Point Blank – October 22, 2016
MLB Weekend Edition (or just a Saturday edition?)…
The tension level in the first go-round between Clayton Kershaw and Kyle Hendricks was rather remarkable, 251 pitches being thrown in Wrigley last Sunday night with only one run scored, the second-inning HR by Adrian Gonzalez also being the only extra-base hit of the game.
As we head to Game #6 the pressure only mounts, with a couple of twists – now not only does Kershaw come in fully rested, instead of being out of his usual routine (which did not show in any way over his 84 pitches, 55 of them in the strike zone), but all bullpen arms are fresh and ready. That sets us up with another setting in which the hitters are not going to get much to work with, and much of whatever does get in play will get gobbled up by a pair of outstanding defenses, the Cubs #1 in PADE and the Dodgers #3.
None of that is lot on the marketplace, so with a mild evening in Wrigley with a negligible wind we are seeing 6.5 Under -120 as the most common Total, with prospect of going to six.
7:05 PM CDT on October 22, 2016
| 6:00 PM | 7:00 PM | 8:00 PM | 9:00 PM | 10:00 PM | 11:00 PM |
Wind |
8 mph SW |
7 mph SW |
7 mph SW |
7 mph SW |
7 mph SW |
7 mph SW |
Conditions |
Partly Cloudy |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Clear |
Temperature |
57 °F |
56 °F |
55 °F |
53 °F |
52 °F |
51 °F |
Humidity |
57 % |
61 % |
65 % |
70 % |
74 % |
76 % |
Chance of Rain |
0 % |
0 % |
0 % |
0 % |
1 % |
1 % |
I see some opportunity out there. For as great as Kershaw is, the best of them all when on his game, it is not often that we find a team that was good enough to generate a 109-61 to this point, and a pitcher that led MLB in ERA, priced as an underdog in a home game, Chicago going 60-25 at Wrigley this season. Where I am going to put it into play is to take advantage of the scarcity of runs and make it #901 Cubs Run Line (8:05 Eastern), which is available at +1.5 -150. That is right at the edge of the value range, but in this instance consider it to be much like an NFL Teaser – the extra vig being laid out works because of how few runs I believe there are going to be.
The Cubs would have been 24-8 in the 32 Hendricks starts with a +1.5 attached, and his consistency was a big part of that – he never allowed more than four earned runs, and in 26 of the games gave up two or less. Take his form, and combine it with the best defense in the sport and a rested bullpen, including the ability for Joe Maddon to use three different left-handers, and this is a fair price point to play against the Dodgers getting any kind of margin (they are only 10-14 as -1.5 in the 24 Kershaw starts this season).
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