Point Blank – March 31
The Clippers get the spotlight (and they may be ready for it)…For tonight, Palo Alto is actually closer to Manhattan than Norfolk is (fond memories, from a trip long ago)…
Fun for the Eye Test on TNT tonight, with the Warriors taking their nine-game win streak to the Staples Center to face the Clippers, and being installed in the underdog role for the first time in over a month, that 110-99 loss to Cleveland back on February 26 (See what a proper database does? Other sources might point out that Golden State was a dog at Denver on March 13, but you already know by faithfully coming here each day the pointspread role vs. the Nuggets that evening was of no real consequence.) And it just may well be time to make Chris Paul and his teammates “part of the discussion”, in terms of cutting down those Final’s nets in June.
No, the Clippers are not better than the Warriors. But in terms of tactical matchups they can stand up against them better than anyone in the Western Conference, and while there have since been some Golden State upgrades both in terms of coaching, and in having a healthy Andrew Bogut, the Clippers know the personnel so very well, having beaten them in seven games in the opening round of the playoffs last April. The Warriors won the playoff opener on this floor, before losing each of the tree remaining games in L.A., and combining that with their 100-86 loss here on Christmas day (no Bogut), it does bring a sense of purpose for Steve Kerr tonight – despite that comfortable lead for the overall home court throughout the playoffs, would he want to enter a potential Clipper series having lost five straight in this building?
Using that Golden State motivation as a tool in building out the importance of the setting, this could turn into playoff basketball. Which begs the question – is the recent 7-0 L.A. run (5-2 ATS, a net of +35 vs. the market expectations) a sign that the pieces have come together at the right time, or more a case of the schedule luck of the draw (the seven victims are a combined 122 games under .500)? The timing matters because it is the period of Blake Griffin’s return to the lineup, starting with a tough 100-98 loss to Houston in his first game back on March 15, and then the unblemished cycle following.
The Griffin return brought a particular focus from this end because his injury had a chance to be a positive on two fronts – first shaving 15 games off of his season, which can have him fresher at playoff time; but second in terms of developing other parts of the team when they had to play without him. Consider that second aspect a resounding success – despite an arduous scheduling stretch that had them facing 12 playoff-bound teams while Griffin was out, including eight on the road, they managed to go 9-6 SU, with one of the defeats in OT. They won at Oklahoma City, Dallas, Memphis and Chicago without him.
So they played well without one of their key cogs, and perhaps are indeed reaching a new level since his return. Yes, the schedule clouds matters, but Doc Rivers will be coaching a team into the playoffs for the eight straight season, and his feel for what is going on can be trusted - "I think our guys have finally connected the dots. When we're good defensively, we're really good offensively. That's something we've been trying to get them to see all year. ... They get it."
So what does it mean tonight? There may not be enough of an edge anywhere to reach into any pockets beforehand, with Draymond Green a question mark for the Warriors (his status reads closer to “doubtful” this morning). But in terms of the Futures markets, a Clipper win will make it tempting to walk down the aisles and browse the shelves a bit. It would get them within a game of Memphis for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, and the remaining schedule is manageable (only two of the last seven are vs. playoff teams, and one is a home affair vs. the Grizzlies). That #2 slot is valuable, because it likely translates into an opening series vs. Dallas, a team that instills no fears these days. And if the Clippers win tonight, splitting the season 2-2 vs. Golden State, they will fear the Warriors less than anyone outside of perhaps Cleveland. Yes, Stephen Curry can win the MVP, and it would be deserved. But he isn’t better than Paul. Tonight offers that brilliant individual matchup, and sets the stage for what could be a special head-to-head two months from now.
In the Sights…
I think there is some perspective in play that matters when #771 Stanford faces Old Dominion in the NIT night-cap in Madison Square Garden. While the early rounds of this tourney are often inconsistent affairs played by teams with varying degrees of motivation (and crowd counts – Stanford’s last two home wins drew a combined 2,881), there is absolutely something that happens when the bright lights of both Manhattan, and Madison Square Garden, are in play.
To digress a bit, largely because the memories are fond, I got a chance to experience what those lights mean to someone that is around the age of these players back in 1981, while working my way through college as a sportswriter. The newspaper (the Uniontown Herald-Standard) was in southwest Pennsylvania, but the city was a 25-minute drive to the University of West Virginia campus, and since the sports editor was a WVU grad, it was not difficult to talk him into getting me credentials for the NIT semi-finals, West Virginia vs. Tulsa and Paul Pressy in the opener, and Purdue (Joe Barry Carroll) vs. Syracuse (Leo Rautins/Danny Schayes) in the nightcap. It was a Monday night of high-level basketball, coming at a time in which the NCAA field was still at 48 (all four of those teams would have made the current field). Being able to ride to New York for a cheap price on a WVU student bus also made it palatable for the newspaper budget.
The MSG atmosphere that night was humbling to someone that had only turned 20 a few months prior, especially with Syracuse fans helping to pack the house, and it made it easy to understand the impact it can have on the players. Unfortunately WVU lost 89-87 in a well-played thriller (I remember my lead being about how "Gale Catlett's Mountaineers may have had to close after their opening night on Broadway, but only after some great reviews came in..."). So my stay was a short one, but I still have the press badge in a desk drawer. At that age, there is an impact that becomes significant for the memory banks.
Which is why I believe it matters tonight. You can be confident that Stanford will be confident. In their freshman seasons, Stefan Nastic, Anthony Brown, Chasson Randle and Wade Morgan were part of a Cardinal run to win the NIT crown, getting decisive wins on this floor over Massachusetts and Minnesota by a combined 34 points. Part of being so well-set for that showing was having played Oklahoma State and Syracuse in the Garden back in November of that campaign. Then LY there were a pair of games at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, before that Sweet 16 run, and earlier this season they faced UNLV and Duke over in Brooklyn again. This is a veteran cast that starts three seniors (Brown and Nastic being in their fifth seasons), and is more than accustomed to making this kind of trip.
The same can not be said for Old Dominion. The Monarchs are younger, bring much less size, and a team that does not score easily not only faces the pressures of the bright lights, but also the tighter NBA rims. They had to scratch and claw to survive to this point, either being tied or trailing in the final 20 seconds vs. both Murray State and Illinois State in the last two rounds, and the ability to play their best under this setting is something that can be questioned. As such, no surprise at all if a more relaxed Stanford eventually takes command.
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Prepping for the Final Four –
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