Point Blank – September 21
Was Miami's 2nd Half Signal or Noise…It is an easy week to pick the Browns to lose (though aren't they all)…The markets have dropped Syracuse/Connecticut into the wrong bin…
One of the on-going themes in handicapping across all sports is a notion of timing, looking for those “buy signals” that tell us when we might be able to get ahead of the market curve in either backing, or opposing, a particular player or team. It is among the finer points of Post Mortem game analysis, and because there was a rather classic game in that regard from Sunday, one that can have interpretations almost a full 180 degrees apart, the notion goes to the front today.
Item: About that Second Half in Foxboro
Back when it was time to preview the Miami Dolphins on the summer tour across the NFL, there was a notion of wanting to like Adam Gase in Miami, and in particular how he might be the coaching fit that Ryan Tannehill needed all along. There was also a caution, noting that because the Dolphins had been so under-coached in recent years it could be a slow process in terms of building a proper foundation. And a schedule that called for an opening salvo of Seahawks/Patriots on the road was particularly daunting in terms of both the quality of the opponents, but also the travel involved.
As such Miami was under a pre-season microscope, the offense in particular, while at the same time Chicago was also being tracked. Let’s delve into the latter first, because the dismal showing by the Bears on Monday plays a part in this.
Let’s look at Jay Cutler’s career, and then isolate to the one season in which he had Gase as his OC -
PR CMP% YPP INT%
Career 85.9 62.0 7.2 3.3
2015 92.3(1) 64.4(2) 7.6(1) 2.3(1)
Note the number of career-bests, and also the #2 in completion percentage. Gase got Cutler to play in rhythm, getting the ball out and avoiding mistakes, and short throws and playing in rhythm would seem to be the Tannehill wheelhouse. So while the Miami overall performance in August was nothing special, I believe the following from the folks at Pro Football Focus, in breaking down the Best Player at Every Position in the Pre-Season is worth filing away -
QB: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Tannehill completed 64.2 percent of his passes this preseason, which is OK, but he also suffered from seven dropped passes, the third-most in the league. Add those drops in and his adjusted completion percentage is 77.4, and featured some excellent passes. This is a big season for Tannehill in new coach Adam Gase’s offensive system, and at least in preseason the signs are good.
That did not carry over into the opener at Seattle, when the assimilation to the new playbook was close to square one, the Dolphins only managing 11 first downs. That was more along the lines of expectation in the transition, and the first half against New England was dismal, the Dolphins falling behind 31-3 after the opening Pats possession of the third quarter.
Now the conundrum…
Was the remainder of that game merely a case of a team piling up points and stats through the back-door, taking advantage of Jimmy Garropolo’s injury, which limited the Patriots ability to attack and work the clock? Was that the New England defense backing off, with a quick turnaround to Thursday’s game vs. the Texans coming up? Or was there genuinely something to see from an offense that averaged 7.5 yards per play for the full game, #3 across the league this week?
There is a preface to this, before we get to the specifics of Tannehill, and that is the Dolphins keeping their heads in the game and competing was not something we had seen from them in recent years. They legitimately fought back, and got two snaps from the Patriots 29-yard line at the end of the game to go for the tying score, the final play being a forced interception in the end zone that we don’t penalize QBs for.
The weighting of the numbers is delicate. There absolutely was a degree of New England taking a breather. Yet there were also consecutive TD dries of 75 yards in seven plays; 88 in five, and 74 in nine by the Dolphins. There was a confidence and a rhythm shown by the offense, and you know what that sort of thing can mean – regardless of how hard the Patriots were trying to stop them, when a QB and his offense begin to believe in themselves it is a major step in the process of development.
On that psychological component, I found this particular post-game comment from Tannehill to be meaningful – “I saw a lot of toughness, a lot of resilience from our guys.” And in terms of the numbers, let’s go to PFF again –
Quarterback grade: Ryan Tannehill, 85.9
Tannehill sharp with short passes
Tannehill earned the highest game grade of any Dolphin. He was effective and accurate on short passes, completing 30 of 32 passes that were targeted short of 10 yards. However, he wasn’t’ effective throwing deep and only completed two of eight passes targeted beyond 20 yards.
There may have been more than just back-door stuff going on, and note that prior to the TD drives Miami had three possessions end with turnovers, while the Dolphins also had to settle for a field goal from the New England nine-yard line with time running out in the First Half.
I believe there is something to see here, and while it will take time for all of the pieces to come together, there is at least one way we can put it into play this week…
Survivor Pool Week #3
This is no degree of genius involved here, much like last week there will be plenty of company in using MIAMI in this spot. But it fits. As noted in the Tuesday NFL wrap-up, with new coaches across the board, 17 rookies on the roster, and Cody Kessler having to start at QB, the Browns are not too far removed from being an expansion squad. In the first home game for Gase the momentum of last Sunday’s Second Half can carry over against a defensive front that won’t put much pressure at all on Tannehill, opening the door for the Dolphins to control this one rather easily (at #3 in SPS so far, despite being at Seattle and New England, the Miami pace can wear the Browns DL down, and perhaps out).
Week #1 – Kansas City
Week #2 – Carolina
Week #3 – MIAMI DOLPHINS
Not really off-topic…
You won’t win a single bet off of this, but as the Vin Scully era winds down, Jayson Stark’s piece at ESPN is a terrific read.
And how about this -
Brett Edgerton @EditorEdge
Now here is something that you can bet…
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday…
Much like Miami/New England on Sunday there was a game with a game flow that could lead to all sorts of interpretations the previous day, when South Florida went from being down 17-0 early in the second quarter at Syracuse to winning 45-20. I believe some in the marketplace have taken the wrong read, and with an opener of -6.5 now having fallen to -3.5, with some -3 to be found, it will be #322 Connecticut (1:00 Eastern, note the time change) in play. There is -3 available at -120 at CRIS and clones now, and at worst you should be able to do -3.5 at reduced vig, as long as the vultures leave a little meat on the carcass (UPDATING: The insatiable Numbervores that frequent these surroundings were rather ravenous with this one; consider Connecticut a full play at -4, and a reduction of about 33% of bet size to -5).
That Syracuse/USF flow was a part of the Monday NCAA review noting a turning point that may have looked more dramatic than it really was, Dino Babers going for it on a 4th down play from his own 47 yards-line ahead 17-7. The play failed, and it was a one-sided affair the rest of the way. Did that play turn things? I do not believe so, and neither did Babers, so let me repeat a key part of his post-game press conference -
"Let me back this up. Think about who we have. Think about who is playing. Think about who we're playing against. Look at what's going on defensively with injuries. Look at those skill receivers and that quarterback. Even though you're in the first quarter you can look at what's going on down the road. You saw numerous dropped balls by their wide receivers. You saw guys getting open. If they're making those catches it's a different game.”
You could read that as – “Look, I have a young team without any depth and we had no way to stop USF as long as they didn’t stop themselves. The only chance we were going to have to win the game was take some big gambles”.
Then we go to the next part, the statistical breakdowns, and it really does show how limited Syracuse is right now – the Orange had 53 more offensive plays than Louisville and South Florida the past two weeks, yet still lost on the scoreboard by 59, and to the spread by 29.5 points. Let that sink it, because it really matters. Even with all of that possession advantage to keep the defense fresh, Syracuse was out-scored in the Second Half by a resounding 44-10 in those games. And that was at home. Now a young team has to take to the road for the first time, not just the travel involved but also playing outdoors on a grass field, and I see a high degree of vulnerability here.
Who makes the plays late to win a close game, which this is expected to be by the marketplace? So often it will be the team with the most experience, and the defensive gap between these teams in both quality and experience is massive. The Syracuse depth chart this week shows seven freshmen or sophomores staring on defense, with no seniors, and seven of the 11 back-ups are also freshmen or sophomores. That is why Babers went for it on fourth down multiple times vs. South Florida. Even the offense has as many underclassmen starting as seniors.
Meanwhile Connecticut only starts one underclassman on what will be a solid defense, and in particular note some fluky scoreboard aspects so far – two of the TDs scored against the Huskies were fumble returns against their offense. That experience matters in this matchup – down the stretch last year Bob Diaco’s team faced spread offenses from East Carolina and Houston on this field and had the proper tactics in place, a 2-0 SU and ATS in which they beat the market expectations by 34 points. Yes, an injury to Greg Ward played a huge part in the Houston win, Ward only playing one possession, but the defense was fundamentally sound against the way that the Cougars spread the field, holding them to 318 yards.
I also believe that while this is a big game for the Huskies, who have legit hopes of going to a bowl for the second straight season, it is more about building for the future than winning now for Babers and Syracuse; and the Orange may be a bit distracted by playing Notre Dame at East Rutherford on national television next week, this being just a non-descript non-conference affair. With Connecticut not being asked to do much more than just grind out a win it the current trading, the setting brings value to the table.
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