Point Blank – February 16
After Toronto, do we take the money and run…Have the bright lights caused Texas A&M to squint…Rebels with a cause, at College Station...
Since the focus was on the college hardwoods in Monday’s weekend recap I thought I would save the NBA All Star game for today, because there is a genuine question as to whether the game will ever be worth talking about again in the future…
Item: After Toronto, do we take the money and run?
In the Friday column I went into great detail about why I though the West was a solid opportunity in the NBA showcase, the talent not being distributed all that well between those rosters. But while they rolled by 23 points, the process through which it happened was an alarming one. This time around it became the Pro Bowl, a contest that was so lacking in integrity that it sounds an alarm in terms of studying the game going forward.
There was little that could be tagged as legitimate competition. The teams combined for 139 3-point attempts and there were 57 dunks, which are rather mind-blowing numbers. That means a 3-point attempt every 20.7 seconds, and just think about where the scoreboard might have gone had they shot better – it was only 36.7 percent, despite the overwhelming majority of those looks being wide open.
Kobe Bryant shot a pair of free throws with 8:53 remaining in the first quarter. Those were the only FTs by a member of the West starting lineup the entire game; no starter from the East ever got to the line. If the players are not even guarding closely enough for the occasional foul to be called, it is telling us something. The reason I bring it up is because it has not always been this way. Whereas the NFL Pro Bowl has gone from once being a competitive AFC vs. NFC matchup to a formless exhibition that does not even resemble football, the NBA All Star game had certainly brought its entertaining moments for the fans, but also settled down into competitive games – prior to Sunday the previous six had all been decided by eight points or less.
What was alarming to the folks behind the counter was the action on the Total, which rose nine full points from the settled-out opener, yet there was never much doubt – even a closer that had reached a seeming stratosphere was toppled with 6:09 remaining. To put it into perspective, compare this year’s result to the recent history -
Total Score
2011 272 291
2012 283.5 301
2013 293.5 281
2014 290.5 318
2015 301.5 321
2016 320.5 369
That is rather alarming in terms of going forward. There were those in the market that seemingly had access to the way that it was going to be played, and fired away, getting good return on their investment. A straight ticket to the West also played well, but it just might be the last ticket I get in play for this game for a while.
The irony may be that in terms of trying to put on too much of a show, the basketball may have backfired as well – a couple of alley-oop dunks can be interesting; after dozens take place, not so much.
Item: Have the bright lights caused Texas A&M to squint?
As the focus from early last week continues on, looking at various teams that will either pick their games up or fade down the stretch, there is a classic story of how a team’s basketball psyche can get turned inside out going on with Billy Kennedy and his Aggies.
AP College Basketball Poll
January 25 - Texas A&M #5
February 1 - Texas A&M #8
February 8 - Texas A&M #15
February 15 - Texas A&M Out
That is quite a drop, and when that happens a team can indeed have their confidence shaken by negative scoreboard results. The question is whether some false perceptions set the Aggies up for a fall, and it makes for a good case study.
Ordinarily when a team reaches a lofty spot in the polls it means that they are pretty damn good, and that if something goes wrong they can correct it, because you do not get that high without having a strong legacy. This is where Texas A&M may be a bit different. I learned the hard way when I backed the Aggies on this page vs. South Carolina a couple of weeks ago, believing in their floor game enough to call for a bounce-back after they were whipped at Vanderbilt (and also calling for the Gamecocks to miss shots on the road, which they have done for most of the season). But instead of a bounce-back it was a nervous and uncertain A&M team that saw a five-point lead midway through the second half turn into a defeat, failing to take charge when the game was in their hands, in front of a near-sellout home crowd.
Now it has been five straight SEC losses, the Aggies going from 7-0 in league play and that #5 rating to 7-5 now and not even being guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance (fortunately for them their remaining road games are at Missouri and Auburn, the two easiest trips in this SEC season). Could this cycle be the result of simply not having that winning legacy that a team that gets so high in the polls would usually have?
When the current seniors were freshmen they lost to Missouri in the second round of the SEC tournament, and packed up their uniforms. Two seasons ago A&M lost to Missouri in the first round of the SEC tournament, and then fell at Illinois State in the second round of the CBI. Last March they were upset 66-59 despite being -9 vs. Auburn in the first round of the league tourney, and then got rudely dismissed in the second round of the NIT, when Louisiana Tech came to College Station and won by a dozen.
Despite having a veteran lineup with seniors Alex Caruso, Danuel House, Jalen Jones and graduate Anthony Collins, where is the legacy of winning into the post-season? Caruso and House have been Aggies through their careers, and have none. Jones transferred in from SMU, where the Mustangs went 28-36 in his two seasons, and lost in the first round of their conference tournament in each. Collins graduated from South Florida, where the Bulls went 27-44 in games that he had played, never getting beyond the first round of the conference tournament.
You can see the problem. This is a well-coached team of players that fit pretty well together, but outside of freshman Tyler Davis NBA scouts are not paying much attention. They were never supposed to have been #5 in the nation, but the fact that this season laid out the way that it did put them there, which meant that a group that was unaccustomed to that kind of spotlight was given an additional pressure to deal with. Instead of being happy to sit at 7-5 in the SEC and feeling pretty good about themselves, with non-league wins over Baylor, Gonzaga and Texas that were good for the resume, could there instead be a crisis of confidence settling in? This is when a team with a successful past could reach back to those winning moments, and grab some confidence from them, but as a group these Aggies simply do not have that legacy. And that is a way of setting something up for this evening…
In the Sights…
The Texas A&M example above is a good long-term study of how fragile the psyche of young athletes can be, both individually and collectively, and today’s timing also gets us to the window with #545 Mississippi (9:00 Eastern), with +9.5 easy to find this morning, and even some indications that a +10 may show.
Texas A&M is 18-7 overall and 7-5 in the SEC. Ole Miss is 16-9 and 6-6. But having arrived at similar destinations in the standings, the current energy levels could be much different. While the Aggies may perceive themselves as reeling, the Rebels can bring a fresh purpose and a belief in momentum – they managed to hold their own while Sebastian Saiz was injured (3-3, with each of the losses by six points or less, including one that went to Overtime; his presence might have turned any of the defeats), but since his return took Florida to the final possessions before falling 77-72 as +9 on the road, and they may have played their best half of basketball in handling Arkansas 76-60 on Saturday, a 41-23 rout after intermission.
So tonight’s matchup brings two teams with similar resumes, yet the underdog bringing a different level of confidence and energy than the favorite. There is also a subtle handicapping factor in play that I believe matters, though will often get missed in the marketplace – Ole Miss handled Arkansas by 16 despite key cog Stefan Moody going 4-17 from the field, missing all seven 3-point attempts, and turning the ball over seven times, while Saiz contributed only 13 minutes before fouling out. Despite getting awful games from their two key cogs, the Rebels still managed to turn in their best 20 minutes of the season in the second half. That is the sort of thing they can build off of, and I see Mississippi being in the hunt to win outright tonight, with the home team lacking the swagger to build a margin into double figures, and also not shooting FTs well enough (#299 in the nation) to extend a margin if it is close late.
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