Point Blank – February 27
The Last Rodeo?...If J.R. wants a ring…Revisiting the “Magic” formula…Rebels with a cause…
It would not have been a surprise last June if Tim Duncan, and possibly Manu Ginobli as well, had announced their retirement from the NBA, after that dominating Finals win over Miami. They could have gone out on top, with a high degree of dignity. But they chose to give it another run, and this time there will not be a curtain call in June; perhaps not even in May. The current road trip while the “San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo” takes over may indeed prove to be The Last Rodeo for this bunch.
The Spurs were good enough before the All Star break, checking in at 34-19, and alive to win the Southwest Division. Given how much experience the roster possesses, I would have placed them as among the most likely to handle the longer break well, and having never had a losing rodeo trip since this cycle began in 2003, this would not have appeared the time for that pattern to change.
Since the break, however, it has been a dismal 0-4 SU and ATS in which they have fallen 32 points below the market expectations, a full 8.0 per game. And the first losing rodeo trip has been clinched. Yes, there was one genuinely brutal setting, having to face the Warriors on the road the night after opening back up against the Clippers in L.A., but the other three games were certainly within their reach – they were favored in two of them. Outside of DeAndre Jordan’s free throw shooting keeping them in the hunt against the Clippers, they bowed out quietly at Golden State (trailed by as many as 22), Utah (trailed by as many as 15) and Portland (trailed by as many as 19).
There is indeed a lot of pride in that locker room, which the betting markets will certainly respect, but there may be harsh realities that make any kind of turnaround unlikely. First is the natural issue of age, exacerbated by playing into June in back-to-back years. Second is the fact that because they extended those last two seasons so long it gave the rest of the league a chance to watch them in full detail, grasping more of Gregg Popovich’s X’s and O’s. But third, and most important right now, is Tony Parker.
Here is what Popovich had to say about his veteran PG, back on February 17, right before the All Star break - “If he’s not the Tony Parker of past years, we’re not going anywhere. His aggressiveness is a huge key for us, because of his ability to penetrate and get to the rim, and he hasn’t done that like he has in the past. It’s because of a lack of confidence in that leg and a lack of conditioning, a combination of those two things. There are not many nights when Timmy (Duncan) or Manu (Ginobili) or going to get 26 or 28, but the teams we are playing have a lot of those guys. Tony is our guy and we need that back.”
It has not come back for Parker. While he was fresh against the Clippers after getting more than a week off, since then it may have been the worst stretch of basketball in his NBA career – over the last three games he has made only 3-21 from the field, with more turnovers (10) than points (9). In his 69:11 of playing time across those games, the Spurs have lost the scoreboard by 32 points.
There is a window of opportunity ahead – they may be favored in 10 of their next 11 games, and if they build up enough momentum to be the chalk against Cleveland on March 11 it could indeed be 11 straight. They may catch a break with DeMarcus Cousin’s ankle at Sacramento tonight, and actually could be a fit in this one if not too much adjustment, with much better chemistry than George Karl’s remaining pieces. But the way that they have fallen on this trip has been real – a team giving it their all and coming up far short. If the markets react the wrong way to what may appear like a San Antonio “surge” in the cycle ahead, something the Sports Mediaverse can not help but perpetrate, there could be some opportunity to play against the Spurs when the level of competition steps back up again.
About Last Night…
For all of the deserved accolades that will go to LeBron James after his 42-point, 11-rebound outing in that 110-99 Cleveland win over Golden State, some of the lesser numbers also stand out, especially when it comes to defense. J. R. Smith and Iman Shumpert were superb on that end, a big part of why Warrior guards Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa shot a combined 12-39. Make sure you note that, instead of only filing away the 1-8 shooting from the Smith/Shumpert duo at the other end.
Smith in particular is a fascinating case study right now. While his quick trigger from long range become the main point of his reputation over the years, he can be a first-rate defender when the mood strikes. It often did not, when he was with also-rans. But last night he played 35:45, with Cleveland going +12 over those minutes, despite only making a single shot in his five attempts. Instead it was Smith’s floor game that mattered, with five assists, four rebounds and four steals. It was the second straight game in which he had more steals than made baskets, and if he continues that sense of purpose of wanting a championship ring more than any personal offensive numbers, he becomes a more important cog in this machine than many will realize. If Kyrie Irving can not go tonight, and it becomes a Smith/Shumpert starting back-court, the markets may struggle to get the Total in the right place (Under value begins at 199).
In the Sights, NBA…
Time to keep the focus on Orlando. On Wednesday there was a detailed look at how James Borrego was genuinely trying to instill something, instead of just mailing the rest of the season in as interim HC, and how the players appeared to be buying in. The talk was about defense and toughness and that defense was solid against Miami in that OT loss, except for two late triples from Henry Walker, which combined with some missed Magic FTs to force OT, and eventually defeat.
That put the aftermath in the spotlight, and there was exactly the kind of anger and frustration exhibited that you would want to see from a team playing with a sense of purpose. Starting with the players. First Nikola Vucevic - “We feel like we had them and we should have closed out the game. I take the blame for this one. I think I made some big mistakes at the end of the game and overtime - some turnovers and some missed shots that I think I should have made. As one of the best players on this team, I should have made those plays, and I feel like I let my team down.” Then Tobias Harris - “It’s very disappointing. We had the game. In no way should we walk out of here with a loss tonight. But we’ve just got to learn from it and get better from it.” And Victor Oladipo - “We’re sick of being up and giving the game away like we did. We’re tired of it, so we’ve got to correct it.”
And finally Borrego - “This group has found an identity, a rhythm. I’m just proud of their spirit, the way they fight, the way they stay together. And the message is stay together, hold each other up. This is going to sting. It’s going to sting tonight. It’s going to sting even more in the morning.”
The full-season data-bases will be slow to catch up with these defensive improvements – Orlando is allowing 91.7 per game with Borrego as HC. That brings some Under value tonight at Atlanta, where the Hawks only have the focus of winning and moving on, with a trip to Miami up for Saturday night. They have played Under the Total by a collective 47 points in their first three games post-break, and expect game management to be a big part of the program for Mike Budenholzer between now and the start of the playoffs.
In the Sights, NCAA…
#545 Mississippi (Saturday, 2 PM Eastern) is the epitome of a “tough out” on paper, and the Rebels have been just that on the court. With four upperclassmen starting, (including two seniors), good scoring balance, and plenty of depth (10 players averaging 14 minutes or more in SEC play), the ingredients are there. On the floor they play good defense, allowing 41.8 percent shooting in league games; are +23 in rebounds and +32 in turnover margin across those 15 contests; nd they do not leave many points off the scoreboard at the FT line, connecting at 77.8 percent. So not only would it not be a surprise that they are 10-5 in the SEC, but with the five losses coming by a combined total of 14 points in regulation, they are not far from being 15-0.
The Rebels have not lacked in road poise and confidence, winning at Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn, Florida and Mississippi State, and that bitter OT loss at Kentucky could easily have swung had not Stefan Moody had to leave in the extra session with cramps. Yet somehow they have lacked sex appeal throughout the campaign, beating the market expectations by 67.5 points in their conference road games. As such, it is easy to go to the well with those veterans against a young LSU team that can be fragile as a favorite, losing four conference games outright in the role, and having to go to OT to escape vs. Georgia in another.
Motivation is easy for the Rebels, who shot only 34.6 percent in falling 75-71 at home to the Tigers earlier, an evening in which they won the floor game (18 more FG attempts vs. seven fewer FTs, which is a big advantage), but could not get shots to drop. There are no matchup elements for them to overcome, so the points being offered are a nice cushion in a game that the road team brings the moxie to win outright.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Hoops Review
Tuesday: Sorting through some First Impressions…Objects in the 76ers rear-view mirror are not closer than they are…Stan Van Gundy adjusts the engine in Detroit…
Wednesday: What now, for the Bulls…The Psychology of Athletes, #101 (Do the Magic have a new sense of purpose?)…Ed Cooley’s Bracketology…A Cyclone warning, on the Wednesday board…
Thursday: Overtime, for a Basketball Coroner (those Wednesday Post-Mortems are going to take a while)…Larry Brown knows more about basketball than Josh Pastner likely ever will…