Point Blank – September 7
Time to jump in The Pool, 2016 Survivor style…D. J. Durkin returns to the state of Florida (which may mean more than most folks realize)…Twilight is setting in on Danny Duffy’s season…
It is time to step up to the high dive before jumping in to the 2016 NFL Survival Pool waters, with the aim hopefully for the deep end, and today will also be one of the forays into aspects of the NCAA football board in which edges can be found that not many others will be looking at. This time it probably won’t lead directly to a wager, but there is some valuable food for thought.
Item: Time to get wet
I will be choosing a team each Wednesday in a Survivor Pool format, or at least I will today, if you get my drift. Many of you will be involved in such adventures, so let’s delve into some of the concepts behind putting yourself in the best position to win.
There are two basic schools of thought: 1. Play the team with the single best chance of winning that particular week in order to stay alive as long as possible, and then deal with the diminished options later; or 2. Try to spread the board out by looking for optimal weeks to get each team into play, and holding back some of the better candidates as long as possible.
I believe this season muddles both processes in that there are not a lot of dominant teams at the top, while at the bottom even the weakest links in the chain show some positive development. There are often seasons in which an extremely weak team can be isolated early and played against, bringing the ability to sneak in some wins with sub-par sides, but there isn’t much of that in 2016.
My strategy is a mixture of the two notions, though leaning more to the second – if the key to winning is having an advantage over the competition, you have more opportunities to gain an advantage from the second route, rather than merely aligning with many of the folks that opt for #1. You eschew the comfort of having a better chance to hang around longer, but that comfort rarely has consolation prizes attached. So let’s get to it.
To go the distance will require using 17 teams, though precious few Pools go to the final week, so from the start you can work from a 1-17 listing based on your power ratings. What you would ideally like to do is grab a couple of wins from teams lower than #17, which means keeping options open, and there will be considered attempts to do that. Week #1 offers next-to-nothing on that front, PHILADELPHIA the only team close to qualifying, but Carson Wentz in his debut may bring water that is too shallow.
SEATTLE will likely be the most popular team this week, and the Seahawks are indeed the best way to advance to Week #2. They are not even a notion for me, however, with future home games against the 49ers, Bills, Eagles and Rams providing solid options. The game against Philadelphia is not until Week #11, and it may well be that I hold this team back that far (knock on wood).
The two options at the top of my list are KANSAS CITY and HOUSTON. Often early in the season if two teams are close I will try to sneak the weaker side through, saving the better for later, but in the case of the Chiefs that does not help all that much – there are home games later with New Orleans and Jacksonville that will be near this spread range, but are not necessarily better opportunities. And while the Bears had a dismal pre-season, John Fox had them in the hunt to win just about every week in 2015, and Houston does not bring that polish yet to be trusted to gut out a close game.
Survivor 2016
Week #1 – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Now let’s talk some college football…
Item: Maryland/FIU is more than just a non-conference trip for D. J. Durkin
I am preparing to like D. J. Durkin, and I believe the shrewd handicapper out there probably should as well. There may not have been popping of champagne corks from Maryland football fans when he was hired this past off-season; in an era of explosive fast-paced offenses bringing in a guy whose resume shows defense first would not bring excitement. But perhaps there should be.
Durkin’s resume is a good one, having coached under Urban Meyer at both Bowling Green and Florida, and under Jim Harbaugh at both Stanford and Michigan. There is a sound defensive acumen, but what could help the Terrapins even more is something that will not show up in the resume – Durkin has a reputation for being one of the best young recruiters out there, and in particular gained a lot of experience in the talent-rich state of Florida. So as the focus here continually goes to finding edges from directions that others may not be looking, Maryland is under the microscope a bit more this week, and next, in what would otherwise look like uninspiring non-conference trips to Florida International and Central Florida.
How good can Durkin be in the living room of a prospect? Just a couple of years ago, Rivals.com named him Recruiter of the Year when he was a University of Florida assistant, so when he first got the Maryland job I naturally wondered if making the Sunshine State a big part of the base for the Terrapin roster would come into play – if they are going to legitimately compete in the Big 10 they will need it.
It hasn’t taken long for the answer to that question to come in. From the folks at the Testudo Times, an excellent source for Maryland info, the number of scholarship offers made to Florida players for the upcoming recruiting class is nearly double that of any other state.
This is something to file away for the next two games. While I see no special value in Maryland at -10.5 this week, and it is indeed early days in the building process under Durkin, these are games in which a lot of his potential recruits may be in attendance (acknowledging that playing this week on a Friday night hurts in that regard), which adds far more focus for him than they would ordinarily bring to the table.
Item: Get your NFL Fantasy thinking caps on
As noted earlier in the week, there will be a Point Blank NFL Fantasy Challenge, and I will create a thread for the entries beginning Thursday morning. The deadline will be kickoff on Sunday, since I do not believe the Carolina/Denver game is going to give all that much away.
The format will be simple, yet challenging enough. You will select three players –
- QB Rushing and Passing Yards and TD Passes/TDs Scored2
- RB Rushing and Receiving Yards and all TDs Scored3
- WR/TE Rushing and Receiving Yards and all TDs Scored
Players get one point for yards, and six for TDs. Note that special teams TDs count for the RBs and WR/TE category.
There are three prizes – a signed copy of Arne Lang’s engrossing new tome “Sports Betting and Bookmaking: An American History”; a $100 gift card from Omaha Steaks; and of course the bragging rights over your peers, which one cannot even put a price on.
In the Sights…
Back in the early part of the season the added zip on Danny Duffy’s stuff was a major focus point, the Royals indirectly sharpening his skills by having him begin the season out of the bullpen. There may have been some consequences to that, however, Duffy now appearing to be wearing down, and that helps to set us up for #975 Royals/Twins Over (8:10 Eastern), the early markets helping out by opening up 9 as a win number.
A problem with Duffy beginning the campaign in the bullpen, his first start not coming until May 15, was one of not developing the stamina to go the distance when put back into a starter’s role. He has not been able to finish the 6th inning in his last two starts, getting tagged for 11 runs over 10.2 frames, on 18 hits, 3 walks and 4 home runs. But it was in what seemed like a good start three games back against these Twins that cracks were showing – while he only allowed one run over 6.2 frames, the Minnesota offense produced 10 base-runners via hit or walk. Now Duffy takes the mound having already matched his career high of 149.1 frames, and the closing salvo to the season may not go well for him.
Not much has gone well for Kyle Gibson in a dismal 5-9/5.31 campaign, the inherent difficulties of a pitch-to-contact guy playing with a bad defense behind him. It may look like a .330 BABIP has been some bad baseball geometry for Gibson, but the Twins as a team are dead last at .323, so it is indeed a weak combination. PADE pegs the Minnesota defense at #28, and you may remember back to an earlier lead take on the foibles of those gloves here. Gibson does not have the form to eat innings, having reached the 6th only once over his last seven starts, and that can lead to some ugliness late, with the Twins bullpen a mess right now, having allowed 21 runs over the last three games, throwing 284 pitches in the process.
It does not take an explosion here, just getting each team to four runs means a win, and that is more than fair value to work with.
In the Sights, MLB Part II...
Time to get in play this afternoon now that the lineups are confirmed with #970 A's/Angels First Five Under (3:35 Eastern), with two under-valued starting pitchers getting a chance to face rather undistinguished competition, yet the 5's still holding up out there (make it good to -120).
Alex Meyer makes his Angels debut, a #1 pick in the 2011 draft that got a late start to the season because of a shoulder strain, but he was effective in his AAA tuneups, and at 6-9 will be a tough read on the first two passes through the lineup for Oakland. Meanwhile Jharel Cotton has showed terrific command numbers across 135.2 innings at AAA, 155 walks vs. 39 strikeouts, and he should relish the opportunity to face an Angels lineup missing Trout/Pujols.
The Point Blank 2016 NFL Team by Team Previews
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)