Point Blank – March 26
After a little Visine, the NBA night that was (the Eye Test works overtime)…When “Home Cooking” means standing in line at a soup kitchen…WVU/Kentucky, and “The Game Inside the Game”…
Many of you are likely to be watching every minute of tonight’s Sweet 16 matchups, with plenty of drama unfolding in Cleveland and Los Angeles. But that will be nothing compared to last night’s NBA marathon, an evening filled with major issues as the Power Ratings get fine-tuned as the playoff approach. It was a card that brought confusion as much as clarity, the anticipated eye chart becoming a Rorschach on a few occasions. And along the way, if you had bet a few home teams, your bankroll would have taken a hit. So let’s get to work.
Item: The Road Teams went 12-1 SU and ATS
That marked the single best performance by visiting teams in NBA history, based on nights on which there were at least 10 games played. Seven road dogs won outright, and they were collectively +96.5 ATS across those games, yet even more impressive when you consider that the one home team that did cover, San Antonio, eclipsed the spread by 31.5 in doing so.
So what does that all mean? Nothing. Next…
Item: The Hawks did it with Defense
In Tuesday’s column (you can grab it from archives at the bottom of the page) there was a take on how an awkward schedule had derailed the Atlanta momentum, but also that Monday offered a day to sit and look at film for the first time in several weeks. The players came away from that session focused on tightening a defense that had recently lost its way, and that is exactly what happened last night in that 95-83 win at Orlando.
Pay particular attention to that game flow. The Hawks once again struggled early on that end of the court, trailing 31-23 after one quarter. Entering the game on an 0-3 slide in which they had allowed 117 ppg, and 120 PP100, it was the kind of opening gambit that could have created a real crisis on confidence. Instead they dug in, allowing only 31 points in the second half, and in a 22-2 run from 6:33 to 0:55 of the fourth quarter, they were back to being the team that had been in evidence up to the All Star break. Yes, playing the Magic helped, but it is possible that whatever issues there were for the collective Atlanta psyche may have been resolved in that late stretch.
Item: Memphis waved a white flag (damn was Cleveland good)
When you think of the Grizzlies those notions of grit, determination and toughness come to mind, perhaps more than with any other team in the league. As such, seeing Dave Joerger wave a white flag was an admission by him as to just how good the Cavaliers were last night, and that attempting to fight back was not a worthy option.
Cleveland took control early and the chemistry of the starting five was superb on both ends of the court – there were early visions of those nights on which LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love would also score 20 or more, and this was one of them. They were so dominant that no Memphis player was on the floor for longer than 27:26, with the starters combining for only 120:03, just three ticks above half of the game. Zach Randolph finished with five points and three rebounds.
Does this create a short-term crisis of confidence for the Grizzlies? Does it tell them that they are not really good enough to win it all? It makes their home game vs. Golden State a major one for the Friday Eye Test – Joerger perhaps could not pick a better opponent to come in next, in terms of giving his team the opportunity to exorcise last night’s demons. Of course if they lose again on Friday…
Item: Dwight wasn’t right (yet), but the Rockets rallied anyway
The return of Dwight Howard, and a 95-93 Houston win at New Orleans, might quickly look like a positive correlation. Be careful with that. There could still be some chemistry issues in his assimilation going forward, and last night’s opening minutes were nearly disastrous – they fell down by 17 points before some solid defense, and the offensive chemistry of James Harden scoring 25, Trevor Ariza 22 and Donatas Motiejunas 21, brought them all the way back. As for Howard, it was four points and seven rebounds across 16:27 minutes. I am often not a fan of some of Kevin McHale’s tactical decisions, but his handling of Howard last night was solid. A little at a time, until it all seems to fit.
Now the * behind the win – Anthony Davis went 6-14 from the FT for the Pelicans. He entered the game shooting 82.8 percent at the stripe. It bothered him so much that he went back out on the court, still in uniform, to shoot 100 FTs after the game was over. As such, the takeaway is that the Rockets won a game they did not necessarily have to, and Howard’s contributions were minimal. Proceed cautiously.
Item: Tony Parker and the Spurs kicked up their heels
Earlier in March there was a take on these pages about Tony Parker that was two-fold – how he had been struggling on the second night of back-to-back games, and also Gregg Popovich’s statement that the Spurs would only go as far this year as Parker’s game could lead them. He is the one piece that must be on to set up the game flow. Since then the schedule has been a most favorable one, both in terms of quality of competition and the amount of rest, which created a spotlight for Wednesday, the Spurs playing only their second back-to-back in the entire month of March. The result was enlightening.
Parker was so good that he only need to be on the court for 27:30, knocking down 10-14 shots on this way to 21 points, with six assists, six rebounds, three steals and zero turnovers. San Antonio out-played the Thunder by a tick more than a point-a-minute (+28) when he was on the floor. That is magnified because he was up against Russell Westbrook, and the one-on-one battle was a mismatch – Westbrook shot 5-16, could not stay in font of Parker on defense, and turned in a -30 across his 25:52 stint.
Are the Spurs back? You might not want to issue that stamp yet, because the recent schedule has been so favorable. But Parker appears to be, and let that be your guide.
Item: Denver 76 Philadelphia 72 End of 3rd Quarter; Philadelphia 99-85 final
Just what the hell do we do with this? The Nuggets had been playing decent ball under Melvin Hunt, in his audition to become the full-time HC. In their last game they had won at Orlando by 19, and they had two full days to prepare for this one, while also having Thursday off. Meanwhile the 76ers were in that dreaded sequence of having to face Sacramento in the Pacific time zone on Tuesday, then losing an hour on the way to Denver to play at that altitude. So when the Nuggets rallied from a halftime deficit to take the lead in the third quarter, weren’t they supposed to take control and break it open? That did not happen.
Given the setting, the 27-9 dominance by Philly in the fourth quarter has to go down as one of the single most difficult stanzas of the season to understand. There was the unexpected showcase from Robert Covington, who knocked down six triples on his way to 25 points, but the most impressive elements were the effort plays – they had 12 blocked shots and 14 steals, holding the Nuggets to a miserly 86.1 PP100. A game that was knotted at 81 at 4:00 got closed out 18-4 by the tired team, not the fresh one.
Hunt’s take after the game? – “There are some basketball icons rolling over in their graves right now.” And could another performance or two like that have someone begin carving up a tombstone for his stint in the prime chair on the sidelines? This is yet another follow-up that bears watching closely.
In the Sights…
There is an equation inside of West Virginia/Kentucky that I believe can be exploited tonight. While the Mountaineers scramble their way to points off of those frenetic presses, when that is not happening it is actually an abysmal offense, and it would not be hyperbole to call one aspect of this setting one of the biggest mismatches in the Sweet 16 in many years. So let’s put it to use – West Virginia Team Total Under 61.5.
Here is how it the particular matchup shapes up on Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted ratings, and these tables absolutely match the last five months of the Eye Test:
WVU Offense KY Defense
2-point efficiency #251 #2
3-point efficiency #272 #1
Possession Length #252 #314
Note both key aspects are in play in terms of holding a team down – not only are the Mountaineers going to struggle to make shots when they have to run their offense, but they are going to struggle to merely find shots. That possession length has many of those transition baskets factored in, which means the half-court sets often take longer than the count shown above. Tonight it would be no surprise if they went deep into the clock on many occasions.
It is simply a dismal matchup for Bob Huggins and his team in terms of finding points, having to shoot over significantly taller players in every matchup (except when Tyler Ulis is on the floor). And they are going to have to make those shots in an arena they have not played in before. Let’s call for them to be held into the 50’s, especially with the likely game flow having Kentucky with a comfortable enough lead so that there is not a lot of late scrambling.
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As the Round of 32 becomes the Sweet 16, here are the reviews from the weekend action, with plenty of food for though as the Thursday and Friday tipoff’s approach –
The Tourney Journey #7 – Sweet 16 sugar to the winners, while a Top Seed shoots its own foot…Has Calipari shortened his rotation…Survive and Advance, the Sequel?...Tokoto, took control…Irish eyes were smiling (though some had to hold back tears)…
The Tourney Journey #8 – Eight more spoons full of Sugar (none helping San Diego State’s shots go down)…The legacy guys bring out their membership cards…Archie Miller was right, it just worked out wrong…”Rock, Shock, Jayhawk” becomes the new Sunflower State chant…
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