Point Blank – July 3
Fernandez is Fine, Cain’s Category, & the Moore Mantra…Are Chris Archer’s arrows now being shot too high…There is something not quite “jake” about Peavy’s call-up…
Yesterday the prime focus was on three high-profile starting pitchers making their return after long absences due to injury, and the results bring plenty of food for thought, with the markets possibly misreading two of them. That means time to get to work.
Jose Fernandez may simply be that good
I was on record in the Thursday column believing that Fernandez was being rushed, the Marlins trying to find a way to get some fans in the seats for a Thursday afternoon game, when perhaps a start or two at AAA was a batter scenario. But the Marlins won on both counts. They got 32.598 into the seats, 50 percent above their per-game average, and Fernandez was indeed ready.
The Miami ace allowed hits to the first two batters he faced, each later coming around to score, but he retired 18 of the final 23, with six Ks and no BB, hitting the strike zone on 68 of 89 offerings, and running the radar gun to 99 mph. His GB% was 47.4, which off of a career 46.0 is right about where it should be. There was much to like, and that added confidence boost of his home run in the bottom of the fifth inning added a psychological boost. He quickly retired the side in order in the sixth, leaving with a much more solid return than the 4.50 ERA will chronicle. Stamp him healthy.
Putting Matt Cain in the proper category
It was an entirely different story for Matt Cain. He did not show much command, with twice as many BB (four) as K (two), and he was tagged for a pair of HRs. While ERA is easy to calculate when a pitcher gives up as many runs as innings pitched, note that this was not one of those cluster games in which the run count was unfavorable – FIP calls the game a 9.88, with only 4.5 percent of his pitches producing a swing that missed. Grant Brisbee, who does a good job breaking down the Giants at the McCovey Chronicles phrased the struggles well – “Andrew Susac's glove hopped around the zone a bit, hinting that Cain wasn't exactly fine with his command”.
Now the important part – this may not be a case of health with Cain, but rather simply who he is at this stage of his career. Yesterday a chart showed the steady drop in FIP across recent seasons, but in particular note those Thursday home runs. One of the keys to success for Cain has been getting an inordinate amount of flyball outs, taking advantage of west coast ballparks to get away with stuff that was never all that special. So consider his career if xFIP was brought into play.
What is xFIP? It is taking the basic FIP formula, and then making the added adjustment of showing what a pitcher’s counts would look like if he allowed the league average HRs. For Cain it tells quite a story – his career 3.41 ERA reads at a 4.16 via xFIP, showing what a 7.5 ratio of HR/FB has done for him (MLB will run around 10.5 most seasons). His best xFIP for a single season was only 3.78.
As such, I will not discount Thursday all that much for Cain not being ready yet; I am more inclined to believe that nearly reaching 2,000 MLB innings before his 30th birthday has taken a gradual toll, and that he may be no better than a league average pitcher, if even that. His stuff had him walking a tightrope even its peak; he may not be a Wallenda anymore.
The Matt Moore Mantra
Like Cain, Moore was not effective on Thursday, and perhaps there should be some discounting for this being a rehab start, as he wore down early. But do not discount too much – those may not have been numbers below expectation because of a lack of rhythm, they may be proper numbers for a guy that may have the wrong expectations. So here is the mantra that you need to learn –
Matt Moore was an average AL pitcher in 2013
Matt Moore was an average AL pitcher in 2013
Matt Moore was an average AL pitcher in 2013
Yes, history will record a 17-4/3.29 that is the starting point for many when they look at his past, but FIP read those same pitches at 3.95, and xFIP at 4.32. The American League that season played out to 3.97 and 3.92 in those categories. He just was not anything special, but baseball rewarded him with some favorable rolls of the dice. The previous season was an 11-11/3.81, with a 3.93 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. The AL in 2012 played to 4.09, 4.14 and 4.09. That tells us that Moore’s two full seasons as a starter were awfully close to league average each time, which can bring some advantages against those that read 2013’s roll of the dice the wrong way.
Are Chris Archer’s arrows now being shot too high?
The Friday board brings a prime opportunity to put one of 2015 best performers, Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer, under the microscope. He has opened at a terrific 9-5/2.31, legit Cy Young stuff, and FIP is right there at 2.46. When you bring both 11.0 K/9, and a 49.0 GB%, it is a lethal combination. It is that latter count that raises the concern, however, and calls for closer scrutiny.
In seven of his first nine starts, Archer came away with a GB% of 50.0 or more, and there was no one better in the Majors through that stretch. Yet he only sported a 4-4 personal W/L because of a lack of run support. The ERA for the first nine was 2.47. Since then it has been a 5-1/2.15, which can easily lead one to believe that he has been getting even better, but that may not be the case. Only twice over those eight starts did the GB% reach 50.0, and in half of them it was 33.3 or less. Watch that carefully – his decline in that category has led to six HRs across those 54 1/3 innings, double the count he had allowed over the 54 2/3 frames of his first nine.
Archer is really good, this should not be read as an attempt to discount that. But he is at peak market pricing right now, which can mean opportunity in the days ahead.
In the Sights…
One of the curiosities from Thursday was the way that the markets were pricing those three starters focused on above, and there is another today – Jake Peavy returns to the San Francisco rotation for the first time since April 17, after he opened at a dismal 0-2/9.39 before a bad back sent him to the DL. So when you see him penciled in tonight, there may be the assumption that he is back to form, and the early market trading this morning, which has dropped #904 Washington to as low as -130, is apparently of that mind. That opens the door to not only buck a pitcher who may not be ready, but also to get behind one that is a bit under-valued.
Peavy is pitching tonight not because he has shown promise, but instead because Tim Lincecum is on the DL, and Tim Hudson had to leave the tem to attend to a personal matter. Peavy’s six games at AAA Sacramento checked in at an ugly 0-3/6.12, and in his last outing was tagged for five runs in the first inning at Las Vegas. This was not a merit call-up, but instead a forced one.
Meanwhile it might be easy to label Gio Gonazlez as the same-old/same-old with his 5-4/4.41 opening, but that would be wrong. Gonzalez is working the lower regions of the strike better than he ever has, with a 57.9 GB% that is getting enough innings behind it to be believed. FIP rates him at 3.16, and the confidence he brings from this mound, with a 23-12/2.85 over nearly 300 innings, is enough to play him into the slumping Giants at this price point, especially with another stellar outing by Max Scherzer bringing the entire Washington bullpen in fresh and ready.
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