Point Blank – June 9
Does Game #3 Begin Where Game #2 Ended?...Piecing the Tuesday Pitching Puzzles: Time to Harangue Harang; Heston to the drawer; forgiving Syndergaard’s syns…
Yesterday’s take breaking down Game #2 of the NBA Finals brought a Shakespearean motif, with the drama that has unfolded so far conjuring images of both classical tragedy, through the intensity and closeness of the games, and also episodes of comedy as well. It has been sublime competition; it has not necessarily been great basketball. Now it leads to what I believe is the key starting point for Game #3, this one not as a standalone event, but rather as a continuation of what has already been taking place. Same play, merely the next act, and the briefness of the intermission matters.
So what does that mean in purely basketball terms? Game #3 is not a clean slate. There is a carry-over from the physical energy required to get Game #2 to the finish line that will take court along with the players, as they position themselves for the opening tipoff. And under that particular microscope goes LeBron James.
It is not just that James played 50:20 on Sunday, it was what he had to do during those minutes. The Cleveland possessions on which he did not get a touch were rare, and his offensive activity has been coming against aggressive defenders. The opener last Thursday was more of the same. And while it is absolutely not rocket science to call for him to show signs of wear tonight, a key starting point is that it has already been happening –
FG FGA
First Half 14 28
Second Half/OT 15 45
By the time OT came around in each of the first two games, James was close to an empty tank, and the Cleveland production reflected that – the Cavaliers only made two baskets over those 10 minutes, one of them an absolute gimmee layup by LeBron at the end of Game #1. But you can extend it back even further; in the final 2:30 of each of the first two games, there were no made Cleveland FGs. Add it up and you have 15:00 of a heightened sample in terms of the meaning of each possession, and only one Cavalier basket made when the Golden State defense was actually trying.
So how does this translate into something practical? The best player on the floor will play hard, but may not perform as effectively as he has to this point. Any drop in production from James is something that the Cavaliers lack the tools to replace. That opens the door for what I believe will be a momentum shift in the series, but I am not alone in that thinking – the early Tuesday markets are taking the Warriors to -1.5. There is still some value left at that price, albeit diminished to a point that money management should acknowledge, but where there may be a Zig Zag element available in terms of value are LeBron’s individual props. Having registered Points+Rebounds+Assists counts that have shattered the projections in the first two games, I would suggest that category being a good place to look as you do your Tuesday shopping.
Also do not sell Stephen Curry short, should you find some of his options having been lowered. The defensive job Matthew Dellavedova did on him Sunday night will make for great NBA lore over time, but it is something that will be extremely difficult to repeat. Now Delly goes from being the hunter to the hunted, an entirely different psychological profile.
Now on to the Tuesday diamonds, where the pitching profiles bring some intriguing puzzle pieces into play, one offering the chance to fit into the portfolio right now.
Item: Time to harangue Harang
There is a 7.5 on the board at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati despite a first pitch temperature that should still be above 80 degrees, and a key piece in putting the puzzle together for that Total has been the surprising work of Aaron Harang, who sports a 2.45 after 12 starts and 77 IP with the Phillies. It has not translated to a winning record, because winning is difficult with that supporting cast, but there has been a 7-3-2 run to the Under via his unexpected results. The key word is “results”. It may well show in the weeks ahead that the outcomes were better than the actual pitches thrown.
Harang celebrated his 37th birthday a month ago to the day, and entered this season with over 2,000 MLB innings, at a 4.15 ERA and 4.10 FIP. That current 2.45 allowance is more than a full run better than he had performed in any single season. So has a fountain of youth been found? No. As one might expect, the pop from his right arm is not what it once was, a 6.3 K/9 that would be a career low. And he has not replaced that with groundballs either, only getting 33.9 percent, which would also be a career low. What is has been is a lot of flyball roulette, with only 3.8 per cent of them becoming HRs. The MLB average in that category has been 10.7 this season, and Harang’s career count has been 9.9.
Cooler early-season weather can certainly help a pitcher in this category. Harang has had a good run of ballparks, and even when he started at Coors Field it was 46 degrees at first pitch. Look for him to begin to struggle now that summer temperatures are at hand, leading to more carry on those flyballs, and both the opponent and the setting put #904 Over 7.5 “In the Sights” for this evening. Harang was only able to record one K of the 28 batters he faced in losing at home to Anthony DeSclafani and the Reds last week, and a quick second look will not make it any easier for his limited repertoire. Also note that DeSclafani failed to record a K of any of the 27 Phillies he faced, the second straight game his BB count exceeded the Ks, making him vulnerable in the rematch as well.
Item: Chris Heston, and “The Drawer”
Heston’s 5-4/4.29 opening may elicit yawns, bringing the appearance of a guy that is right near the league average. That would be a misleading read. The San Francisco hurlers path to that bottom line has been a roller coaster, and becomes another example of someone perhaps best left in the drawer until a pattern of consistency develops. Over Heston’s 11 starts he has allowed five runs or more five times, and one run or less in each of the other six. There has not been anything in between. And even FIP, which has a magnetic pull towards average that avoids many of the single-game extreme ERA fluctuations, which is indeed part of its charm, shows his inconsistencies – only three of his 11 starts have been less than a run off of his 3.55 in that category.
Is there a rhyme or reason between the good Heston and the bad? It is not easy to pinpoint. And until that can be found, playing on or against the Giants when he pitches may introduce a degree of randomness that is not favorable when the enterprise requires laying vigorish.
Item: Forgiving Noah Syndergaard’s syns
ERA and FIP can be arch-enemies at times, and there may not be a better example so far this season than Syndergaard’s last outing at San Diego. The box score will show that the Padres tagged him for seven runs over just four innings, an awful showing that goes into MLB’s annals etched in stone as a 15.75 per-nine allowance. But how bad can a pitcher have been when he faced 22 batters, struck out out 10 of them, and did not allow a single BB?
Derek Norris hit a HR for San Diego. Of the other 21 batters, only 11 could put the ball in play. But of those 11 contacts, nine went for hits. Some of that can be good swings at bad pitches, but there is also a high degree of baseball geometry at play. The going rate for BABIP so far this season is .294; that was a single-game .818. And six of those nine runners also came around to score, another distribution red flag (MLB records Syndegaard with a 34.9 percent LOB count for the game; the league average this season is 72.9).
The young Mets right-hander actually had flashes of really good stuff at San Diego. FIP calls it a 1.37, or less than 10 percent of the ERA allowance. The truth is somewhere in between, but a quick glance of only looking at Syndergaard’s innings pitched and runs allowing in that last outing would lead one down the wrong path.
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