Point Blank – July 7
On Classifying Drew Pomeranz, 2016 version (because that might be the only one that matters)…Was there indeed a more global MLB market on Wednesday (it isn't easy explaining those moves)…
Reading through short sample sizes can be among the most delicate aspects of handicapping, yet also among the most important. It is often who can throw the first good punch that wins the fight, with the oddsmakers and others in the betting market also in the ring once those samples begin to build.
It is not the size of the sample that matters here; it is who gets the proper read the quickest. I have heard academics scoff countless times at the judgments we make in the sports world after just a few events, until I explain to them that you are not rating a player or a team with a label meant to hold up for posterity; instead you are in an open competition to outmaneuver others in the same evaluation process. The fact that every professional game in the major sports carries a betting line, regardless of the experience of the combatants, is what brings opportunity. And today it begs for us to take a moment to discuss Drew Pomeranz, in particular the 2016 version.
Pomeranz will almost assuredly reach his career high for single-season innings at Chavez Ravine this evening (he only needs to get through the Dodgers in the bottom of the second for that), and could easily reach 100 frames for the first time. The key is that the 2016 Pomeranz has been quite different from the predecessor -
Previous 14-24 4.07
2016 7-7 2.65
which would ordinarily beg for some taking of the current campaign with a grain of salt. I believe it is different this time; for the Drew Pomeranz we are handicapping today, proper statistical time may well have began in spring training of this season. The rest might be best tossed out.
Item: The Pomeranz seasons with the Rockies don’t mean much of anything
After being taken with the #5 pick in the 2011 draft by Cleveland, Pomeranz had a dismal run coming up through the Colorado system, which can happen for a pitcher, the final two campaigns being 2-9/4.93 and 0-4/6.23 before that organization lost faith. His control was simply abysmal across that stint. But Pomeranz does not call Coors Field home anymore, and the pitcher that issued so many walks from 2011-13 was one that worked from the basic windup. He does not do that anymore, and is in fact an entirely different style of pitcher. Let’s start with this as the guide, then will build out more in a bit –
Pomeranz Fast-ball rate
2011 76.7%
2012 78.7%
2013 67.3%
2014 72.2%
2015 67.9%
2016 47.3%
Hence, why the early Colorado cycle of his career carries little meaning going forward.
Item: The Pomeranz seasons with the A’s only mean a little
Pomeranz began working exclusively from the stretch when Oakland gave him a try in 2014, and after opening 3-1/3.69 across eight promising AAA starts the A’s called him up. But they wanted to see what he could do out of the bullpen, and across two seasons with that organization it was 54 relief appearances vs. only 19 starts, Pomeranz working to a sharp 3.08 across that sample, with vastly improved strikeout and walk rates. While the better level that he pitched at matters going forward, which makes it easier to grade 2016 positively, again the numbers do not carry full weight because of the starting/relief roles, and the fact that he was not done tweaking his arsenal.
Item: It isn’t just that knuckle-curve in 2016
OK, now to the present. Anyone seriously following the current season is aware of the knuckle-curve of Pomeranz, a knee-buckler of a pitch that often freezes hitters – hit the strike zone with it, and there will often not be a swing offered. By working from the stretch, and by focusing on mastering that pitch, it has grown to nearly 40 percent of his repertoire. But more was needed.
Until this season Pomeranz had been a two-pitch guy: Fastball/Curve, with the latter evolving to knuckle-curve. That was not enough. There is an 11 mph gap between the pitches, which means that over time he could become an easy read – a quick gauge of the speed and the hitter knows what is coming. Not anymore.
Pomeranz has added a cut fastball to the mix, one that slots in just about perfectly between the other two pitches. That is brand new for him, with Brooks Baseball not having recorded the pitch being thrown a single time before this season. Now take a look at the 2016 splits, with the mph included, and you can see how difficult he can be to read –
Distribution Velocity
Fastball 47.3% 90.0
Cut-Fastball 12.8% 86.0
Knuckle-Curve 39.5% 79.5
That third pitch fits so well into his mix, forcing batters to take a fraction of a second longer before they can gauge what is coming, and Baseball is a game in which fractions of a second have major impacts.
There may be more to see here. How about the fact that a significant portion of all runs allowed by Pomeranz, 10 of 28, came in just two innings, early sequences when he struggled to get his mechanics working, a second-inning at Arizona and a first-inning at home vs. Miami. Since that rocky opening frame vs. the Marlins he has worked to a 2-0/1.50 tune, and over the last three starts it has been 20 strikeouts vs. only two walks allowed. Has he overcome whatever mechanical flaws led to those two particularly dismal outings? Perhaps. But there is even more, the fact that part of what caused the poor showing vs. Miami was the way that inning played out, Pomeranz having to work through an awkward seven-minute delay. Here is the recap of how that sequence -
With two on and no one out, Christian Yelich hit a roller up the first baseline that was fielded by Wil Myers. As the Padres' first baseman went to tag Yelich, the Marlin attempted to dive around Myers but was called out by first base umpire Cory Blaser for diving outside the baseline.
Miami manager Don Mattingly came out to argue Yelich was safe, that he hadn't been outside the basepath when he dodged Myers' tag. Even after the umpires conferred twice and didn't change the call, Mattingly asked for a video appeal. As the call was being upheld, Padres manager Andy Green came onto the field to discuss the situation.
"It's hard for me to understand how Yelich could have been out of the basepath when all his marks were inside the 45-foot box," said Mattingly, who played the game under protest.
When play finally resumed, Pomeranz walked Marcell Ozuna on four pitches to load the bases ahead of striking out Giancarlo Stanton for the second out.
Chris Johnson then hit a sharp grounder to the right of Padres shortstop Alexei Ramirez, who made the stop in the hole but had no play as Hechavarria scored the game's first run.
"We had an opportunity to get out of that inning with a great play," Green (SD manager Andy) said. "We didn't make it."
The circumstances of that inning may have penalized the Pomeranz statistical bottom line more than it should have.
Item: And so…
We just might be able to believe the 2.65 Pomeranz ERA is his proper range. FIP is more cautious at 3.20 and SIERA reads 3.72, largely because of a 3.7 BB/9 and a seemingly fortunate .249 BABIP. But if his control is indeed getting better the walks are less of an issue, and a case can be made that Pomeranz could become a BABIP outlier because of his unique style. I am not completely comfortable with stats like Line-Drive Rate, because there is human judgment involved, but of the 97 qualifying pitchers this season he is #2 in that key category, showing how hard it is to square pitches up against him. Hence, softer contact makes for easier defensive plays, and over the last three seasons, since he started working fro the stretch, it is a .255 BABIP, with only Marco Estrada, Chris Young and Aaron Sanchez rating better.
I am still a bit late in giving Pomeranz this stamp, because of that unique style – was he benefitted from a “First Look” edge against hitters that might go away the second time around? That comes front-and-center in Los Angeles tonight, but note that it has not been any kind of plus for the hitters at all so far, Pomeranz dealing to a 0.90 allowance over 20 innings of his first three second-looks, with more than twice as many strikeouts (17) as hits allowed (8) in those games. The bottom line may be that if he is finding the strike zone with that knuckle-curve, then there just is not much hitters can do, whether they expect it to be coming or not.
About Last Night…
Wednesday was one of the more unique July betting days I have ever seen across the MLB markets. Ordinarily by this time of the season there is some precision in the odds making process, the guys making the numbers knowing both the teams, and the bettors, pretty damn well. Yet just a few moments after I finished sending out yesterday’s missive, pegging the Phillies “In the Sights…” because Pinnacle and a few other shops had dropped to -140, a surge began to that game that did not stop until the closer of -178 at Pinny, and -180 elsewhere. That was just the beginning –
Pinnacle Open/Close
NY Mets -180 -230
Washington -170 -225
San Francisco -225 -188
NY Yankees -130 -165
LA Dodgers -140 -107
Add the Phillies to the chart and that is a half dozen games in one day in which the line moved significantly, with the Yankees becoming part of yesterday’s thread discussion – Pinny was as high as -181 shortly before first pitch, before there was finally some buyback.
It is buyback that becomes the handicapping issue. By this stage the guys setting the numbers have had an enormous amount of data to sort through, and they are good enough to not make many mistakes. The mistakes they do make will not be egregious. That means the shrewd handicapper should be taking a look at the other side of these moves when they have gone a little too far, respecting the opinions of those that first set the market.
The big question for Wednesday – why the hell did this happen – remains unanswered for now. One industry insider speculated that with Wales/Portugal in the EuroCup and the Wimbledon quarter-finals drawing so much global attention, perhaps the MLB board became something to play around with from folks that otherwise would ignore the sport. That makes for interesting conversation over a hoppy summer IPA or two, but would be difficult to track down. But on a day on which Germany/France will likely write a much bigger handle than Wales/Portugal, might the baseball markets be active again? It is in the back of the mind as the trading day begins.
In the Sights…
It looks like I will have to wait the markets out today, and if there is something like the Wednesday level of activity a bargain may show. The “wish list” was San Diego +1.5 -150, which is a long way away after some early market play to the Padres this morning, so for now it is time to sit back and wait and see if something of value opens up.
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