Point Blank – August 24
The counter-culture of the Titans ground game (and be prepared to like Derrick Henry)…Jacob DeGrom’s stuff was fine at San Francisco (and how we can take advantage of it)…The Trojan horse may only look like a pony against this schedule…
There is action across several fronts on Wednesday, including the first NCAA football wager of the 2016 season so there is a lot to get to, starting with the Tennessee Titans as the NFL training camp tour rolls on.
Item: The Titans are going to run the ball, and run it well
It isn’t any secret that the modern NFL has become a passing game, dominated by QBs and their receivers, the rules making it more difficult for the defenses to stop them. You can see below the steady increase in passing yards per team per game, up a little over 10 percent since 2010, and except for 2014 the number of passes thrown has increased annually.
ATT YDS
2010 33.7 221.6
2011 34.0 229.7
2012 34.7 231.3
2013 35.4 235.6
2014 34.9 236.8
2015 35.7 243.8
This season we are going to find out what happens when one team attempts to go against that flow, opting to ramp up for a power ground game to attack defenses that have gotten smaller and quicker, and could be vulnerable to such tactics. But the story with Mike Mularkey and Tennessee actually began last season, when he took over the reigns amidst a disappointing opening to the campaign.
Here is what a couple of OL starters had to say about the sudden change in focus when Mularkey took over, which I felt worth filing away at the time. First from Chance Warmack - “Coach Mularkey has been preaching the run since day one, he takes it to heart to run the ball with a physical attitude, and we mirror his expectations.” And Byron Bell - “We started off with a run period, and that set a tone. Guys were getting after it, we had a couple of guys scrapping. We’re bringing out the physicality.”
It did not lead to much of a change in fortunes on the field, the Titans only going 2-7 under Mularkey, but there was not much cause for hope if the focus goes to running the ball and the three top rushers were Antonio Andrews, Dexter McCluster and David Cobb. That is not the story now. The first question is whether or not the counter-culture of a more physical approach can work in 2016, and I believe that answer is yes. The second is whether this particular team can make it work, and I answer that yes as well.
Things are interesting up front. While the OL was nothing special in terms of performance LY and has much to prove, three starters are recent first-round draft choices – Warmack (2013), Taylor Lewan (2014) and Jack Conklin (2016). If those draft pedigrees were proper there is upside, especially with Ben Jones brought in as a free agent to upgrade at center.
The transformation at RB is substantial. DeMarco Murray may have been a disappointment with the Eagles last year, perhaps to be expected after being overworked so badly in Dallas in 2014, but that got him out at only 193 carries, which may be a long-term boost for him. And then comes Derrick Henry, perhaps the most unlikely player to be under-rated that there could be, yet that may be his proper classification. Win a Heisman Trophy and a National Championship and ordinarily you are at the other end of the spectrum, yet somehow Henry was still on the draft board when pick #45 rolled around. Pencil him in as a major key.
The Titans were pleasantly surprised that Henry was still on the board that late in the 2nd round, but have been even more surprised by what he has shown in camp, and then the first two pre-season games (15 carries for 105 yards and a TD). There is a layer of explosiveness he is showing that was not visible at Alabama.
Here is the gist – many college RBs put up big “system” numbers. Spread offenses and option running packages get them out into open space, and it is not unusual for big runs to break open when the runner is not faced with contact, or having to make decisions – they simply take advantage of what the scheme provided. That was not the case with Henry. He earned so many of those yards at Alabama inside of a system that rarely got him into open field, with so much of the production being methodical plunges into the line. Henry only caught 17 passes in his Crimson Tide career.
Fast forward to training camp and Henry has shown explosiveness as a runner, and also the skill set to be a good receiver. Let’s let Mularkey detail the later - “I think he’s been impressive, especially with the one-on-ones. He’s a very good route runner. Some of the teamwork we did and some of the routes that he ran, again, I always say there’s a lot of young guys that everything is so fast for them, they speed up the process. I haven’t seen that with him. He’s very patient, getting the depths he’s supposed to be getting at, beating guys that are cover guys, so I’ve been pretty impressed with him.”
There may be something to see with this offense, and in particular Henry could be a gem. If the scouts were correct in the draft positions, that OL that group can take a leap forward as they come together, and the RB corps is outstanding (among the Tennessee cuts will be Andrews, Cobb or Bishop Sankey, who will all catch on with another team). With the ability of Marcus Mariota to handle the read option and put additional pressure on defenses, something Mularkey has said he is willing to dial up, there is a key dimension added. Be prepared to like the way this team is going to run the ball, and also to look for situations to put that into play.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
Two of the most talented young pitchers in the sport, and two of the hardest throwers, square off tonight in St. Louis against lineups that are missing key cogs, and also lack experience against them. Yet the price is more than fair off of the recent results for those hurlers, and that sets up #956 Cardinals/Mets First Half Under (8:15 Eastern), with 4 at -110 available in the early markets (this works up to -125).
Jacob DeGrom has had a solid 7-6/2.73 season, and it has been 11-7/3.24 for Carlos Martinez. No flukes there, they are legit talents. But that little “last 3 starts” to the side of most pitching forms shows an ominous 0-1/4.82 for DeGrom and 1-1/5.00 for Martinez, and their seeming lack of form helps bring the favorable price point. Yes, DeGrom had about as bad of a result as he is ever going to have at San Francisco on Thursday, getting tagged for eight runs on 13 hits over five innings, but that was not an indictment of the quality of the pitches – the average fast-ball was 94.8, his second high of the season, and 70 of 92 pitches were in the strike zone. In this case the geometry was not favorable, a single-game .600 BABIP. Now DeGrom gets five days off from that poor outing, which brings him in physically refreshed, and I believe in his moxie as well. The available Cardinals are only 4-22 against him with eight strikeouts, all four of the hits being singles, so he can be trusted to make a couple of good passes through a lineup still sans Holliday/Diaz/Adams.
Meanwhile Martinez brings the best of both worlds, not only averaging 96.4 on his fast-ball (only Noah Syndergaard has been faster, among starters), but also sporting a 56.2 GB%, and it is the kind of stuff that can mean Cy Young contention in the future. For now it means tough reads for a Mets lineup that will be without Neil Walker, and note that Jay Bruce is the only one with at least 10 at-bats against him, going 1-15 with a pair of strikeouts. There is nothing wrong with the Martinez form – he scuffled against the Braves three starts back but bounced back to pitch well against the Cubs in Wrigley and the Astros at Minute Made, with more strikeouts than hits allowed across those two tough assignments. And like DeGrom he has had added rest since his last outing, which should show in the early stages.
The fact that both starters are fresher than usual for late August, and also both lineups lacking in experience against them, makes the First Half the preferred path, as does the fact that neither bullpen is set up well off of last night’s game flow.
In the Sights, NCAA Football…
Long-time poster Sharp Sider (you will particularly enjoy his NFL thoughts this fall) and I touched upon this one as part of the Tuesday thread, and every once in a while there will be mentions in our discourses of the lovely scenery around the USC campus. He is a grad, and long ago I could have been one, before some sage advice from the late Edward Bassett, who was head of the School of Journalism at the time, led to a much different life arc. It has proven to be an adventurous and fulfilling arc, so I will be forever grateful for that discussion, though on many autumn Saturdays I am reminded of the eye candy that I missed.
I will be watching often this season because there will be a rooting interest involved, although it will be easier for me than Sharp Sider – should he be watching with a group of alums, he will have to suppress any sparkle from his eye when the scoreboard result is not favorable. He is betting against his alma mater, as am I, and a ticket on USC Under 7.5 Wins makes a lot of sense, especially at the favorable + vigorish that can be found in the marketplace.
One of the salvos in yesterday’s discussion was that Utah grad transfer Stevie Tu’ikolovatu had earned a spot atop the Trojan depth chart at NT. It is a coaching staff admitting that there is an issue, with Tu’ikolovatu not the kind of player that would ordinarily be looked at for a scholarship from this program. But the defensive front is so young and so thin that some kind of veteran was needed – flanking him will be a pair of sophomores starting at DE, and the top two DE back-ups are a sophomore and freshmen.
That DL depth gets taxed right off the bat against a brutal opening cycle that puts them up against physical running teams like Alabama, Stanford and Utah, all away from campus, over the first four weeks of the season, and the schedule will turn out to be among the nation’s most difficult – all road opponents will likely be bowl teams, and there is nothing all that easy about hosting Oregon or Notre Dame. All the while Clay Helton is working through his first full season as head coach. The value key here is that USC could play extremely well and still only go 7-5, and in truth a 6-6 season, given the pieces on hand and the schedule, could even be labeled a success.
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