Point Blank – May 6
For the Trail Blazers, you do what Keeps You Runnin'…Doesn’t an NBA defense actually want their opponents to take more than half of their shots beyond the arc…On the Thunder, as they evolve into also being the Adams Family…Doesn’t the NBA bother to count Canadian television ratings, eh?
The venue shifts begin across the NBA playoff series, bringing a whole set of plot twists as well, including some difficult reads for the oddsmakers and the betting markets. That means time to put those matchups front-and-center with the usual focus of “The Game Inside the Game”, and this time we can also connect a wager coming out of pocket with something on hand in the jukebox.
Many times a team might feel the need to back off against a superior opponent, and alter their game plan or their tempo in order to have a better chance to compete. I believe it is a little different for Portland in Game 3 at home on Saturday night, so let’s use some classic Doobie Brothers, live from 1979, for Friday’s background – if the Trail Blazers are to win on Saturday it really does come down to what “Keeps You Runnin’”, a theme I will get back to in a moment -
Cavaliers/Hawks #3 – If your opponent takes 45 of 87 shots from beyond the arc in a playoff game, you weren’t entirely wrong
Much of the focus on this series so far has been two-fold – 1. Can what has been an extremely good Atlanta defense in terms of classic fundamental basketball get the job done, when the task is more about defending talent than tactics; and 2. Having gone a long time without beating the Cavaliers, how damaged is their psyche in this matchup?
So far the answers have been rather declarative. Since the beginning of their playoff series last May it is now Cleveland 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in these head-to-heads, the three meetings over the last month decided by 61 points (albeit all in Cleveland). So first we begin with the hit to the collective ego of the Hawks – they have trailed by at least 17 points in each of those last three encounters, and that can indeed do something to the collective team psyche.
But basketball is also a game of pendulums, and when any particular aspect runs too far in one direction the necessary course will be the arc reversing Game 2 in this series brought just such a pendulum, arguably the most productive offensive first half in playoff history (1.56 PPP by the Cavs), and the most made 3-pointers in a game at any point of the NBA calendar. Some of this is a genuine attribute of the Atlanta defensive scheme, which focuses on providing help when a teammate has been beaten off the dribble, often at the expense of leaving a shooter open. Mike Budenholzer is more than aware of this –
“In transition we are not doing a good enough job. We need greater urgency and greater understanding in getting to all of their shooters. I think it starts there. Then in the half court, they are in the paint a lot. When you collapse and people help, they are making the extra pass and making shots. Then the third piece, several of them, obviously, J.R. Smith are hitting extremely difficult 3’s on top of those first two things.”
Some of that Wednesday shooting, especially from Smith, was a carnival night of some really tough attempts being knocked down. For many coaches, if they were told that the opposition would take 45 of 87 shot attempts beyond the arc, they would chalk it up as a good thing. It makes stepping in before tipoff difficult this evening because there are those “doubts about the doubts” – I do not want to believe in the Hawks if they do not believe in themselves. But if they stay the course and the Cavaliers get too reliant on long-range shots on the road, it would not be a shock if that Game 2 Cleveland success rate took a major regression.
Spurs/Thunder #3 – The Thunder are also the Adams Family now
For all of the debate about the officiating in those final 13.5 seconds at San Antonio on Monday night, what got lost in the shuffle was one of the greatest individual defensive plays in NBA history. No hyperbole there. Steven Adams found himself fending off the charge of the Spurs largely by himself, Davy Crockett being vastly out-number at the Alamo, and over those final few ticks Adams -
- Would not allow Patty Mills to finish at the basket, instead forcing him to pass the ball to Manu Ginobli;
- Reacted quickly enough to get his footwork in place to be ready to leap and block a Ginobli shot from the paint, so he gave the ball back up to Mills in the corner, instead of finishing in the lane;
- Adams then again reacted quickly enough, and had the athleticism, to not only get out towards Mills to impact that final shot, but went at it so hard that he had to turn around as one of the crowd to see whether or not it want in, and then the ensuing scramble for the rebound.
Dion Waiters, who was mostly a bystander on the play, had the proper appreciation - "Man, that was a helluva job. He covered the whole half of the court, got back, was able to get all the way into the paint and get back out to contest the shot."
Yet none of that makes it into the box score, but here is what does – 12 points and 17 rebounds. It is the hustle and drive of Adams that becomes a major wild card now in this series – this is no longer merely a “soft” offensive team keyed by that Durant/Westbrook duo. This has been developing all season, the intensity of Adams a big part of why the Thunder rebounded at a historic level, and it is a missing piece to the previous puzzle that puts them legitimately in the hunt.
There is one thing that Adams has not had an answer for – the ability to guard away from the basket and take LaMarcus Aldridge out of his splendid rhythm (79 points on 33-54 shooting), and Billy Donovan may not have the personnel or tactics to keep Aldridge out of his comfort zone. There is also the matter that even in winning Game 2 the Thunder had more turnovers than assists. But winning ugly is not something this team has been able to do in the past, so getting a breakthrough in that category will be significant for their collective team psyche.
Raptors/Heat #3 – The setting by the NBA is ridiculous, but one aspect for the pocket may be sublime
It is an absurdity in the continuing running story of NBA playoff malfeasance that this game is being played so shortly off of Thursday night, after two of the other three Second Round series were given added time off for the change of venues, and Atlanta/Cleveland got extra time before their series started. Why not at least push Golden State/Portland into the afternoon, then this one at night, for better basketball? No, that is not going to happen, with the Warriors, even Curry-less, being the ratings bonanza that they are. So this is what we have, and while the fan can bemoan the integrity of the setting, the handicapper can take advantage.
This set-up got exacerbated by the teams once again going into overtime, which makes the turnaround even more difficult. And since one of the themes I presented on Thursday was fatigue playing a role in Kyle Lowry’s performance, his 46:53 from Game 2 cannot help but take a further toll. His aggressiveness was good in that win but his shot remains such a problem that it may not get solved until his season ends – just 7-22 overall, 1-7 from 3-point range, and only 3-6 FTs. Meanwhile DeMar DeRozan, who logged 41:52, was only 9-24. There is no particular reason to believe that either breaks out with either the change in venue, or the short turn-around time, hurting more than helping.
For Miami it was mostly about a lack of concentration on offense, the Heat turning the ball over 21 times. I credit some of that to the defensive intensity of the Raptors, who were given credit for 15 steals (some simply because the Miami players threw the ball to them), but a lot was simply rushed offense, and note just how many of those miscues turned into Toronto points in transition – a full 25 percent of their game output. That is something that can be corrected tactically, and while there are age issues from Wade, Johnson and Deng in the short recoup period, they will be more familiar with their Friday night beds, and Saturday morning routines, than the Raptors. I believe there is something we can do here, which will be on the way a bit down below…
Warriors/Trail Blazers #3 – Since Terry Stotts has fresh horses on Derby Day, he should let them run (and I think he will)
There were two questions presented here about the rotation strategy of Stotts in Portland’s Game 1 loss at Golden State – did his overuse of Lillard/McCollum run the risk of them gassing out in Game 2, both playing more than 40 minutes despite the fat that they were already battling fatigue at the opening tipoff; or 2. Did leaving them in so long in the opener help stabilize the team and develop some confidence. As it turns out, the answer was affirmative to each.
The Trail Blazers indeed played better on Tuesday night, and had a legitimate chance to win the game. Give Stotts credit for that. But fatigue also left them wide open for a knockout punch, and if you leave yourself open against a champion, you will almost inevitably have to withstand that punch. Hence, Stotts running their legs out in Game 1 was part of what created Tuesday’s 34-12 blitz in the fourth quarter, in that regard his management of Lillard/McConnell in the opener was among the worst since Dick Sadler had George Foreman keep throwing all of those wasted punches in Zaire over 40 years ago -
But overall I like Stotts, and let’s use some of the best of his stuff to make a case for Saturday value. His key guard tandem faces some issues in going up against the size of Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston, the best counter being to use quickness to take them off the dribble instead. Another key is also to beat the Warrior defense down the court before they can set up, and while some coaches are loathe to get into an uptempo affair against an opponent that is brilliant at it, here is something that Stotts said before Game 2 that I filed away -
"I've always believed that you cannot afford to not try and get easy points. I think it's difficult to slow a team down because they're still going to run. We have a young team and I think we play better in flow and not necessarily (having) to grind it out in a half court game. If you want to slow them down by slowing down your offense, I don't think that caters to what we do well."
The Trail Blazers pushed it on Tuesday, to the tune of 19 fast break points, and they were sitting on 87 at the end of three quarters. They just didn’t have the legs for the final furlong. Now those legs will be there, off of the ample down-time the NBA has presented, and there is something I believe we can do with it, which I will get to in a moment.
About Last Night…
One of the key themes in turning a Rockies/Giants Over ticket on Thursday was how that 1-0/1.69 opening to the season by Christopher Rusin did not have to be believed. If his stuff was that legit, he would have been starting much earlier. But make sure you don’t neglect what could be a damaging blow to his psyche from that Colorado rout.
Many times there is a focus on tough losses, and how players and teams have to react from them, and there will be a continued post-mortems on the psyche of pitchers across the MLB summer, that part of their game being so crucial. In this instance, Rusin not winning may mean even more than had he lost; imagine taking the mound in the bottom of the fifth inning with a 17-3 lead, and not even being able to get the three outs necessary from that point to get a ‘W’. Rusin simply did not have much, and was removed before finishing the fifth inning because Walt Weiss really did not have a choice, even with that comfortable lead – the Giants were batting .542 against his starter.
Rusin may not be in the rotation the next time through, but if he is there should be some serious questions about his confidence level.
In the Sights…
Let’s get a couple of notions in play here, and many of the details have already been covered above. I see #827 Miami Series still available at -130 this morning, after a soft opener got posted, and that is worth taking advantage of (make -140 the limit). If you are tied on the road at the end of regulation twice it means that you are better than your opponent, and that has been the case throughout the playoffs – the Heat are +63 in point differential through nine playoff games, despite five being on the road, while the Raptors are sitting at -11 through nine games, despite six being at home, and their first round opponent being weaker than Miami’s. In particular I believe the quick turnaround for game 3 favors the Heat, who figure to close at around -5.5, and by getting that in in pocket it creates some maneuverability for the series ticket.
I will also get in play with #524 Portland Team Total Over (8:35 Eastern) for Saturday night, with 104 the current going rate. Instead of the Trail Blazers slowing the Warriors down and trying to make them grind I expect to see a wide open and aggressive approach – the best way for them to score is to beat the Golden State defense down the court, something they did well for three quarters on the road in Game 2, and with both fresher legs, and a passionate crowd, to keep the spark going, I believe they have four quarters of energy here. I also expect the game to be close, which brings the potential bonus of some scramble points down the stretch.
In the Sights, Saturday MLB…
There is too much price involved behind Clayton Kershaw today – there is nothing special about the team behind him, but the market emphasis on big-name starters is forcing as high as -180 out there in the early trading. That makes #930 Toronto (1:05 Eastern) a fit, and in this instance you only have to lay out about .6 of a unit to get a full game’s return. Consider +155 or better the value point.
Knuckleballers will always bring a degree of unpredictability, but I don’t mind an under-value R.A. Dickey here. The early start does not help the Dodger hitters to settle in (10:05 AM on their body clocks), nor does the fact that their roster has precious little experience against him. And while that 1-3/5.73 in the pitching forms has helped to build out this price, note that Dickey has been a tick better than last season in terms of K/9, GB% and SWS%. The issue to this point has been an unfavorable .333 BABIP, which is out of character for him – over the last five seasons he has never charted higher than .278 (knuckleballers do well in the category because of the number of pop-ups they induce, part of why ERA is a better long-term predictor than FIP for them). So consider Dickey to be his normal self. As is Kershaw, of course, but the Blue Jays have that Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion trio that will relish the challenge, making them a solid value at the current market offering.
In the Sights, Sunday NBA…
There were some allusions to this already in the follow-up thread so let’s get it posted - I believe there is more than fair value to go to market with #525 Cleveland (3:35 Eastern) now, the -5 unlikely to hold up. The current marketplace is one fully aware of how poorly 0-3 home teams have fared in Game 4, with a sound logic in play – often the teams know to a man that they are beaten, and with a victory only meaning having to pack up and head to the road for the likely elimination in Game 5, they often simply call it a season. Meanwhile a favorite that knows there is still a lot of work ahead relishes the opportunity to create a rest cycle by closing out, and that will certainly not be lost on LeBron & Company.
Here is what makes it truly difficult for Atlanta – the Hawks gave it their best shot on Friday, leading by as many as 11 points, and knocking down 16-34 from 3-point range. If that happens, and a team still loses in double figures, it is awfully difficult to get back up off the mats. This is a matchup that simply does not work for Mike Budenholzer’s team, now at 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS head-to-head since that start of that playoff series last May, and that 55-28 drubbing on the boards in Game 3 should be taken as a sign that while the Cavaliers are fresh and hungry, the key cogs not having logged major minutes during the regular season, the Hawks are running low on energy, and now face a difficult time finding the motivation to reach back for anything extra.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB...
I can be short and sweet here, but when it is Will Flores and Eric Campbell, instead of Neil Walker and David Wright, and the markets haven't budged, I will dare the Mets to build a margin and make it #964 San Diego Run Line(4:40 Eastern), with as low as +1.5 -125 out there (I would consider it good to -140). Not only is it a punchless Met lineup (half of the starters batting .225 or less, and not much power), but Matt Harvey's struggles were documented earlier in the week here. Mets will be hard-pressed to win this game, much less get there by two or more runs.
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