Point Blank – April 19
The Playoff Passages, #1 (games of 4/18)
Time to begin the journey through the 2015 NBA real season, looking for those Game Inside the Game (GIG) edges that can better predict the flow as each series unfolds. Although in Round #1, some of those flows are going to be rather precarious…
Washington 93 Toronto 86 (OT), 82-82 regulation
For those that are just now sinking their teeth into the 2014-15 season, welcome to the Wizards. They have been an under-achieving side that have lacked the basketball savvy to play well game-in and game-out, and on Saturday showed the concentration lapses inside of a game that paint a rather proper portrait. But there is that upside of the talent and tenacity, with the defense (#5 during the regular season) taking over in the extra period, and for all of the inconsistencies, there is something to be said about the mentality of a group that is now 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on the playoff road the past two seasons, beating the market expectations by 78.5 points in the process.
Washington wins more with talent and tenacity than basketball acumen, and a big part of this one was an accident – after a sluggish offensive start Randy Wittman tried Paul Pierce at the #4 position, a smaller and quicker lineup that turned the game flow around in the second quarter. Pierce had a most efficient efficient afternoon, with 20 points on only 10 FG and two FT attempts, and also helping to settle the nerves of the others with his leadership. That was needed, because Bradley Beal and John Wall combined to shoot 11-41, including 1-9 triples. The fact that they won with that duo struggling so badly is a plus, but there was also the torture of watching some fingernails-on-chalkboard offensive execution down the stretch, when 74-59 at a media time-out at 8:42 made its way to 82-82 by the end of the 4th quarter.
Instead of carrying the momentum of that rally into the extra period the Raptors were nearly shutout, and in truth you could grade that they were – it was 4:31 without a point until the Wizards allowed DeMar DeRozan to drive for an uncontested dunk down 89-82, and the other Toronto O.T. basket was a gimmee lay-up by Greivis Vasquez at 0:07. The rally in the fourth was more based on what Washington did wrong than what the Raptors did right, and for the game the starting lineup shot just 15-50, including an 8-30 from DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. It was a 61-48 Wizard control of the boards that included 19 offensive caroms (Nene had seven offensive rebounds; no Toronto player had more than two), and watch closely to see if this becomes a theme – this matchup is #4 vs. #21 in terms of rebound percentage over the regular season.
This will be the prototype Zig-Zag setting that will have the markets shading Toronto for Game #2 (there should be some -5 showing up in the early trading), but while those key cogs should shoot better, a team that was outworked on the boards and only managed five steals in 53:00 (the Wizards had one stretch of 16:30 without a turnover) did not bring a floor game that inspires much confidence.
Golden State 106 New Orleans 99
The present and the future were visible in this one, and it provided for a pointspread roller coaster – Steph Curry showed why he will be this season’s MVP in helping the Warriors to jump out to a substantial lead (the Warrior starters out-scored the Pelican starters 54-26 in the first half), and then Anthony Davis showed why his mantle will be well-decorated through the years ahead in a dazzling late showing from his playoff debut.
Golden State led by as many as 25 points but did not get the money, with some uncharacteristic poor shooting at the FT line (21-34) part of that, and an inability to guard Davis in the 4th quarter taking care of the rest – the NBA’s best defense had precious few stops down the stretch, which took a 171 at 4:11 all the way to the scoreboard final of 205. That was an unexpected scramble given the Warrior command of the scoreboard at the time, but Monty Williams showed his intent by intentionally fouling Andre Iguodala down 11 at 2:21, and again down nine at 2:04.
So now let’s deal with a notion that has been speculated about here this season, and may now be the Golden State reality – the league’s best bench was greatly reduced on Saturday. It was basically a six-man rotation, with Randy Livingston limited to 13:02 and Leandro Barbosa 11:23. David Lee was unable to go because of back problems, and Marreese Speights was only on the court long enough to sneeze (0:41). Steve Kerr did not have to play it that way – with a substantial lead, there was no particular need for Draymond Green to go 42:25 and Curry 40:06, especially with the task ahead. So first file away the prospects of the shorter rotation, with more minutes from the starters, and then raise the question – was the late defensive slide an issue of fatigue, from players not accustomed to those minutes? And just what might the flow have been in Tyreke Evans had been able to log more than the 11:34 he got for the Pelicans before injuring his left knee (no MRI results yet)?
For the Pelicans it was an uphill battle without Evans, Norris Cole being forced into 33:35 because Jrue Holliday is still showing rust. There were some early nerves, which the maturing Davis explained well ("I think the whole team was nervous. This is our first time as a unit in the playoffs, and our pace was good. We were moving fast, but our minds were moving fast as well."), but with their catalyst on the court a driving force, and Williams not allowing the end-game to tick away, they showed a will to compete that may matter going forward. New Orleans will not win this series, and indeed may not win a game, but how hard the Pelicans force Golden State to work does connect into the eventual flow of the Western Conference bracket.
Chicago 103 Milwaukee 91
If you only see the upper half of the box score, you want to walk away believing that Derrick Rose brought the “buy signal” that has been missing this season. He scored 23 points over his 27:14, with seven assists and two steals, and the Bulls were +13 across those minutes. But you just can’t go there quite yet. The good news that he knocked down 3-7 from 3-point range, gets turned around by the fact that this team will not be at their best when nearly half of his 16 FG attempts were from long distance. He only had two FT attempts, those coming late in the third quarter. Playoff opponents are going to be more than content to allow Chicago possessions to end with Rose shooting from long distance.
But the quality of play, if not the exact arc, does indeed matter. In the post-game there was a confident Rose exhibiting a confidence that had been missing this season, and hints that some of the old abandon might be on the way – “I only had three goals tonight – to have fun, to have no expectations, and to compete.” And that was not lost on Joakim Noah – “It was special to watch him play like that. He was having a lot of fun out there on the court.” The Eye Test from Game #2 now goes to the Rose energy, and to see if he is able to get closer to the basket to both finish his own drives and create for others – the Bulls did turn the ball over 19 times, including four from their floor leader.
The Bucks were in the hunt on the scoreboard early, but perhaps not in reality – a surprisingly quick offensive start for each team was not what Jason Kidd wanted. Use his takeaway as a key first step in developing your Game #2 handicap – “We’re not an offensive team. That (early fast pace) set the tone in a bad way for us.” The markets are going to elevate the Total for Monday’s game off of the Saturday result, but that may not be the proper direction – do not be surprised if Kidd goes out of his way to dictate a much slower pace than an opener that produced 59 points in the 1st quarter. For his team to compete they will have to scratch and claw in a grinder; the roster just does not bring the upside for anything more.
Houston 118 Dallas 108
I was hoping for more of a learning experience here, seeing just how ready the Rockets were to play with Dwight Howard as a full part of their playoff rotation. But Howard was limited to 17:22 due to foul trouble, and because they have been without him so much this season the rest of the team was not fazed – they put seven players in double figures, maintaining a high offensive gear (at least 25 points in every quarter) on a night on which James Harden had as many assists (11) as FG attempts (though part of the latter is that he got to the FT line for 17 tries). Howard’s minutes were effective – a +12 for his stint that included 11 points, five rebounds and five blocked shots, but the team flow with him needs more scrutiny.
The Dallas team flow does not need much further scrutiny. There was an immediate take on the Rajon Rondo deal to the Mavericks in a “What a Bettor Better Know” column in December than ran counter to most takes from the Sports Mediaverse, and his showing in Game #1 pretty much summed up the outcome – the Mavericks may indeed have become a weaker team since he came on board. While most parts of his individual stat line do not look horrid, when he was on the court the team flow was simply dismal. It was a 19-8 Houston lead when Rondo was pulled for the first time at 5:39, and over the course of his 27:18 the Mavericks were out-scored by 25 points. Pro-rate that to a full game, and it would be a deficit of -44. Some of Rondo’s defense on Harden was solid, but it came at the expense of him hitting the boards – he had zero rebounds, which is usually a strength. And there is that issue on offense of teams sagging off of him to let him shoot, instead of becoming a creator. That is not lost on Kevin McHale – Rondo had by far the highest shot-per-minute ratio of any Dallas player, which is how he wants his defense to dictate the flow. There was a little burst before the half by Rondo that got Dallas into the hunt, but his second half offense was dismal.
Rick Carlisle has been through a lot of playoff games with this group, but the answers simply do not come easily this time – his defense led the NBA in made 3-pointers allowed, a problem that stems from having a short back-court rotation, and the Rockets led the league in canning triples. That turned into a 10-25 in the opener, despite Harden only contributing a 1-5, and there just isn’t much of anything on the chalkboard that can fix it. At least there is an extra day for Chandler Parsons and Devin Harris to try to heal their Saturday injuries, but this matchup simply may not work for Dallas right now.
From a Totals standpoint, take note of that late scramble, comparable a bit to New Orleans/Golden State, that was a little out of the usual NBA protocol – there were 15 points scored over the last 0:51, despite the fact that Dallas never got closer than eight.
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