Point Blank – August 16
Hue Jackson gave up Pandora’s Box for this* (but maybe, just maybe…)…Tragically Hip week continues…Yes, Zach Britton is a Cy Young contender (where the hell has everybody been?)…The mood has changed quickly for the Pirates…
Plenty of football and baseball to discuss today, but first a little focus on what is behind the jukebox as well, a special tribute week to the Tragically Hip leading up to what will be one of the more iconic moments across Rock and Roll history, their farewell concert in Kingston, Ontario this Saturday night.
The back-story was set up here yesterday and a big part of the connection between Gord Downie and the audience has been his ability to paint complex murals, rather than merely taking snap shots, of the human existence. It is in the grace, subtlety and complexity of language that he has given us a way to take a closer look at ourselves, especially at the times in which we are aware that we won’t like what we see. “Wheat Kings” is one of those murals, the story of David Milgaard, a young Canadian who spent every birthday from 18 through 40 in prison for a crime he did not commit, and was later absolved of. This was from Toronto last weekend -
And all you hear are the rusty breezes
Pushing around the weathervane Jesus
Now from a sports standpoint, did an NFL coach send himself into exile…
Item: Hue Jackson accepted quite a challenge, but it may just work (eventually…)
Long-time readers will know by now that I have an affinity for Jackson, who in particular has an outstanding offensive mind for the way the modern NFL is played. As such there might be the expectation that he can do well in Cleveland, turning around a moribund Browns franchise. In truth, the first thoughts didn’t go in that direction; instead there was a wonder if Jackson wanted another crack at a HC job so badly he may have stepped into the wrong place at the wrong time. Just one season after coaching a Cincinnati offense that was loaded at the skill positions about as well as any team in the league, he now has to install a playbook for a personnel group that in recent years has rivaled the worst.
Those Cleveland struggles have not been a result of bad luck. Eight straight losing seasons have brought an average of 4.6 wins per campaign, and a case could be made that this has been the worst front office in the NFL across that span. Hence the difficulty that Jackson faces, because the Browns are a full tier below the rest of a tough division, with Baltimore and Pittsburgh having won Super Bowls over the past eight seasons, and Cincinnati a perennial playoff contender. Yet here comes the “but”…
The pieces to that offense may have become real interesting real fast. Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson are an intriguing compliment at RB because their skill sets are different, and Johnson might catch 75 passes in this offense. He has an upside that Crowell doesn’t, but if Johnson does go to the next level it brings a relative value to Crowell in being a journeyman that can carry a lunch pail. Meanwhile the WR corps is in the midst of what may turn out to be a stunning makeover. If you graded the Cleveland WRs as the NFL’s worst last year you weren’t wrong, but now there is the return of Josh Gordon, along with one of the best draft hauls ever for a team at the position, adding talented rookies Corey Coleman, Rashard Higgins, Ricardo Louis and Jordan Payton. And don’t neglect Terrelle Pryor, who is showing even more ability to make the switch to the position.
Rather quickly Jackson has been given a bevy of puzzle pieces to work with, and if time is on his side it can lead to many of the pages of his extensive playbook getting into play. Except of course that it takes a QB to make it all work, and there is a valid question as to whether Robert Griffin can be the main piece that connects it all together. Training camp reports have been a mixed bag, the problem of not just RGIII establishing that his skill set can work, but the difficulty of adjusting to a new system and a bunch of new faces around him, especially with the inexperience of those other skill players.
Let’s also address on one of the most intriguing aspects of the offensive huddle – could the rapport between Griffin and Gordon, who played together at Baylor – help each of them through the transition? I filed this away from Griffin a little while ago -
“Josh is family. We went to Baylor together. I love the guy. I don’t know what’s going to happen with him in the league or with the team, but he always knows that he has a brother in me. If the opportunity comes that he can get reinstated and play for the Browns, then I won’t be upset with that — let’s just put it that way. He is family.
The Browns may not win many more games in 2016 than last year, but the team flow may change. If Griffin can settle in the offense is capable of making a leap (#27 on the Football Outsiders charts from 2015), while the defense is likely to get gashed often in the trenches again. As such, it is possible that we may find some Totals that are a bit short, with Cleveland games bringing the potential to be much looser than in recent seasons.
Item: Zach Britton has been so damn good
With a major showdown series between the Red Sox and Orioles on tap at Camden Yards the next few days, it is proper timing to delve into a question that is beginning to pop up across the Sports Mediaverse – with no A.L. starter having the kind of season to be a clear Cy Young front-runner, could a relief pitcher, in particular Britton, be in the running for the award? In this case the only wonder is that it took this long for the conversation to start.
Britton has been more than good, he has paved the way for an Orioles team that sports the #25 ERA among the starting rotation (4.82) to be 66-51 and in first place in the A.L. East. That takes some doing. Of course there is the usual problem of relief pitchers bringing short samples, but how about if we extend it back through 2015 as well. When we do that, just how exceptional Britton has been jumps out -
2015-16 ERA*
Britton 1.32
Betances 1.80
Melancon 1.95
Kershaw 2.01
Arrieta 2.08
* - Of pitchers that threw more than 115 innings
That is a significant gap between the Baltimore lefty and the other elite. But that gap is nothing compared to what we see when a truly historic ground-ball ratio comes into focus -
2015-16 GB%*
Britton 79.6
Ziegler 68.8
Dyson 65.9
B. Anderson 65.7
Ross 61.0
* - Of pitchers that threw more than 115 innings
When you see how far removed he is from traditional Baseball realities, tit is not easy to find historical precedent for what Britton is doing. Only Andrew Miller has posted a higher SWS% over this span, and by the slimmest of margins 17.3, to Britton’s 17.2, yet the overwhelming majority of the time when contact is made it is on the ground anyway.
For some reason this story just has not caught on the way that it should have, although the numbers have been there all along for folks that bet serious money at this stuff. Britton is not just a Cy Young candidate, but if he maintains this pace may go down as having had the best back-to-back seasons by a reliever in MLB history.
In the Sights…
Don’t sleep on the Pirates. For as much of a disappointment as this season has been they are now only a game out of a Wild Card spot, and this is a group savvy enough to know that a current DL list that shows the Marlins without Stanton, Cardinals without Holliday/Adams/Diaz, and Mets without Cespedes/Cabrera, there is opportunity ahead. So with an offense that has perked up to the tune of 66 base-runners on the first four games of this road trip, a 3.5 -120 is more than a fair asking price for #963 Pittsburgh Team Total Over (10:15 Eastern). No, they have not been facing first-rate pitching, but they won’t be tonight either, and the confidence gained the last few days can carry over.
For the Pirates Andrew McCutchen needs to be the catalyst, and while this has been the worst season of his career, on this trip he already has five hits and drawn four walks, with five runs betted in. He and the others can continue that surge against the mediocrity that is Jeff Samardzija. How easy is Samardzija to define? He is at 360.2 innings over the last two seasons, and the numbers tell the tale –
W/L ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
21-21 4.67 4.28 4.30 4.28
That’s all there is, a below-average grinder who will likely get worse instead of better as the 2016 innings pile up – Samardzija is at career-lows in K/9 and SWS%, while his 13.3 HR/FB% matches a career-high.
In the Sights, Tuesday Add...
There just isn't anything in the team forms of Oakland, a lousy squad going through the motions lately, and Texas, a legit contender for the A.L. pennant, to call for the Rangers to fall from a Pinnacle opener of -157 to the current -113. So it will be #974 Texas (8:05 Eastern) in play, good up to -120, with no fears of limited prospect Andrew Triggs being anything special, especially since he does not have the stamina to eat many innings, while Lucas Harrell saw his ERA get dinged vs. Colorado in his last outing, but struck out 8 batters and only allowed 1 walk over that stint. The markets have simply taken this one too far.
U.S. Election 2016 Power Rating: Democrats -700
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