Point Blank – May 26
Houston Raged, against the Dying of the Light (Playoff Passages #35)…Clayton Kershaw is fine…Predicting Randomness? An Ode to the Knuckleball…
Houston 128 Golden State 115
The Rockets have showcased many elements in their attempt to reach the NBA Finals, but rarely has high art been evoked. Musically it has been the pounding beat of rap, not the strings of Vivaldi. Visually graffiti comes to mind, even when they are playing well; wild bursts from spray cans, not subtle brush strokes. hence as they faced elimination when Game #4 tipped off, there was anything but an expectation of poetry. Yet it was difficult to watch the opening salvo without thinking of Dylan Thomas; Kevin McHale’s team indeed chose to not go gentle, into that good night.
At 1:58 into the game it was 7-0, and Golden State was not to get more than a point closer the rest of the way. It was 12-0 before the Warriors scored, 19-3 before they made their second shot, and at the end of the first quarter the Rockets led 45-22. Those 45 points set the all-time playoff record for the opening period from a team facing elimination. There were fascinating elements inside of that burst on both ends of the court. The early defensive intensity set the tone, and while James Harden rebounded from Game #3’s awful showing with 45 points, it was 27-13 before he scored for the first time.
The lead and the pace were being maintained, 55-36 midway through the second quarter, when drama took place that nearly altered the remaining playoff landscape, Stephen Curry crashing to the court at 5:52. It was the type of fall that led to a belief from many that his night was likely over, and it became a fascinating time to watch the In-Running machinations in play (being one of the believers that Curry would not return cost me an Under 234.5, with Steve Kerr’s hack-a-Smith to add a few minutes to the proceedings not helping that cause).
Did losing their MVP send the Warriors into a spin? Not at all, they closed the half on a 23-14 run to get back into the game. What does it mean to score 23 over 5:52? That pro-rates to 195 for a full game. That is how they responded, and also how the Houston defense reacted, the Rockets visibly losing some of their intensity on that end of the court. It was not going to last, of course – over the first 6:02 of the third quarter Golden State only managed 10 points, and it was 81-69 Houston when Curry made an unexpected return.
Was there an emotional boost for the Warriors with the floor leader back? No, a few minutes later it was 93-71. There was a flurry to begin the fourth quarter, but the margin did not get below six, and even when Josh Smith missed most of his FT attempts, Golden State could not make a closing run.
So what was learned that carries back to the Bay area for Wednesday night? As has been the case throughout the playoffs, Houston games provide difficult reads. This one marked the first time in league history both teams made at least 15 three-point attempts in a playoff game, and triples were knocked down at a sizzling 37-78 rate. It would take 71.8 percent shooting from inside the arc to match that. There was some terrific marksmanship, but also the kind of lax defense that can happen from both sides when a margin is in double figures for much of the night. Curry did appear to be at full health, so there may not be any lingering issues for Wednesday.
Perhaps the most important takeaway is that while the Rockets made their shots, it still was not fully poetry in motion. There were only 22 assists on those 43 field goals, to go with 16 turnovers. It was the frenetic energy of 10 blocked shots and eight steals that set the tone, not basketball precision, and on Wednesday they have to maintain that energy in an entirely different environment. That is unlikely, but the early markets have already taken their stand at Golden State -10.5. There is no value at that price in calling for the Rocket issues to get exposed, though some regression from the Game #4 shooting could make the Total worthy of a look, after the first two games on that court played to a 206.5.
Clayton Kershaw is Fine
Clayton Kershaw’s fall from 21-3/1.77 to 2-3/4.32 in the pitching categories that most get espoused through the Sports Mediaverse can have the appearance of the 2015 season being a Greek Tragedy. That is not the case. And while there may be no way to bring him into any play-on settings, with the oddsmakers not needing to adjust him all that much, at least there can be warnings issued to not fall into the trap of thinking that he is vulnerable. How does his 2015 campaign stack up against his career rates?
Career 2015
K/9 9.5 11.3
BB/9 2.8 2.5
GB% 45.3 52.7
SwS% 11.2 13.7
BABIP .274 .342
HR/FB% 6.9 20.0
FIP 2.74 2.90
Kershaw is throwing the ball as well as he ever has, and if there is something hitters really should be concerned about it is his GB% rising for the sixth time in seven seasons. That is a sign of maturing, and pitching to weak contact. What has happened so far this season is a major jump in the Home Run rate, which can be expected to regress, and that BABIP, which will also come back down. Note how consistent he has been in that latter category – since his rookie season the counts have been .269, .275, .269, .262, .251 and .278. There are analysts across the baseball media map scouring for reasons behind an apparent decline; they are best ignored.
Can the randomness of a knuckleball be your friend?
The unpredictability of a knuckleball might seem like the sort of thing to chase a serious handicapper away. But might that higher degree of randomness actually create an opening? If someone were to make a case that because there can be such extremes in play with that pitch, a team with a knuckleballer on the mound should never be too big of a favorite, nor too big of an underdog, there is actually a foundation to work with. So file this away, obviously with a grain of salt, but as something with a somewhat logical construction - had you taken +140 or more every time it was available in an R.A. Dickey start since 2009, it would have been a 15-17 record, with a return of +$745, or 23.3 percent on the dollar. And that includes an 0-6 in the category when he was with the Mets in 2010.
How do you use that sort of concept? To make some smaller plays off to the side, when you can beat the market by a couple of pennies. Tonight is a good example. Let’s call the going rate of return +144 on the White Sox. They go on the shopping list, and if a +149 or so shows up later in the day, Chicago makes it in the portfolio. It is the combination of a concept with a small edge, and also looking for an edge over the market as well. While so much of the handicapping focus goes towards the bigger wagers, those small grinders add up in a meaningful way over time.
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