Point Blank – February 26
Overtime, for a Basketball Coroner (those Wednesday Post-Mortems are going to take a while)…Larry Brown knows more about basketball than Josh Pastner likely ever will…
Each day in any sport cycle there may not be a more important task than doing a proper Post Mortem, breaking down each game in minute detail to find the real keys to the scoreboard reading as it did, in order to develop the best possible power ratings going forward, and the feel for ebbs and flows that go outside of the numbers. Many of those “morning after” items get shared in this column, but Wednesday’s board created something comparable to sorting through the rubble of a train wreck. So have plenty of fresh surgical gloves available, because this will take a while. Here are just a few, working in schedule order -
Item: Orlando 83 Miami 77, at 0:37
Miami 93 Orlando 90, final
Yesterday there was a take (link below) on the “buy in” that may have been taking place in Orlando, with the Magic genuinely seeming to take to interim HC James Borrego, and his focus on playing better interior defense. And that defense was indeed solid against the Heat, holding them to a 91.1 PP100, on 38.1 percent shooting. Had they held on in the end-game it might have made it even easier for them to build momentum. But for the game Miami was 6-31 from 3-point range, yet two of them were knocked down by Henry Walker (yes, Henry Walker, who was 0-9 on all other 3-pointers in the game) on the last two Heat possessions, which combined with some missed Orlando FTs (a miserable 18-31 on the night), led to the regulation tie. And then the OT failure.
The Magic did a lot of the things right that they set out to do, but still lost. It will be important to watch the follow-up for this young group to see if there is any loss of confidence. They could be a tempting underdog in the days ahead to compete to the finish in most games, but the polish to actually break through and win may have to wait until next season. The question is whether they can win enough of those games for Borrego to be the guy in charge when that training camp rolls around.
Item: Atlanta 104 Dallas 87
Despite being without Rajon Rondo, Tyson Chandler, Amar’e Stoudemire and Chandler Parsons, the Mavericks bolted to a 34-22 lead after one period, then were absolutely crushed the rest of the way, firing an inept 5-31 from 3-point range. Do those personnel absences make this a throw-away? Or was their something missing in the will in the second half, when there was little competitive fire, that indicates more about the assimilation problems of bringing those new veteran faces on board?
Item: Minnesota 97 Washington 77
Like Dallas, the Wizards jumped out early on the road, leading 20-11 after the first quarter. Also like the Mavericks, a short-handed roster broke down badly the rest of the way. The struggles have been mighty without Bradley Beal, and last night Paul Pierce was also held out. It will not just be a matter of Beal physically returning soon, but of the team regaining a lost swagger – in an 0-4 SU and ATS slide since the All Star break, they have fallen to the market expectations by a shocking 72 points.
Item: Milwaukee 61 Philadelphia 32, halftime
Milwaukee 104 Philadelphia 88, final
It was noted earlier in the week the major contrast between the way that the 76ers were playing going into the break, and they way they have failed to respond since. A team that was showing a seemingly legitimate defensive chemistry had been able to claw its way to wins in eight of 21 games in one stretch, and 17 of the 21 played Under the Total. That group has not returned from the break. While the final score looks bad enough, make sure you note that 61-32 advantage for the Bucks at halftime, and the 32 assists they accumulated for the game. Michael Carter-Williams made a lot happen in his debut, with seven points, eight assists and two steals over 17:31, but did not need to play more than that against his former team because the game was so well in hand. In going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS since the break, Philadelphia is allowing 108 ppg.
Item: Charlotte 98 Chicago 86
In yesterday’s take on the loss of Derrick Rose, there was much focus on how ineffective he had been this season but also that “The more genuine question might actually be the psychological impact, which could well carry more weight than his physical abilities”. For one game, that was certainly the case – the Bulls were flat and listless against a mediocre Charlotte team, and instead of taking control of a close game down the stretch they were soundly out-played. The Hornets led by two entering the final stanza, but ran it out to 17, before the final margin closed a bit. If this was to be a “Championship or Bust” season in Chicago, does the rest of the team bring an ability to re-adjust their sights and still play hard? That will be a prime issue going forward.
Item: Sacramento 62 Memphis 52, halftime
Memphis 77 Sacramento 76, end of 3rd
Sacramento 102 Memphis 90, final
Memphis could be excused for coming out flat at Sacramento, off of key road wins over the Trail Blazers and Clippers over the previous three nights. So falling behind by 10 at halftime was not a shock, and when the Grizzlies came back to take the lead heading into the fourth quarter, you could predict the pattern – the better team takes a slap, fights back to take control, and wins the game. That didn’t happen. Instead the Kings played their best defensive quarter of the season, controlling the final stanza 26-13, almost the direct opposite of what the expectation would have been. Mark it down as the first key moment under George Karl, something that not only happened ahead of schedule, but in a particular way that would also have been difficult to anticipate.
Item: Portland 102 San Antonio 88
A deeper post-mortem for the Spurs will be coming tomorrow, but another dismal loss drops them to 0-4 SU and ATS since the break, falling to the expectations by a collective 32 points. They are giving the considered impression that back-to-back journeys into June have taken their legs away, and also perhaps something else – as the rest of the league got extended chances to sit back and watch them play, have they also been figured out?
Item: Virginia 70 Wake Forest 34
You could begin this breakdown by calling it one of the five best games any team in Division I has played this season, and not find many counters. But for the Cavaliers to do with they did without Justin Anderson or London Perrantes, was remarkable. It was simply brilliant team basketball – no player scored more than 11 points, but 11 got into the scoring column, and eight had at least one assist. Meanwhile the defense held Wake to .52 PPP, which is almost impossible for a team of that level playing at home. If not necessarily the best overall team performance of the season, at least call it the best-coached, with Tony Bennett deserving any accolade you could throw at him.
Item: Northwestern held Indiana without a point for 10:06 of the second half…
And won 72-65. It tells us much about what happens when a struggling team has a little bit of success – the buy-in afterwards becomes so much easier. The Wildcats had won three straight prior to hosting the Hoosiers, much of that through a zone defense, and when you win with a particular tactic you begin to believe. Here is how much the psychological part can mean – while a four-game conference win streak might not be news in many places, Northwestern had not accomplished that since 1967, when the parents of some of the current players may not have even been born (not enough time this morning to look that up).
Item: Dayton 76 George Mason 63
Just some follow-up from Monday, noting the fatigue of the Dayton team as their short roster continued to log too many minutes in Atlantic 10 play. While last night’s game fell right around the number and might not cause a second look, note once again the alarming sub-plot – after Duquesne won the boards and shot 52.5 percent against the Flyers on Saturday, George Mason won the boards and shot 53.1 percent last night. The Patriots were simply too weak on defense to make it a closer game, but in what should have been the easiest remaining test for Archie Miller and Dayton, each of the starters had to go at least 33 minutes.
Item: Iowa State 64 Baylor 57, at 7:22
Baylor 79 Iowa State 70, final
As noted in yesterday’s column, Iowa State was in a prime revenge setting against Baylor, and Fred Hoiberg had a strong history against Scott Drew, including 4-0 SU and ATS in Hilton Coliseum. So when the teams went into the penultimate media timeout with the Cyclones up seven, there was the appearance of the game playing to form. What happened after that timeout was a spin of the Basketball Roulette wheel – over a span of 2:38, the Bears made three-point shots on five straight possessions, turning it around to 72-66. Some nights, regardless of matchups or motivations, teams simply make shots, and Baylor knocked down 14-26 beyond the arc in the game, out-scoring State by 18 in a category that the Cyclones would have been favored to win. But it was not a case of one player going off, with four different Bears making multiple triples. That was impressive from a team standpoint, but nothing like what happened at Miami…
Item: Miami F. 62 Florida State 44 at 4:46, and you might have switched the channel to a closer game…
Had you done so, you would have missed something for the ages. Florida State’s Xavier Rathan-Mayes has a chance to be a good player in time, but in his freshman season he was suffering the growing pains that could be expected in a conference like the ACC – he entered last night averaging 12.8 ppg, on 39.6 percent shooting, including just 22.6 from 3-point range. Yet what he did against the Hurricanes was astonishing.
Rathan-Mayes simply went off, scoring 26 consecutive FSU points over a span of 3:43, and 30 of their final 33 points over the final 4:46, when that 18-point deficit was cut all the way to two, before the 81-77 final. He was simply brilliant, and either scored or assisted on the last 38 Seminole points. But what the hell do we do with the power ratings? Florida State does not necessarily get an upgrade, because this will not happen again. The Miami defense does not have to get a downgrade, because on many of those shots there was not a whole lot more the Hurricanes could have done. It was a sequence that defies comprehension, and may be one in which comprehension is not necessarily needed going forward. And it was also one that you might have missed, if you used your remote to switch to the Duke/Virginia Tech thriller in Blacksburg that was taking place around the same time…
Item: Jhalil Okafor returns, and scores a career-high, but Duke has to go to O.T.
Duke was terrific against Clemson without Jhalil Okafor on Saturday, and it was reminiscent of that major first-half surge the Blue Devils put together against Notre Dame, when he was idled by foul trouble. So if they play well without him, if he returns and scores 30 points, on 72.2 percent shooting, it should mean big things, right? Instead it was a struggle, with Tech having the final full possession in regulation with a chance to win it.
The problem is one that does bear tracking as March approaches – while Okafor’s combination of strength and agility makes him a major offensive force near the basket, his defense lags far behind on the other end. Might Duke indeed be a better defensive team without him? The Hokies shot 53.4 percent last night, and had 18 assists. On defense, he is still a freshman, and that matters with a smaller lineup around him that requires more of a paint presence than he is bringing.
And that is just part of the night that was. There is plenty of looking back still to be done, but while that is taking place, how about something that you can look forward with -
In the Sights…
Since this is the first Point Blank seasonal run through of the College Hardwoods, it means introducing particular topics that will not need to be repeated much in the future. Like if you get to play Larry Brown in a near pick’em range against Josh Pastner, you just do it. It is a matchup of one of the true tactical masters in the history of the sport against a young guy that can recruit good players, but has shown little ability to develop them, having been given a major HC position before he was ready. And there are aspects tonight that make it even more intriguing – Pastner has to make up some gaps virtually across the board.
One of your keys at this time of the schedule is to focus on conference-only stats, which eliminates games in which teams may have been flat, or experimenting with combinations, back in November and December. And it makes the “difficulty of opposition” tables naturally come in pretty close. As such, what #545 SMU and Memphis have done across 29 AAC games (15 for the Mustangs) carries a lot of meaning. And it is SMU winning across the board in terms of shot-making, shot-defending, rebounding, and net turnover margin. And that pretty much sums up basketball -
SMU Memphis
FG% 49.7 44.6
Opp FG% 38.0 40.0
FTs 67.7 65.4
Reb% 54.4 51.3
Net TOs +28 +4
Pastner may have to be better than Brown with the X’s and O’s to close those gaps enough to win a game. Their respective resumes make that a different percentage than the current betting lines are calling for. And it bears noting that after Brown got his system installed in the first season with the Mustangs, it has been at 14-8 ATS run in games in which the closing line was 6 or less, with SMU being either the favorite or the underdog the last two campaigns. When it looks close to the markets on paper, Brown has been consistently making the right decisions on the court to exceed the expectations. It would certainly not be a surprise if he did it again.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Hoops Review
Tuesday: Sorting through some First Impressions…Objects in the 76ers rear-view mirror are not closer than they are…Stan Van Gundy adjusts the engine in Detroit…
Wednesday: What now, for the Bulls…The Psychology of Athletes, #101 (Do the Magic have a new sense of purpose?)…Ed Cooley’s Bracketology…A Cyclone warning, on the Wednesday board…