Point Blank – September 18
On Hue Jackson, and Cincy's “Pandora’s Box”…It’s Flacco’s Fantasy Friday…You’ll never make a Saint of this bunch…
The Bengals are flying under the radar screens as this season begins, despite having in theory made two of the biggest off-season additions of any team since the end 2014 – getting Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones healthy. Those two combined for 90 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 TDs in 2013, and when some of the defensive rules where changed after that campaign to make things even easier for big receivers to maneuver downfield, there was the potential of this offense becoming special last year.
It did not happen, of course, because Jones did not play a down because of injury, and Eifert only played one game. With A. J. Green and Giovanni Bernard also missing three games apiece, it became a patchwork to get through the season, yet they got through it rather well, turning in a 10-5-1 campaign. A review of that is important, because if you can win that many games with those key cogs missing, someone is doing something right. That means time to tip the cap to Hue Jackson first, before moving forward.
There was a feature topic on Jackson in this column last August, talking about the possibilities of one of the NFL’s more under-rated assistant coaches making an impact in his first season with the Bengals, but the injuries derailed that. Now it becomes a different story, the multitude of weapons enabling a wide-open approach, and you can let Jackson’s own words from this summer set it up - "We're going to open Pandora's box more. We tickled it a little bit last year. We're going to open it up a little bit more this year and be who I think we can be … It's a chess match, and whoever is not afraid to pull the trigger, pull the trigger. And I'm not afraid, so let's go."
Much of that was evident in the opener, and as noted in Tuesday’s column (link at the bottom of the page), Eifert in particular opened with a monster day at Oakland, nine catches for 104 yards and a pair of TDs. He has a chance to play his way into the Gronkowski/Graham class, and that opens up the outside for Green , Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and the underneath for Bernard and Jeremy Hill. This becomes a difficult team to defend, and a strong case could be made that at the non-QB skill positions – WR/TE/RB – the Bengals field the league’s best talent. The question now becomes how well Andy Dalton can step up to maximize these weapons, and a big part of that falls on Jackson’s shoulders.
The Cincinnati players have been vocal about their respect for Jackson since he came on board last year, but he has earned my respect long before that. Take a look at the following chart, the Oakland Raiders W/L record over the past 12 seasons -
2003: 4-12
2004: 5-11
2005: 4-12
2006: 2-14
2007: 4-12
2008: 5-11
2009: 5-11
2010: 8-8
2011: 8-8
2012: 4-12
2013: 4-12
2014: 3-13
2015: 0-1
Why are the two break-even seasons in bold? Those happen to be the two years that Jackson was their head coach, one of the least appreciated sequences in NFL history. To take that downtrodden franchise and have them competitive was Lombardian, but it did not get appreciated that way. Watch this offense closely as the season unfolds; there is not the proper market appreciation yet of either the talent upgrade, or the wizard behind the curtain that just might make some special things happen.
Friday Fantasy QB
As will be the case each Friday, I will step in the Fantasy fray for a small bit of what will hopefully be wisdom, looking for the best value QB on the board. Note the word value being the key – it is in finding someone that can produce at the right price that opens up the wallet at other positions. This week I believe that is JOE FLACCO, being sold short off of that dismal opening at Denver (he is sitting at #18 at DraftKings). Having a bad day against the Bronco defense is something that NFL QBs will have to grow accustomed to this season, but it is an entirely different matchup against an Oakland secondary that rates among the league’s worst this week, without much of a pass rush to help them out.
The Raiders did not have an answer for the Bengals in their opener, allowing 7.9 YPP and a pair of Andy Dalton TDs, without getting a sack or interception, but think about how bad it could have been, Cincy backing completely off and not registering a first down after going up 33-0 late in the third quarter. Now it is transition time for Oakland once again with Nate Allen going on IR, and even if Charles Woodson can play it will be with a dislocated shoulder. That opens the door for the Ravens to vent some frustrations, and with Flacco having been among the league’s best road performers, he brings value to the setting.
In the Sights, NCAA…
(a cut-and-paste from Thursday)
To refer back to today’s opening salvo, in the early part of any season there is almost as much reading of the marketplace as there is of the teams themselves. What moves are real, what moves are feints to set up a take-back later, and what can one learn that can help to anticipate movement are all part of the game. And it is all part of why I believe it is now go-time for #152 ALABAMA UNDER. A game that opened at 49 has been hit to the Over twice, but those motives may not have been genuine, so in a game in which TDs will be extremely hard-earned, there is both football science and line value to work with.
These may well be the two best defenses in the nation overall, and they each are at the top of their class in one category – Alabama’s front seven is so strong that the Crimson Tide are the best North/South defense in the land, and among the best in that category in recent memory, while Mississippi has so much speed and athleticism that the Rebels may be the best East/West defense in the land. With both offenses still trying to find their identity behind new QBs, I believe the defenses take command here, not only limiting goal line opportunities, but with the few drives that do get close being more likely to end up as FG attempts, rather than TDs.
In the last two-head-to-heads between these teams there have only been five offensive TDs scored, and only one of them coming in the first half of play. That fundamental matchup has not changed at all, and if anything the fact that they are meeting a few weeks earlier in the schedule than they did in 2014 matters – Chad Kelly and Jake Coker have never taken a snap against these defenses, and both could use a few more games under their belts before taking on this level of challenge.
In the Sights NFL…
In this week’s NFL review column (link below), there was a take on how you should not get carried away with the poor showing of Jameis Winston – for someone to be starting an NFL opener after only playing through his sophomore season of college is unheard of, and there will be a learning curve. That will lead to value as the markets do their usual over-reacting, so you may think that purchasing a ticket on #263 TAMPA BAY is taking advantage of that. In this case it really is not, it is more about the weaknesses of New Orleans. So time for a little musical interlude from Mick, Keith (you should be adding "Crosseyed Heart" to your collection) and the gang, because it will indeed be difficult to make Saints of this bunch -
As faithful readers from last year will remember, my power rating for Rob Ryan’s defensive acumen is far off of most in the marketplace; he has not done a very good job at any of his various NFL stops. Last year this defense was #28 on the Football Outsiders best charts, and I graded them dead last for their Week #1 performance, allowing an average Arizona offense to roll for 427 yards at 7.5 per snap, without coming up with a takeaway or a sack. This bunch just does not possess a major upside right now, especially in the secondary.
There was a hope that the back-end of the defense would get an upgrade from the additions of Brandon Browner and Jairus Byrd, but Byrd has yet to play because of injury. Last week his replacement, Rafael Bush, also went down, and that has forced Kenny Phillips to the top of the depth chart for Sunday. Phillips has not played in an NFL game since 2012, and was cut two weeks ago, but the Saints brought him back because he at least learned the playbook in training camp. Starting CB Keenan Lewis also remains sidelined, forcing undrafted rookie Delvin Breaux into the lineup again, after he was flagged for four penalties last week (one was declined). With Mike Evans returning to practice for Tampa Bay and looking fit to go, the passing game can make things happen into this bunch, the backdoor never getting slammed shut.
The New Orleans flaws are not limited to defense – there is also the issue of the offense having to adapt to life without Jimmy Graham, and that reared its ugly head in the red zone last week, when they had to settle for FGs three times. This just is not an imposing team right now, and for all the talk of the Superdome advantage, the 2014 home field for the Saints registered as one of the weakest single-seasons ever from an ATS standpoint, the eight games here falling 88.5 points short of the market projections. The Bucs fought them to the final possession in both of last year’s encounters, losing here in OT and by 23-20 in Tampa, and the gap between these teams is not what the markets are projecting.
The Weekend Thread
This will be the comment thread through the weekend, so as always you are encouraged to bring your best ideas in, so that I can steal them and bet for myself. There will be attempts to answer all questions but sometimes there will be a lag; when the games are in play my focus is on charting and In-Running, so there will be occasions in which something will sit in the queue for a bit. Handicapping discussions are greatly encouraged; “Who do you like in the XXX vs. YYY game?” is not.
You will find a lot of NCAA and NFL ideas by sorting through the review columns for those sports, with those threads also being filled with ideas for the weekend ahead –
What a “Bettor Better Know” - NCAA
What a “Bettor Better Know” - NFL
And for some background while you are sorting through your various processes, the week #2 NFL podcast with RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Stephen Nover and myself can be found here.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)