Point Blank – August 28
Dealing with the Arizona Cardinals Defense (Camp Questions #18)…Dealing with an MLB night of mismatches…The Lions will not bring much of a roar to Jacksonville…
One of the items being focused on in the August tour across various teams and their pre-season issues are those settings where major change can take place. Some of you may not like that, but in this endeavor you should consider change to be your friend – while others may be anchored to past performance patterns and statistics, you can take advantage by being among the first to recognize that what lies ahead may bear little connection to what went on in the past. Today that takes us to the Arizona Cardinals defense.
The Cardinals were not supposed to go 11-5 in 2014 with the overall numbers they produced, one of those cases of a team that consistently either made big plays, or had big plays happen, when they were needed. First be a little careful with an automatic downgrade because of the appearance of fortune, because teams coached by Bruce Arians have actually made a habit of doing that, counting back to his days as OC with the Steelers. But then be prepared for a considered downgrade of the defense, which made most of those 2014 plays.
Todd Bowles had a terrific season as DC, good enough to earn him the head job with the Jets. He managed to maximize good, but not great, talent in the front seven, and he was able to change things up enough to make it difficult for opponents to game plan. Now James Bettcher takes over, and while he has been with the Cardinals for the past two seasons, he only had one campaign as an NFL assistant prior to that, with the Colts in 2012. He knows the personal and has worked with the Bowles playbook, but so much of what Bowles did was having the experience to gamble and dial up blitzes at the right time. Can Bettcher possibly have that level of daring at this early stage of his career?
And then there are the personnel issues. Dan Williams, Antonio Cromartie, Larry Foote, Tommy Kelly and Sam Acho combined for 53 starts last year and are gone, although at least Foote has stayed on as an assistant coach. They were hoping that free agent LBs LaMarr Woodley and Sean Weatherspoon would step in and start, but after missing all of 2014, Weatherspoon has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, and will miss his third straight pre-season game this week (from Arians – “I need to see a lot, haven’t seen anything yet. That’s very discouraging right now, to not know where he’s at as a football player.”), making assimilation difficult. They were also hoping that free agent Corey Peters would step in at NT, but he has been lost for the season after suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Topping the depth chart at that position is rookie Rodney Gunter, a rather unsung fourth-rounder out of Delaware State. Get the picture?
Yes, there is some talent at CB to replace Cromartie in Jerraud Powers and Justin Bethel, but it forces changes in the rotation, and part of why Bowles was willing to dial up so many blitzes was the comfort of Cromartie and Patrick Peterson being OK left on an island. It is a different story now. In fact, in is a much different story across this defense, one that needs to be viewed as a new entity, and not a carry-over from 2014. There are issues now in terms of talent, depth, chemistry and tactics, and if you anchor your numbers to their past performances you may end up starting in the wrong place.
In The Sights, MLB…
Friday brings a most unusual MLB board for this time of year, the last week of August looking like the last week of September, when teams fighting for playoff spots are up against also-rans with extended rosters just playing out their contractual obligations. But it is not September yet, which is why a board that has a half dozen games priced at -200 or high creates a unique challenge.
How do you play it? I will end up with small pieces of many of the big dogs at the highest price point available; it is simply too early for numbers this high to be on the board. There are vulnerable favorites like Washington and Pittsburgh, with Max Scherzer not having great form and now dealing with a long layoff, and Francisco Liriano only OK recently, and certainly not dominating (despite not allowing an earned run vs. the Giants in his last outing, he labored to a 19.7 PPI). I have written about Matt Harvey’s disdain for pitching out of his normal routine, and now it will be 12 days since he has thrown. The flip side of the equation can mean underdogs with some punch and a sense of purpose, like the Cubs, especially with Jason Hammel appearing to be healthy again. And with four of the games bringing a Total of 7 or lower, there can also be some Run Line opportunities unfolding.
These are not games that you can sink your teeth into; it is more about taking nibbles than bites. But the settings are being stretched out so far that if you find the right value for some of these dogs, and just allow Baseball to be Baseball, there is the potential to grind some profit.
In the Sights, NFL…
Week #3 of the pre-season means a shifting of focus for a lot of teams, as the starters ramp up with more playing time, and as part of that ramping up the scoreboard matters a whole lot more. But not everywhere. I do not believe Jim Caldwell and his Lions have any sense of urgency for tonight’s trip to Jacksonville, with a host of key players not set for any action at all, and some areas particularly vulnerable for this setting. With the Jaguars placing a heavier emphasis on both getting time for their starters, and getting a “W”, #256 Jacksonville is a good fit at the price point.
You will see a little of Matthew Stafford tonight, not a lot, with some precaution because the starters on the right side of the Lion OL, LaAdrian Waddle and Larry Warford, will not play. When Stafford does drop to pass he will not be targeting Calvin Johnson, who will not leave the sidelines. But it is even tougher on the other side of the ball, where not only is the entire Detroit starting DL unavailable, but key reserve Caraun Reid will also not go. So with a pre-season win already under his belt, and with a home game vs. Buffalo on deck, Caldwell will care little about this scoreboard result.
That is not the case for Jacksonville, where Gus Bradley has a legit building process going on, and tonight’s setting gets an added jolt of electricity from T. J. Yeldon making his debut. The first team offense moved the ball well against the Giants last week, but stalled before finding the end zone, which brings a sense of urgency, and that vulnerable Lion defensive front can be exploited both from a lack of quality, and also one of depth, as the game wears on.
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