Point Blank – May 30
Do the Thunder have a ripple of a chance (they didn’t lose Game 6 because of Hero Ball, they lost because of Lousy Hero Ball)…Why I’m not playing against Matt Harvey today, and why I am playing on the Cubs…
And so here we are in the Western Conference, a Game 7 that brings us compelling human drama, to go along with a pair of teams blessed with unique basketball skills. In terms of projecting the outcome there is also no way to separate the two elements, so that means plenty of work to do today.
First let’s begin as we properly should, with a solute to all those that have served our country, and have helped create the remarkable freedoms that we have. For those of us that have this day beginning with an afternoon of MLB dice rolling across those pastoral green diamonds, we are already lucky win or lose, and debts of gratitude are owed that can never be fully paid. And yes, for the umpteenth time the DVR is set to record “Kelly’s Heroes” on TCM this evening (10:45 Eastern/7:45 Pacific).
But now back to the mounting tension before the Thunder/Warriors tip it off at Oracle Arena, and this time it calls for one of the favorite buttons of all on the Classic Jukebox to be pressed, in best setting the proper tone for this particular Game 7. Despite the brightness of the stars shining on this horizon it may not come down to energy or individual brilliance, but instead which team can play with the calm and composure under pressure that is needed to make good decisions. So as the tribute to the Bay Area music scene continues (yes, musically the Warriors would be a much better fit for the Finals because we haven’t even gotten to Carlos Santana yet), it is the Grateful Dead creating the handicapping mind-set for the day, "Ripple" live from Radio City Music Hall in 1980, a sublime pacing of the words and intonations; vocal punctuation as an elegant art form…
You who choose to lead must follow
But if you fall you fall alone.
The Ballad of Russell and Kevin continues…
Thunder/Warriors #7 – Did OKC lose Game 6 because of Hero Ball, or because it was Lousy Hero Ball (the distinction really matters)
Those of you that have been reading along faithfully through this series know where this is going to begin. The prelude to Game 6 on Friday focused directly on Durant/Westbrook, and whether they would play within the team framework that had been so successful in Games 3-4, or resort to their forays into individual heroics that have characterized them in the past. There was already evidence of that drifting in Game 5, and if Golden State does go on to win the series I will remember back to a particular point in time in which the turn took place.
After falling down by eight at halftime last Thursday the Thunder put on a strong charge to begin the 3rd quarter, actually going to the lead, but Westbrook got caught up in the adrenaline rush of that surge and resorted to his old ways at a truly critical juncture – go back and re-watch those turnovers at 7:03 and 5:27, and you see badly forced plays, each turnover just four seconds into the shot clock as he tried to attack one-on-more-than-one without any other OKC players in the picture. Those were huge moments lost, a chance to potentially seize the series frittered away. And it set the stage for Saturday.
Even though the Thunder had command of the scoreboard most of the way, the warning signs were there early. Durant took 10 shots in 9:48 of the 1st quarter, only making two. By halftime he and Westbrook had taken 31 of the 50 OKC shots, only making 11. They had the lead, they had the crowd and they had the physical energy. But they did not have the poise, and instead of delivering a knockout punch it was only 53-48. This dazed look from Durant from Game 5 had not changed.
Then the pressure began to build in the latter stages and the Warriors, who predictably stayed within themselves and never lost focus on who they are, began to make plays. Klay Thompson was brilliant on offense in the fourth quarter, out-scoring the Thunder by himself (19-18). Andre Iguodala’s defense was sublime, having an impact across the final stanza in which the statistics struggle to bring a proper measure – he only took two shots, with one assist and no rebounds over 11:05. But this is one time in which +/- does best tell the tale, a +14 over that stretch in which he came up with three steals, guarding either Durant or Westbrook on just about every possession. Steph Curry was Steph Curry, with 31 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists and two steals to help set aside notions of him only being “70 percent”. Draymond Green was Draymond Green, not doing anything necessarily pretty, but battling his way to 12 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and three steals, and the corresponding +16 across his 42:40. The Warriors were who they are. Yet it was still just barely enough – they did not go to the lead until there was 1:35 left.
Item: What Lousy Hero Ball looks like
As brilliant as Thompson/Iguodala were in the final stanza, it was every bit as much a case of OKC failing as GS succeeding. And you can put it on the Durant/Westbrook shoulders, any notions of team ball having drifted away. They took 14 of the 19 Thunder FG attempts in the 4th quarter, only making three. The team did not have an assist over that time, while committing six turnovers. And when it mattered most, they were at their worst -
OKC Final 13 Possessions:
--One trip with more than one pass
--One basket (Andre Roberson, after an offensive rebound)
--Durant/Westbrook went 0-4 shooting with six turnovers
--Last six possessions were five turnovers and a missed Durant 3-pointer
That was a monument to basketball ugliness; the question now is whether that is the stone to be the Thunder epitaph to the series, the season, and perhaps an era, should Durant's next uniform be a different one.
Item: But now for the *
This is where Game 7 gets a bit tricky. The Warriors can be counted on to play within themselves, and do what they have been doing across the past two seasons. It will put them in a position to win. OKC will be a wild card. I half-joked in the weekend thread that Billy Donovan now finds himself in the role of Dorothy, needing a trip to Oz before tonight in order to find missing organs for the Scarecrow and the Tin Man. The range of possibilities from the Thunder is certainly a wide one.
But here is what lingers in the back of the head – OKC could have won despite playing Hero Ball on Saturday night. The Thunder did not lose because Durant/Westbrook tried to be Heroes, they lost because they were lousy in the roles. They combined to shoot just 20-58 and turned the ball over eight times. With 2:00 remaining they had shot 20-57, and yet were still in the lead in the game. That matters. The takeaway should not be that OKC lost just because those two stars tried to do too much; it should be that the stars also played poorly.
Hence why the Monday call is a difficult one. Durant/Westbrook could once again lose team focus and fritter away opportunities, the sort of thing that gets you into peril against this class of competition. But they are also so damn talented that their mental mistakes could be overcome via those physical gifts. They could play quite selfishly, again throwing up 58 shots, but what if they make more of them this time? Might their lack of maturity in handling the role of the hunted now turn into a more purposeful aggression now that they are the hunter again?
It will be fascinating to watch, and that is what I will be doing closely in the early stages, this one again setting up more In-Running prospects than leading to anything from the pocket pre-tipoff. I do have some against-the-grain Over notions, the markets doing what they usually do for a Game 7 and shrinking the Total, with 217.5 even showing in a few spots now. This will not be conservative basketball, with each team knowing their best chance for offensive success is to beat the opposing defense from setting up, and if it is close late we could see quite a scramble, as was the case in Game 5 (Game 6 had the prospects of a scramble, except the Thunder couldn’t even get a shot off on their last four trips). But even any potential ticket in that direction will have to wait for the flow to begin, an Over investment requiring a close game in order to bring an edge. Fortunately, on Memorial Day 2016, we don’t have to declare before tipoff.
Item: And Matt Harvey takes the mound again
Playing against Harvey has been an automatic of late, but I am not going to be there today. He still does not show any signs of turning his game, and it is most rare when a top-grade talent has back-to-back starts over which both his home runs and his walks allowed exceeded his strikeouts. But the markets are catching up, and in truth I don’t want any part of the White Sox here, after what may have been a crushing weekend to their psyche.
Chicago headed to Kansas City with a chance to make a statement, and the door was left open with the Royals being so short-handed. The ChiSox were on the verge of taking that door off of its hinges, leading 5-1 in the bottom of the 6th inning on Friday, 7-1 in the bottom of the 9th on Saturday, and 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th yesterday. They lost all three games. Let’s credit the folks at Sports Insights for this -
Sports Insights @SportsInsights
Royals live moneyline comebacks this weekend against the White Sox:
Friday: +850
Saturday: +1661
Sunday: +1000
This is anything but ideal timing to be backing the White Sox, especially at this price point. But a little later in the day I will be in play…
In the Sights, MLB…
I don’t get the market surge to the Dodgers this morning, which has lowered the tariff to where there is now -123 available on the Cubs. So #927 Chicago (5:05 Eastern, note the time change) goes into pocket. Consider it good up to -135. It works on overall baseball principles, but in particular takes us back to one of the preludes to the season that was written here multiple times – the bottom of the 7th and 8th innings at Wrigley this season are going to be a major danger zone for opposing teams. For Los Angeles, that is a particularly sore spot.
The Cubs are better offensively than the Dodgers, a .261/.359/.431 vs. .243/.316/.383 comparison. The Cubs are better defensively. Jason Hammel is better than Alex Wood. And there is a particular aspect of Wood today that sets up the biggest edge of all – the Dodgers middle relief corps will have to play a role. Wood is only averaging 5.2 innings per start, and has not worked since May 21 because of a triceps injury. Even if he brings his best stuff I would expect him to max out at six innings, and that forces Dave Roberts to mix and match from there, a vulnerability of his team going into a major Cubs strength.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through May 29): 15
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