Point Blank – November 25 & 26
Pre-Thanksgiving: Preparing the Stuffing…On Power Ratings, and Understanding Iowa…Shoot, Swish, Aloha…
Ah yes, Thanksgiving. A time to sit around with friends and family, reminisce, eat too much and take a siesta later in the day because of caloric overload. And I can remember when it actually was that way, back in simpler times. But in this particular endeavor there is not much time for that – Thanksgiving marks the return of one of the most hectic cycles of the sports calendar, and one that can be among the most profitable if you position yourself well. Today we will work on how to do that.
Here is the Thanksgiving reality for this era. Beginning this morning, when UW-Milwaukee/Central Michigan and Washington/Gonzaga tip off at 9 AM Pacific, and all the way through Sunday night, there are wall-to-will basketball games for five straight days. Football goes wall-to-wall for four straight, starting with Eagles/Lions tomorrow. So much for relaxation.
So how do you best sort through? Perhaps at no time is patience more important, and in particular in terms of addressing your own cycle. The process of both handicapping these games, and sorting through the results to develop power ratings on the teams going forward, is a daunting one, and can easily overwhelm. So make a plan, and stick to it. If football has been your prime focus all season, push the baskets aside and do not overlap too much. If you do love the early NCAA hoops season, look at the schedules and determine how many of these tournaments you can realistically absorb. If you focus on a couple, and then zero in to watch the results, you will have a much better feel than trying to do the entire board. And in terms of game reviews, this is one time you can allow yourself to get a little lazy – for college football teams playing their last game until next season, or a bowl, you have time to do the autopsies later. For most college basketball teams the schedule slows after these tourneys, so you can catch up there as well.
Eating too much on Thanksgiving is fine. Betting too much isn’t.
On Power Ratings, and the Iowa Hawkeyes
Although there were a few things that came out of the Playoff Committee ratings on Tuesday that were a surprise, moving Iowa up to #4 was not one of them – that is pretty much the way that it is going to be under the traditional structures that are in place. Should the Hawkeyes win their next two games, they are guaranteed to get one of the four playoff slots, and I actually have no qualm with that, despite the fact that on my own ratings, Iowa is tied for #17.
Each week R. J. Bell has been doing a compilation of power ratings from myself, Bruce Marshall (senior editor of The Gold Sheet) and the guys on the other side of the counter at Cantor Gaming. Those are then sorted through, and you can find the results here. It leads to some fascinating back-and-forth across the social media universe, of course, including some questioning how it is even possible to have an unbeaten team ranked #4 by The Committee sitting down at #17, so that makes this an opportunity to make Iowa a case study.
First, here are the teams I consider better than the Hawkeyes right now, alphabetically – Alabama, Baylor, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford and TCU.
Second, note that there is nothing outlandish about having them #17, that is close to where you will find them from many sources that focus in on college football year-in and year-out. I decided to do a comparison with the Jeff Sagarin Ratings this week, and it just so happens that Iowa sits #17 there as well. If you check the current issue of The Gold Sheet, they would have 20 teams rated above Iowa.
So how can this be? Time did not begin in August of 2015. Iowa, like all other teams, is made up of coaches and players that have been around for a while. One of the things that I focus on, and it has been showcased in these columns often, is the cycle of the “Fifth Year Seniors”. It gives you a good feel for just where a program has been, and what the abilities of the current team are. For Iowa it also provides some significant tracking because of the stability - Kirk Ferentz has been the HC since 1999, Greg Davis the OC the last four seasons, and DC Phil Parker has been on the staff since 1999.
So let’s do some tabulating. Counting kickers, Iowa has 35 juniors or seniors on the two-deep heading to Nebraska this week. That is a lot of experience, and it is a big part of why the Hawkeyes have been winning games. But it also means that this year’s edition is indeed an extension of the past, and is not one with a bunch of new names that have changed the face of the program (18 of the 22 starters this week will be upperclassmen). How good has this group been? Let’s look at their previous four seasons, the career range of the current roster, and the impartial final rating from Sagarin, so that there cannot be any accusation of bias -
2011: 7-6 (#45)
2012: 4-6 (#70)
2013: 6-5 (#32)
2014: 7-5 (#47)
The average rating comes out to #48.5, which is pretty close to where I would have pegged them on my own numbers through those seasons. In terms of measuring how they stack up against quality teams from other conferences, those current fifth-year seniors have been to three bowl games -
2011: Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14
2013: LSU 21 Iowa 14
2014: Tennessee 45 Iowa 28
So what has happened in 2015? A veteran group has played solid fundamental football (+11 in turnover ratio), and that has been enough to get through a weak non-conference schedule (they needed a 57-yard FG on the final play to beat unimposing Pittsburgh in Iowa City, otherwise that game goes to overtime), and a Big 10 West that has been rather soft this autumn. Has something drastic changed to the point where a team that was only average, when graded among the power conferences over the past four seasons, suddenly vaults into being a national power? No. There has not been a dynamic Heisman candidate emerge on offense; and the systems and players have not changed all that much from the recent past.
What this reflects, of course, is that if a team goes unbeaten it carries a whole lot of weight, far more than it should. For those that do not dig too deeply into the sport, it might look preposterous for me to suggest that 8-3 Oregon is better than 11-0 Iowa, but just sit back and watch the video from that way the Ducks have played over the past month with Vernon Adams back healthy at QB, and the teams are not really even that close. To use an impartial source, The Gold Sheet would rate Oregon as a 9-point favorite over the Hawkeyes on a neutral field. That is how proper Power Ratings work; the focus being on just how good each team is at this moment, and if you are going to put good money into play the accuracy of the ratings is essential.
Want a clear example of what the betting markets think of Iowa, those that put their money where their mouth is? Nebraska is struggling along at 5-6 this season, yet the current line at Pinnacle for Friday's game vs. supposedly #4 tam in the nation is pick’em.
About Last Night…
Golden State had more assists (32) than the Lakers had made baskets (31). Let that sink in for a moment, to help realize the remarkable level of basketball this team is playing. No starter went more than 30:16, but that also helps to explain what makes this bunch special – the selfless team aspect of the offense, and the ball pressure across all positions on defense, remain there no matter which combination is in the game.
In the Sights…
As the next few days unfold there will not only be particulars about individual NCAA hoops games across the tourney boards, but also handicapping them in general. Tonight we get an opportunity to put both a game matchup and a concept into play, and it should be a fun one to watch, playing #768 Kansas/Vanderbilt Over, in one of the better games of this early season, with 152.5 the going rate this morning. The concept is a basic one – if there are two elite teams playing in a tourney final, and neither has been taxed through the early rounds, then the energy and intensity ramp up, which can lead to an end-game frenzy if it is close. I believe this one will be.
By the time you get to a tourney final, the teams are familiar with the surroundings, and the Jayhawks and Commodores have had no problem at all knocking down shots in this gym, a combined 44-94 from 3-point range. Yes, much of that is attributed to facing bad defenses, but these teams have excellent shooters (Vandy will be as good as any in the land from the perimeter this season). Now they get one more look at those favorable rims, and fatigue is no issue whatsoever because each has had two easy rides to this stage.
Look for a high-energy game from the start, fresh legs allowing both teams to attack with aggression and confidence, and if it is close late a fight to the finish that can bring a lot of scramble points into play.
In the Sights, Thanksgiving Night...
(A copy and paste from the post-column thread, with a solid Thursday value opportunity out there)
On CAL/SAN DIEGO STATE - I think the markets are being generous with this Total. I believe these will two outstanding defensive teams this season with their size and athleticism, and the Aztecs may even be a Top Five in that category. There is not going to be a lot of pace, neither team knows the shooting sight lines, and even if it is close late there are guys that will clang FT's. At 134 or better you have a bonus "In the Sights..." on #534 Under for this evening.
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