Point Blank – July 22
We’ve got a Heat Wave to sort through (cue Bruce and E-Street, for some summer listening fun)…Now the Chicago defense can add some toppings to make it a vanilla sundae, instead of just a cone…There is going to be a LOT of contact in Fenway tonight
It is going to be hot on the MLB diamonds this weekend, which of course should not be unusual for late July. But we are talking about serious heat this time, with nine games on tonight’s board taking place with a Heat Index of 90 degrees or higher (not counting Houston, where the roof will be closed), and the index calls it well over 100 when the first pitch will be thrown in Kansas City and St. Louis. Fortunately there is some savvy among the schedule-makers for Saturday, with only three afternoon games, but the extra night-to-day transitions into Sunday because of that may be more meaningful than usual.
The weather naturally means adding a few degrees to our own handicapping processes as well. So with multiple topics to cover as the betting weekend approaches it is time to plug in the Jukebox for a little background. Bruce Springsteen and the E-Street Band are having a fascinating run across Europe right now, playing just as long as ever despite their collective age, and musically perhaps as well as ever (though Bruce’s voice does show signs of age, despite his overall energy not compromising). A significant part of the fun are the “one-off covers”, their experience allowing them to try to pull just about anything off. So to set up this weekend let’s dial back to two years ago in Adelaide, Australia, the set opener in the midst of an Aussie “Heat Wave”…
On the list of things to do when there is time (though there never quite seems to be, which is why 30 years of National Geographic have still not be filed in order), I will sort and compile a collection of their live “covers”, and it will be one of the most enjoyable processes I will get to go through. But for now back to work…
Is there a general approach to extreme heat? No, over time it is actually a mixed bag. The ball carries better as it gets more hot and humid, but that does not always translate when things reach the kind of extremes that will be in play this weekend, the hitters getting a little sluggish after standing around in the field and sitting in the dugout for several hours in the conditions. And since most starting pitchers are in positive periods on their fatigue cycles, with few relievers having been over-worked since the All Star Break, the pitching staffs do have a puncher’s chance going in.
Can there be a team issue here? That may be intriguing. San Francisco and San Diego go from two of the milder summer climates across MLB right into the furnace, and the Padres just turned in a rather dismal showing in St. Louis across four hot and humid games. The Giants have been dismal since the break period, not leading at any time in an 0-5 slide.
Then there are some starting pitchers with potential stamina issues tonight. The two hottest venues will be St. Louis and Kansas City, which will tax Brandon McCarthy, who has yet to reach 80 pitches through three Dodger starts, and Yu Darvish, who had explosive stuff in Wrigley in his return from the DL, but so much so that the Cubs had trouble putting the ball in play – 90 pitches could only get him through 4.1 frames in that one.
Making a handicap line up with that will be a challenge. With McCarthy potentially a target of an early exit the Dodgers may have to extend into a bullpen that had seven relievers take part yesterday (though only Joe Blanton piled up a pitch count), but the St. Louis offense is already without Matt Carpenter, and may not have Matt Holliday tonight. And while Darvish and the Rangers could be vulnerable on the In-Running menu, the issue before first pitch is that his stuff was good at Chicago, and while the Ranger bullpen has been struggling, at least all arms are fresh.
There is something on this board where I believe the weather does help to push a concept over the top, and I will get to that in a moment…
Item: John Fox’s second season in Chicago will not be as vanilla as the first
We begin Chicago 2016 a much different way than Chicago 2015, when there was a take of “Do the Bears have any playmakers on Defense” as the lead. They didn’t, setting all-time franchise records for fewest turnovers forced (17), and fewest interceptions (8). They were #26 in yards-per-play allowed, and #29 on the Football Outsiders adjusted defensive ratings. Yet despite that, and the fact that Fox is considered a great defensive mind, I thought he did a damn good job of getting what he could from what he had. Now the defense has added some good personnel, and it may well allow Fox and DC Vic Fangio to open up a pretty deep playbook.
Going 6-10 should have been considered a positive result for the 2015 Bears, given their limitations. Fox tried to turn each game into a slow motion grinder, hoping to stay close enough to gut it out at the end, and outside a non-competitive cycle in the second half vs. Arizona, and the full game at Seattle the following week, when Jay Cutler was out (and Fox was at his crafty best against the Seahawks, somehow getting that game to halftime down only 6-0), 11 of the 14 Chicago games were decided by five points or less in regulation. The Bears managed to win a few of them, although a pessimist would not be wrong in stating that with a couple of bounces going the other way, they could have been 1-15.
The defense does not have to be vanilla this season. Akiem Hicks will step right in at DE, as will Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman at ILB (Trevathan already being familiar with Fox’s schemes from their years together in Denver), and rookies Leonard Floyd and Jonathan Bullard will find their way into the mix. There are few teams better or deeper at LB, especially with Pernell McPhee healthy again.
Does this sound similar to what was written about the Giants earlier in the week? Some of it is. Part of what held Chicago back last year was the inability of some good defensive coaches to put their playbook out there, which changes now – not only is there a second year of experience in the packages with the holdovers, but there could be as many as five new starters, all talent upgrades, on the opening Sunday (admittedly the secondary is still lower-tier).
Here is one way to tell early if Fox has confidence in the defense – how much the offense gambles. The Bears kept it vanilla on that side of the ball as well last year in part to hide the defense (#27 in SPS in neutral situations). Now with Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White healthy there is a chance to attack vertically more often, and if the fears of putting the defense in a bad setting are reduced, which they should be, it will allow for things to open up.
In the Sights…
The Red Sox have been mashing all season in Fenway, and on a hot night with a good hitter’s wind straight out, it will take a combination of a good starting pitcher, a fresh bullpen, and a quality defense to hold them in check. The Twins don’t bring any of that, so #920 Boston/Minnesota Over (7:10 Eastern) goes into pocket, with 10.5 commonly available this morning.
The Minnesota issues that have led to that dismal 35-60 were brought front-and-center here a little over two weeks ago – a bad defense has been magnified by a “pitch to contact” staff . Only the Rockies are allowing a higher BABIP, that of course with an * because of the impact of Coors, and the Twins are #28 in PADE. That has not helped Kyle Gibson on his way to 2-6/5.12, a guy that just does not miss enough bats to avoid the defense behind him. And because Tyler Duffey could not get out of the third inning last night, Michael Tonkin, Buddy Boshers and Trevor May all carry significant fatigue ratings from the Minny bullpen.
The Twins will have their own chances to score, however, with Eduardo Rodriguez still trying to develop the polish needed to be consistent at this level, and the Boston bullpen a major sore sport with Craig Kimbrell, Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara all on the DL. There is a serious question about where the pop has gone from for Rodriguez – in seven AAA starts his K/9 fell from 8.2 at that level last year to 5.7 this time, and his first seven starts with the parent club have seen a drop from the 7.3 of 2015 to just 5.5. While the quick glance might have showed effectiveness in holding the Yankees to one run over seven innings in the Bronx last weekend, he only struck out one of the 27 batters he faced, with a frightening 4.1 SWS%. On this kind of night in Fenway, pitching to contact is not likely to work for him either.
In the Sights, Friday Part II...
With 8.5 Even Money now available, and even some +105 for good shoppers, #902 Pirates/Phillies Under is now worthy of an "In the Sights..." investment. The rule of thumb all weekend will be to be patient with any Unders in these hot weather games, since the markets will tend to drive them up, and this one is now loudly ringing the value bell...
In the Sights, Saturday MLB…
I don’t think the early markets are reading Dodgers/Cardinals properly. After a long game played in sweltering heat in which the Los Angeles bullpen got pushed into a rather wretched state, the opener of -113 was supposed to drop a few pennies, not increase, and with as high as -133 in the current trading there is no much hesitation in putting #962 St. Louis in (7:15 Eastern) in pocket. This one would actually grade out as an opportunity at even money, but you should be able to do much better (+120 is an easy find this morning).
Here is the Los Angeles problem – Kenta Maeda has not finished the 7th inning in a road game all season, only managing 49 innings through nine starts away from Chavez Ravine, and there are questions about both his effectiveness, and his stamina, for this setting, with the Heat Index projected at over 100 degrees at first pitch. Maeda has only had one start in 13 days, lasting only 4.1 frames in the air conditioning of Chase Field in an uninspiring loss, the 19.4 PPI his second high of the season (the high being 22.0 three starts back). And then what? Chris Hatcher just went on the DL. Louis Coleman and J. P. Howell have pitched three days in a row, so count them out. Grant Dayton worked two innings and threw 32 pitches last night, so count him out. There have been back-to-backs from closer Kenley Jansen (35 pitches), Adam Liberatore (24) and Joe Blanton (48), which would stretch them out pretty far this evening, especially with both games having been in hot and humid conditions, plus the travel from Washington to St. Louis in between. At least Luis Avilan got saved from working last night, but that was because he had already worked Wednesday and Thursday. This will not be an easy game for Dave Roberts to sort through.
Meanwhile Mike Leake had some of the best stuff of his career in his last outing before the All Star break, with 10 strikeouts and no walks in a dominating win over Milwaukee. Then he came back with some of the best stuff of his career in the first outing after the break, 11 strikeouts and no walks in controlling the Padres. Leake has dealt to a 15.0 PPI or lower in 14 of his last 15 starts, and not having walked a batter in July he brings the form to be able to get much deeper into this game than Maeada. And in truth despite last night being such a marathon, the Cardinal bullpen is in nowhere near the dire straits of the Dodger relievers. Only Jonathan Broxton and Matt Bowman have worked back-to-back games, and it was in getting 4.2 frames from Tyler Lyons that Mike Matheny left plenty of options this evening. That makes this price point a bargain for a home team on a five-game win streak against an extremely vulnerable opponent.
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