Point Blank – April 20
The Playoff Passages, #2 (Games of 4/19)…Simon Says, “Bet Detroit”…
Sunday’s NBA was devoid of drama, with all four winners holding double-figure leads heading into the 4th quarter, and only the double-digit betting lines for Celtics/Cavaliers and Nets/Hawks keeping any mystery alive to the outcomes (though the former brought a beauty of an ending from a wagering standpoint). But sometimes the one-sided affairs can provide the best edges going forward, as you dig deep into the game flows while other attention spans wander…
Cleveland 113 Boston 100
No surprises here. The Cavaliers have too much balance for a mediocre Boston defense to contend with, and it was a firm 46-34 control of the boards. LeBron James went out of the way to get his teammates involved in the flow, perhaps a little too much in terms of his five turnovers, but Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 49 points in getting the first notch on their playoff belts. James is savvy enough to know that outside of getting this series over with as quickly as possible, the #2 goal is to get the confidence and rhythm of those two to a higher level before the challenges increase.
The Cleveland defense was another matter, however. Boston produced 1.04 PPP, with a solid game plan that had the ball moving effectively, with six different Celtics scoring in double figures. Particularly effective was Isaiah Thomas, who scored 22 points and dished 10 assists over 31:34, enough for a rather startling +5 in the +/- for his stint. David Blatt tried to counter that with more minutes from Iman Shumpert to provide better defense, and it will be a sub-plot to follow.
One would be remiss to not talk about the rather dramatic “Vegas” ending, the benefit of sports betting that the professional league’s have been getting for decades, though they will not admit it (Pete Rozelle would have, but not sure anyone in authority has since). Instead of the dull final stages of a game in double figures being salted away, the Cleveland lead was never more than 13, nor less than 10, over the final 5:28, and given that the closing line was fairly split between -11.5 and -12, that kept the wagering audience riveted. How much money changed hands when Phil Pressey’s layup at 0:05 tantalizingly rolled around about 240 degrees of the rim before spinning off? Plenty. And this series may produce something similar on Tuesday – Boston is not good enough to challenge for the outright win, but the Celtics can find enough ways to score to hang around this spread range once again.
Atlanta 99 Brooklyn 92
A prime question not just for this series, but for the Eastern Conference bracket, was whether or not the Hawks are good enough yet to be able to “flip the swtich”, and get back to their earlier-season form, after a disjointed closing stretch in which Mike Budenholzer’s attempts to rest his key cogs seemed to backfire. That question did not have an affirmative answer.
The Hawks did open with some passion, jumping ahead by a dozen in the 1st quarter, and by halftime they had converted 11 Brooklyn turnovers into 17 points to maintain a consistent lead in double figures. But the Eye Test could only give some of the credit for that to the Atlanta defense – there was also the matter of the Nets coming out disturbingly flat. And that was the secondary question coming in – there was a take here last week about Brooklyn’s last weekend of the regular season being so dismal that one could question just how badly the Nets wanted to extend their campaign. They brought a noticeable lethargy to the early proceedings, and when they made a few runs in the Second Half the Eye test again was seeing two sides of the equation – those surges were not just them playing better, but also Atlanta unable to sustain 48 minutes of good basketball, something the Hawks once did, but have done rarely since the All Star break. The Brooklyn attitude problem could best be summarized by this post-game take from Lionel Hollins - "If you don't believe you can play in this series, you should believe it now." If a team with playoff-tested veterans like Joe Johnson and Deron Williams were taking the court not believing they could compete, there is something wrong in that locker room.
While Atlanta drifted in and out of playing well, and lost the boards 47-39 (the Hawks were #27 in rebounding during the regular season, a story line worth following from here on out), that exemplary ball movement on offense was there – four of the starters had 12 FG attempts, while Paul Millsap had 11, and all five starters had multiple assists. But as was the case in the regular season, this team wins because it plays great basketball, not because it has great basketball players. Now that the Nets have had a chance to deal with that playbook the talent gap is not what the oddsmakers are pricing for this series, so much of the focus as Wednesday approaches is the reading between the lines of comments from Hollins and his players – if they bring the will to challenge they can get another game into single digits, but they lack the requisite mental toughness to pull an upset.
Memphis 100 Portland 86
The storyline here was about the PG play for Memphis, unfolding in two acts. First was that Mike Conley benefitted from sitting out four games by playing with a high level of physical energy, looking healthier than I had expected. He scored 16 points in 23:48, and while the chemistry between him and the rest of the offense needs work (two turnovers, only one assist), seeing his energy was a boost for the others, especially on the defensive end. With Conley setting an early tone against Damian Lillard, the Portland offense was a disjointed mess throughout the affair.
The second act attached to Conley’s return was Beno Udrih coming off the bench, and playing superbly – he had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and zero turnovers, after having reached double figures only four times previously in 43 playoff games. When Dave Joerger gets 48 minutes of Conley/Udrih it creates something that the Trail Blazers will have a difficult time countering with their current limitations. Hence, why they were trailing by 24 entering the 4th quarter.
Lillard had an awful time, going 5-21 from the field, including missing all six triples, with only three assists over 39:23. Not only must he contend with trying to defend at his position, but in addition to Conley and Udrih, Tony Allen will also be used to guard him over the course of this series. That all becomes magnified because there is no one to pick up the slack in the back-court, unless Arron Afflalo can heal enough to contribute. On Sunday it was C. J. McCollum having to play 36:57, and it was a dismal tour in which he went 1-8 from the field while not generating a single assist. Portland shot a season-low 33.7 from the field, but in this case the way the numbers got produced was clear – it was not bad shooting, it was having to take so many bad shots.
Let Joerger’s post-game take define that defense – “We tried to show Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge a lot of crowds, and had people in front of them as much as possible trying to make it frustrating.” The dynamic duo of the Trail Blazers were harassed into a combined 18-55, and without viable options to take the pressure off of those two it is a difficult matchup (they are now 0-5 this season vs. the Grizzlies). This should be one series in which the Game #2 line actually goes up, instead of any Zig Zag reduction.
LA Clippers 107 San Antonio 92
There was a heightened focus on watching this one because there was a Clippers Series commitment in pocket, detailed “In the Sights” from the Friday column (full archive at the bottom of this page), and the main key to that investment was in evidence – as Gregg Popovich has noted in detail, the Spurs are going to go as far as Tony Parker can take them. So what happens in a series in which they are going to lose the PG battle? Things like Sunday night happen. Chris Paul is simply a difficult matchup for Parker, in a multitude of ways, and it will be a genuine challenge for Pops and his encyclopedia of options to scheme out the counter.
The numbers tell the story – Parker was 4-11 from the field, with only one assist, over 28:38. Meanwhile Paul was 13-20, with seven rebounds and six assists, as LA produced a +20 over his 37:48 of floor time. The tangible production jumps out, but do not neglect the minutes. It is not easy for San Antonio to get more than about 35 or so in any game from Parker, while Paul can get into the 40’s if need be. Popovich did show some of his options in Game #1, running a series of different defenders at Paul, but that does not necessarily ease Parker’s burden – switching off of Paul means having to chase J. J. Reddick of off physical off-ball screens is not an easy task for him.
But despite winning comfortably, it is not all rosy for the Clippers. Pops showed his willingness to go to hack-a-Jordan, who was only 5-12 from the FT line, and there is also the matter of Doc Rivers only being able to go six deep in terms of players that can genuinely produce something. Jamal Crawford was explosive offensively, scoring 17 points in 22:34, but he is a one-trick pony, with no rebounds, assists or steals in that time. Meanwhile Glen Davis and his son Austin can only burn minutes to rest the key cogs. The Spurs have a major advantage in depth; the question is whether it will materialize into something on the scoreboard. By not playing again until Wednesday the first six Clippers can be expected to top 200 minutes again, which only leaves a small window of opportunity for their reserves to be exploited.
The markets also face a difficult adjustment. In the past there would be Zig Zag takers to San Antonio, but there are some harsh realities that the Spurs are facing in this matchup. And the Totals may be extremely difficult to project throughout this series – the willingness Popovich showed to foul Jordan could easily be a factor in a close 4th quarter, which could add a lot of possessions (even if many of those FTs clank). But to pre-answer one question right up front – what do you do with the +160 in pocket? Absolutely nothing. Some may feel the inclination to find an underdog price on the Spurs today to lock up a no-lose position, but the value meter is still too far off on this series to even consider that. So for now, just don’t.
In the Sights…
There was an early MLB take in a column 11 days ago about C. C. Sabathia carrying more market reputation than his current abilities call for, and while he has actually been better than expected so far, tonight’s price calls for staying in play via #910 Detroit, on a night that could be particularly difficult for the Yankee lefthander – a gusty wind blowing out to left, and the kind of right-handed power the Tiger lineup brings, make this a difficult setting for him to pitch well. With Dellin Betances working 1 2/3 IP at Tampa yesterday, and Andrew Miller pitching on Friday and Sunday, the New York bullpen is also not laid out well.
The flip side here is that there continues to be little marketplace love for Alfredo Simon, who has now worked to a 17-10/3.35 over the past two seasons. He has been confidently throwing strikes in opening 2-0 on the road, with only two BB over 13 1/3, and the way that he has been getting ground-balls since returning to a starter’s role last year is a good fit behind a Detroit defense that has opened the season well, sitting #3 in the Major’s in PADE through the first dozen games. The Tigers bring the better offense, the better defense, a bullpen with more rest and a home field advantage, yet are being sold short (you can lay as low as -110 at a key precinct right now) because the reputations of Sabathia and Simon do not match their current realities.
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