out by Tennessee, trailing 27-7 in the fourth quarter, before putting together an improbable rally. There are multiple dilemmas here.
First is determining how much the two fourth quarter TD drives by the Bears, long grinders of 14 plays and 13 plays, were the result of the Titans sitting back in a prevent, allowing for such grinding, and how much goes to Chicago merit. Until those marches five of the first seven Bears possessions lasted four plays or less. Where Mike Mularkey got into trouble was the belief that he could safely play the clock in the final stanza based perhaps on confidence in his own offense contributing, but the two Titan drives in the sequence were a pair of three-and-outs. That left just enough time for one final Chicago strike at the goal line, and it almost played out.
Second is grading Barkley, who went from being a dud for much of the game to a confident and aggressive QB down the stretch, almost willing the Bears to the outright win. He did his part, putting the ball where it had to be, and with better receivers on the other end may well have won the game. Except…
After film review that got elevated to 11 drops from the folks at Pro Football Focus. That leads to part three – was this a terrible performance by the Chicago receivers, or a reflection that without Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White, this roster is filled with players that are not NFL caliber? Josh Bellamy and Deonte Thompson each had the ball slip through their hands in the end zone on the final possession. The question becomes whether that is simply who they are, or if there is any kind of upside.
From John Fox: “Like everything, if it doesn’t go real well, the more you do it the better you get. Those game conditions are a little bit different from practice. A lot of those guys played more in this game against the Titans than they had all season.”
The Bears will throw one more player into the mix this week, rookie WR Daniel Braverman, drafted in the 7th round this past spring, taking injured LB Danny Trevathan’s spot on the roster. Braverman is another guy that lacks much pedigree. Can another week of working with Barkley help this WR corps develop some chemistry, or are they simply not good enough? There is some intrigue, because they get to face the rather hapless San Francisco defense this week.
In the Sights, Tuesday hoops…
Now that +7 has returned in the morning trading session the value point is available again to get behind #763 San Jose State (10:00 Eastern), backing a team that will be the epitome of a “tough out” on the road this season, especially given that the Spartans bring no sizzle to the marketplace, which helps create the value. And with tonight’s setting also a bit unique there is something else the markets have missed.
SJS going 9-22 in Dave Wojcik’s third season won’t have bells ringing in many places, but that equaled the number of wins in his first two seasons on the job combined. There was finally enough depth to compete for the full 40 minutes, and there was the kind of basketball soundness that led to a 6-3 ATS log as a MWC road underdog. Now the Spartans have opened 2-0 ATS in the road dog role this season, including that 88-76 outright win at Washington State on Saturday. To some this may now look like a difficult spot, two road games in three days, but I believe it is actually the opposite.
Wojcik’s team will have been settled in to the area for quite some time now – the Washington State/Idaho campuses are only seven miles apart, so there is no travel involved. That means playing with no loss of physical energy at all, and also working around the usual road issues of staying in a new hotel for the first time – there are no changes here. Now there is an added confidence behind the teamwork that won so convincingly on Sunday, with no player going more than 30 minutes, and the Spartans winning the rebounding battle by a dozen, while only turning the ball over seven times. That kind of sound tactical basketball has them in the hunt all the way here, against a favorite that will be hard-pressed to get anything easy, and in front of what will be a far from intimidating crowd - the Vandals drew 474 fans for their last home game vs. South Dakota State. Seriously.
Vegas: Monday with the Review-Journal NFL box score page
If you are like me, and because of the sports cycleaany of you probably are, Thanksgiving leftovers are an annual rite of passage. Because the weekend schedule is filled with bettable football and basketball around the clock time is of the essence, so remixing the various components left over from Thursday’s dining becomes a major part of that cycle. But for as enjoyable as those various combinations can be, but a certain point the taste buds demand a drastic shift, which will annually call for the Monday after Thanksgiving to be far from routine. Las Vegas is a good place to be when such an adventure is needed, especially now that we have Chengdu Taste (3950 Schiff Drive, there is no website).
The original, in LA’s San Gabriel Valley, is considered by some savvy folks to be the best Sichuan restaurant in the United States. Their sister property has been open here for a little over a year now and is a regular in my rotation, one of the world’s great cuisines being represented in authentic fashion, spice as something that becomes elegant when done to the right standards and consistency.
So much of the food labeled as Sichuan, or any of the various spellings, across the U.S. is rather awful. Far too often it is simply taking traditional Chinese dishes and adding whatever hot peppers happen to be available, playing off the mindset that Sichuan = Hot. Some bad restaurateurs use that heat to hide bad ingredients, which is even worse, and many would not even have a genuine Sichuan peppercorn in their panty. While it is true that heat does play a prime role in dishes from the region, proper Sichuan cooking comes from blending those components into something that elevates the other ingredients, rather than hiding them.
Monday brought the classic Mapo Tofu, about as close to “soul food” for folks from that region as perhaps any dish for any culture. At Chengdu Taste the blending is rather exquisite, for those that deal with chiles and Sichuan peppercorns well – there is a vibrant silkiness in which the components shine, the heat almost addictive. And there was also something brought home for Packers/Eagles, a lunch trip to Chengdu almost always leading to carry-out as well, taking advantage of the opportunity to literally spice things up.
Portions are large, their expectation that most folks coming in will do so in groups, in order to share, so be forewarned. They are also still BYOB for now, so if making an evening of it you might want to consider bringing along some good IPAs or perhaps a nice Riesling – they will cut through the spice well, and help to keep your taste buds balanced. There is also little English spoken, but the menu is nicely laid out with photographs, so you can communicate well with the staff.
Of course a heavy dose of that spice packs quite a punch at lunch time, so a palate cleanser can be needed before heading back to work, and that led to a usual stop on Monday at one of the more iconic places on the Las Vegas food scene – Ronald’s Donuts (4600 Spring Mountain).
Ronald’s is right in the heart of the area we call Chinatown, but was there long before the first Asian restaurant had opened. Henry and Janie Kang have been doing something unique for more than two decades, putting out some of the best pastries in Las Vegas, but with a kick – true to their Buddhist beliefs, most of the products are vegan (the top two rows in the display case). I don’t eat them because they are vegan, but instead because they are good, and there is such a great old-school vibe about the way they do things.
Their version of a Boston Crème has been the topper for likely over 100 Asian lunches through the years, so much that Janie knows where to reach when I come in, although often there will be an apple fritter or something else taken home for later. They haven’t changed anything that they do in a long time, and I hope they never will.
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