Point Blank – September 3
NFLX4 - Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid…Understanding the TCU line move, but not agreeing…It was Greinke/Kershaw that beat the Giants the last two nights, not necessarily the “Dodgers”…
On a night in which the colleges begin playing for real, with some terrific high-profile openers, if the priority here is to steer you towards the best ways to make money, that means getting the hell out of this NFL board first…
The single biggest advantage that is available on the “player” side of the counter is the opportunity to be selective. We are never forced to make a bet, unless there are particular life situations attached, all the while the stores are forced to make a price for just about everything under the sun. Pre-season football is prime on the list; the numbers get set several days before the player rotations have been made known, and the first to the windows with the information can take advantage. The books still survive those games because there is a high enough degree of randomness in the results to offset some of the sharp play, but many August’s their goal is mostly to survive.
That takes us to tonight’s full board, and what might seem like extreme vulnerability for the guys setting the odds. There are not many starters that will see major action, and for the majority of the league most starters will not play at all. So how much time have I spent digging for info to beat the board? Very little. This night is fraught with peril.
Here is the gist – with the starters sitting out, and with most teams needing to cut 22 players by Saturday afternoon, the scoreboard is of as low of a priority as it ever is in professional sports. Game plans are more focused on seeing particular players perform particular skills than Time/Score and Down/Distance considerations, and that creates a level of randomness that even good info can struggle to overcome. As for that info, much of it cannot necessarily be trusted for the entire 60 minutes. If certain expectations of evaluation are met, the coaches will often veer to a different direction.
I do believe the Redskins will play Colt McCoy the entire game tonight. While I want to like that in principle, it could also mean McCoy running the play clock down and handing the ball off in the fourth quarter. I also find it difficult to believe that Tom Savage likely going the distance for Houston should have the Texas in this range at Dallas. But I am just not going to take any of it any further – if the coaches do not care about the scoreboard, then I am not supposed to either, especially when laying vigorish.
How about this for some of the Thursday morning headlines –
“It’s Bubble Time for Rams roster hopefuls”
“Preseason finale tonight gives Bucs’ fringe players chance to shine”
“Raiders looking to settle some jobs in exhibition finale against Seahawks”
“Bubble players get last chance to impress Steelers”
“Ravens on bubble see meaning in otherwise meaningless preseason game”
Is this what you want to be trying to sort through all day (although I do admire the Contra Costa Times for using that dreaded “exhibition” word that the NFL so frowns upon). Meanwhile if you do want to do some NFL thinking about things other than tonight’s games, here is a link to the opening Podcast that I did with RJ Bell, Stephen Nover and Steve Fezzik this week. We were a bit long-winded for the season debut, and there is a promise of much tighter presentations during the weekly in-season sessions, but you may find an idea or two here that can become a part of your thought processes -
In the meantime, there are edges to be found on other fronts -
In the Sights, NCAA…
It was not surprising to see a market surge to TCU yesterday, pushing the Horned Frogs to -17 for their opener tonight, and that is the price point at which #142 Minnesota comes into play. Yes, after missing a chance to get into the NCAA Playoffs last year there is that sentiment that Gary Patterson and his team will go for the jugular when they can, but they do not have full control of these proceedings.
TCU took a lot of teams by surprise in 2014, that wide-open spread attack not something that Patterson had shown previously. But now come the second looks of 2015, and one of those belongs to a Golden Gopher defense that actually made a solid account of itself in losing 30-7 at Fort Worth last September – given that their own offense turned the ball over five times, to hold the Horned Frogs to their season low in points, and to almost a full yard per play below their average in all other games, could actually be labeled as a “win” for the unit.
Here is what matters – that Minnesota defense had little idea of the pace and tactics of the Horned Frogs, who had only played Samford previously. Now a veteran cast will be much more prepared, especially in the right places – Jerry Kill’s squad brings back all four starters in the secondary, all in their senior season, and you can expect CB Eric Murray to be on the NFL draft board next spring, possibly fellow corner Briean Boddy-Calhouse and safety Damarius Travis as well. By having that experience and savvy in the back end this defense can limit TCU striking quickly over the top, and force the Horned Frogs to work underneath and have clean execution to get up and down the field. It creates the kind of setting in which breaking the game open is difficult, especially with all of those new TCU faces on defense, a unit that is likely to be without key cog James McFarland tonight (no official suspension yet, but wait for it), and will have growing pains at LB, a particular issue against the kind of power attack they will be facing.
Do not forget that amidst that brilliant 2014 campaign, the only road games outside of the state of Texas for the Horned Frogs were life-and-death affairs to win 31-30 at West Virginia, and 34-30 at lowly Kansas. Meanwhile as the Ohio State steamroller was building last November, the Buckeyes had a fight on their hands to survive 31-24 on this field, recovering a late on-side kick to seal it. This one may not be as easy as the way the markets are trying to project it.
In the Sights, MLB…
We can also step in against the markets on the MLB diamonds as well, a surprising surge of money on the Dodgers this morning pushing the Straight line into the wrong range, and naturally all associated lines have had to follow along. I am going to opt for one of those options, #908 San Diego Run Line, as the best path, daring the Los Angeles offense to break the game open.
There will be headlines galore this morning stating that “The Dodgers swept the Giants”, but understand what that means. The reality is that Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw were brilliant the last two nights, and it helped lead to a sweep in which the offense only scored nine runs. They have only scored more than five one time in their last 21 games, courtesy of David Holmberg being forced into a start for Cincinnati, and Colin Rea shows the ability to throw enough strikes, and get enough ground balls, to make those slumping bats have to earn their way around the bases.
Meanwhile Mat Latos does not bring any kind of positive form, failing to complete the fifth inning in each of his last three starts, and laboring to PPI counts of 19.5, 18.2 and 18.4 in the process. What does it mean when the starter can’t eat innings? The L.A. middle relief is brought squarely into play, and there are few groups around the Major’s struggling more than that one right now. The last two days there were tickets cashed here on the Reds against the Cubs, noting the energy that playing a rival that is in contention can bring to a team not in the hunt, and I expect that kind of energy from the Padres tonight.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)